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Colorado Springs - Impact of Terrorism on Future Mortality Assumptions

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Colorado Springs - Impact of Terrorism on Future Mortality Assumptions

Publié par :
Ajouté le : 05 juillet 2011
Lecture(s) : 45
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1
SOA Scenario Presentation
Scenarios
P Bishop, 4/22/02
The following are scenarios on plausible outcomes to the attacks of September 11 and the ensuing war on
terrorism.
The left-hand column briefly describes each scenario and the right hand column extracts the dimensions
of uncertainty inherent in that scenario.
International Study on Counterterrorism, the Millennium Project, a global
foresight project sponsored by the American Council of the United Nations
University (
http://www.geocities.com/~acunu//millennium/antiterrorism.html
)
Drivers, uncertainties
ESCALATION:
A long war involving attack and counter attack through
biological and nuclear saber rattling. The poppy fields of Afghanistan are
attacked with Agent Orange to dry up a principal source of terrorist income. But it
is a long war. (Gordon)
War
-
- escalation vs
stalemate vs decline
Length
-
- short vs long
COUNTER MINDSET:
Political Islamisists saw secular Western capitalism as
reducing everything to a commodity, reinforcing individualism and greed, and
arrogantly running financial and political rules of the world to American's benefit.
They believed that Islam’s mission was now to set the world right. The strategies
followed by the international community addressed this mindset. Television,
radio, software, magazine, music materials were designed to reinforce the idea
that this was a war against terrorism and promoted the restoration of the right and
proper image of Islam. A "Global Partnership for Development" gave reason for
people not to be sympathetic with terrorists. In short, this was an “intellectual
arms race” (Glenn)
Islamic relation with
West
-
- better vs
same vs worse
Islamic influence on
West
-
- some vs none
ROOT CAUSES:
The US led military war against terrorism failed to end
terrorism. The US proposed a different global strategy involving the provision of
minimal standards of health, education, services and housing, worldwide. After a
short period of expansion and association with other social radical movements,
terrorism started to lose ground. A strong emphasis was placed on education by
nations of the world to reduce inequality in access to work opportunities and to
attain an acceptable standard of living on a global basis. (Gutierrez)
US military objectives
-
-
succeed vs fail
US response
-
- force vs
development
Terrorism
-
- more vs
same vs less
SOCRATIC JUSTICE:
The US used all of the powers that the UN could offer.
The US ratified the International Criminal Court and encouraged other nations to
do so. The US brought captured terrorists and criminals to the Court and then
focused on new modes of international cooperation. (Gordon)
Response
-
- unilateral
(U.S.) vs multilateral
(U.N.)
THE WILD WEST:
US and Allied military strikes led to endless escalation in a
war that apparently was won, but over time sped up the process of decline, with
terror meeting terror. The CIA got back into business on a big scale. Nations
already poor became poorer. (Inayatullah)
War
-
- won vs stalemate
vs lost
Result for poor countries
-
- better vs same vs
worse
Un pour Un
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