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GLOBALFXSTRATEGYCamillaSutton,CFA,CMTEricTheoretDailyForeignExchangeUpdateChiefCurrencyStrategistCurrencyStrategist(416)8665470(416)8637030Monday,May9,2011Camilla_Sutton@scotiacapital.comEric_Theoret@scotiacapital.com
MARKETOPENSRETRACINGSOMEOFLASTWEEKLOSSESGERMANEXPORTSARESTRONGSOOTHINGFEARSCADisrecoveringsomelostgroundonstrongercommoditiesandaweakerUSD;Friday’semploymentreleaseshouldsoothsomefears.EURfearsoverGreekexitdonotcometofruition,soothingfears.EUR ‐ahealthycorrectionlastweek;butfundamentalsarenotbroken.Germanyreportedstrongexportsdata;thisweek’sfocusisCPIandGDP.JPYdovishBoJminutesandriskappetiteweighingonyentoday.CNYexportdatatobereleasedintomorrow’sAsiansessionandtheUSChinaSEDcouldprovidesomemarketvolatility.Thisweek’sfocuswillbeFedspeak,USinflationandtradingpatterns.FXMarketUpdateMarketsarestabilizingfollowinglastweek’sbroadbasedselloffinrisk.Commoditiesarestronger,equitiesarepointingtoapositiveopenandtheUSDisgenerallyweaker.Incurrencies,theNordicsarethestrongestperformersagainsttheUSDasweapproachtheNorthAmericanopen,followedbyAUD,EUR,CHF,CADandNZD.GBPisflatonaweakenedeconomicoutlookandJPYisweakerasaresultofdovishBoJminutes.TheStrategicEconomicDialogue(SED)betweenChinaandtheUSwillbeanimWHOISMOSTEXPOSEDTOPIGDEBTportantmarketeventthisweek,givenongoingfrictionoverthepaceoftheEURBnCNY’sappreciation.China’stradebalance,tobereleasedintheAsiansession,isanothereagerlyawaiteddatarelease.E.T.WhatchangedforEURlastweek:Extendedpositioninghasbeenshakenoutofthemarket.TheECBhassignaledthatitisunlikelytoincreaseinterestratesinJune,buthasleftthedooropentoasummerhike.IndiaandMalaysiahavebothincreasedinterestrates,fightinginflationheadon,butpotentiallyweighingongrowth.ThepatternofUSeconomicdataisincreasinglyunevenagainof244kjobsonnonfarm,butanincreaseintheunemploymentrateto9.0%;softnessintheISMnonmanufacturingcomposite,butongoingstrengthinthemanufacturingindex.Source:BIS,ECB,TheEconomist,ScotiaFXStrategyWhatdidnotchangeforEURlastweekalot:Asiancentralbanksaretighteninginterestrates,whichmightinducesomemoderationingrowthandinflation,butshouldlaythefoundationECBSMPPURCHASESAPPEARTOHAVESTOPPEDformediumtermfinancialstability.TheECBremainsinatighteningcycle.Withinflationarypressuresbuilding,itwilllikelyhikeinterestratesseveraltimesthisyear.TheFedseesheadlinepressuresastransitory,isfacingunemploymentlevelsof9%,anunevenpatternofgrowthandownsover20%oftheUSTreasurymarket.InterestratespreadsarelikelytomovefurtheragainsttheUSDthisyear.TheUScontinuestostrugglewithprovidingacrediblefiscalplan.ThereareongoingproblemsinEurope,butauthoritieshavedisplayedanunprecedentedcommitmenttosupportingtheperipherycountries.NoneofthislaysoutanenvironmentwherethevaluationoftheUSDshouldrisematerially.WeholdayearendEURforecastof1.50.C.S.AmericasUSDCAD(0.9645)CADhasgained0.3%sinceFriday’scloseandisamidperformer.Overthelastthreesessions,CADhasheldinreasonablywell,WehavelaunchedadailyEmergingAsianFXstrategypublication.Ifyouareinterestedinbeingaddedtothisdistributionlist,pleaseemailSacha_tihanyi@scotiacapital.com
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