European environment outlook.

Agence Europeenne Pour L'Environnement

Description

Copenhague. http://temis.documentation.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/document.xsp?id=Temis-0065980

Sujets

• Environnement
• Agriculture
• Consommation
• Déchet
• Énergie
• Population
• Protection de l'environnement
• Transport

Informations

• Publié par: temis-developpement-durable
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2005
• Nombre de lectures: 20
• Licence : En savoir +
  Paternité, pas d'utilisation commerciale, partage des conditions initiales à l'identique
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 8 Mo

Extrait

EEA Report No 4/2005
European environment outlook
ISSN 1725-9177EEA Report No 4/2005
European environment outlookCover design: EEA
Layout: EEA
Legal notice
The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European
Commission or other institutions of the European Communities. Neither the European Environment
Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that
may be made of the information contained in this report.
All rights reserved
No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or by any information storage retrieval system, without the
permission in writing from the copyright holder. For rights of translation or reproduction please
contact EEA project manager Ove Caspersen (address information below).
Information about the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the
Europa server (http://europa.eu.int).
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2005
ISBN 92-9167-769-8
ISSN 1725-9177
© EEA, Copenhagen 2005
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Enquiries: www.eea.eu.int/enquiriesContents
Contents
Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 4
Foreword .................................................................................................................... 5
Executive summary 6
1. Looking ahead — setting the scene ........................................................................8
1.1 Looking ahead: what for? ................................................................................... 8
1.2 The European environment outlook ..................................................................... 8
2. Europe's environment — current concerns ........................................................... 11
2.1 Outstanding issues .......................................................................................... 11
2.2 What drives changes in Europe's environment? ................................................... 14
2.3 The policy dimension ....................................................................................... 17
3. Societal drivers and pressures — a European baseline scenario ...........................20
3.1 The socio-economic context ............................................................................. 20
3.2 Demography .................................................................................................. 21
3.3 Macro-economy .............................................................................................. 22
3.4 Technological developments 22
3.5 Sectoral developments .................................................................................... 23
3.6 Consumption patterns ..................................................................................... 24
3.7 Energy and transport ...................................................................................... 25
3.8 Agriculture ..................................................................................................... 28
3.9 Waste and material flows ................................................................................. 31
4. Changes in Europe's environment ........................................................................ 36
4.1 Spotlight: GHG emissions and climate change .................................................... 36
4.2 Spotlight: air quality ....................................................................................... 45
4.3 Spotlight: water stress 50
4.4 ater quality ................................................................................... 58
5. Key signals and early warnings ........................................................................... 62
6. Uncertainties and information gaps ..................................................................... 67
Footnotes ................................................................................................................. 68
Annex 1 Country groupings/acronyms and abbreviations ........................................74
Annex 2 Concise description of the modelling tools used .........................................76
Annex 3 References ................................................................................................. 82
Annex 4 Glossary on environment outlooks ....................................................................87
3European environment outlookAcknowledgements
Acknowledgements
The authors of this report, Stéphane Isoard and Advisory Group for this European environment
Thomas Henrichs, thank Teresa Ribeiro and Jock outlook report:
Martin for their guidance and support. We also
very much appreciate the assistance and feed-back • Timothy Carter (Research Programme for Global
from our colleagues at the European Environment Change, Finnish Environment Institute);
Agency, particularly Ybele Hoogeveen, André Jol, • Gerold Bödeker (Food and Agriculture
Pawel Kazmierczyk, Lars Mortensen, Linda Neale, Organization of the UN (FAO));
Jan-Erik Petersen, Louise Rickard, David Stanners, • Keith Weatherhead (Cranfield University);
Niels Thyssen, Hans Vos and Tobias Wiesenthal. • Annegrete Bruvoll (Statistics Norway, Waste and
material flows);
We thankfully acknowledge the valuable • Kenneth Ruffing (Deputy Director, Environment
contributions to this report from the following Directorate, Organisation for Economic
persons: Co-operation and Development (OECD));
• Ferenc Toth (International Atomic Energy
• Mette Skovgaard, Stephan Moll and Rikke Agency (IAEA));
Carlsen from the European Topic Centre on • Antonio Soria (Institute for Prospective
Waste and Material Flows as well as Frits Møller Technological Studies (IPTS), European
Andersen and Helge Larsen from Risø National Commission — Joint Research Centre);
Laboratory; • Tomasz Zylicz (Economics Department, Warsaw
• Peter Kristensen, Concha Lallana, Benoît University and EEA Scientific Committee).
Fribourg-Blanc and Steve Nixon from the
European Topic Centre on Water; Additionally, we are grateful to Jelle Bruinsma at the
• Jelle Van Minnen, Willemijn Tuinstra, Nikos Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)
Kouvaritakis, Leonidas Mantzos, Zbigniew and Christian Pallière at the European Fertilizer
Klimont and Peter Taylor from the European Manufacturers Association (EFMA) for supporting
Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change; this report in data issues. Finally, we thank Peter
• Peter Witzke, Wofgang Britz and Andrea Zintl at Saunders for editing assistance.
EuroCARE GBmv;
• Martina Flörke and Joseph Alcamo at the Center Many experts have been involved in reviewing the
for Environmental Systems Research of the methodological approach and preliminary results of
University of Kassel; this outlook (for example, in dedicated workshops
• Antonio Soria, Peter Ruß, Lazslo Zsabo on waste and material flows and energy and climate
and Panayotis Christidis at the Institute for change at the European Environment Agency), and
Prospective Technological Studies of the it would be tedious to acknowledge each of them
European Commission — Joint Research Centre. individually here. Nevertheless, we would like to
thank them for their inputs and reflections, which in
Also, we are grateful for the critical support and many cases inspired us and changed the course of
constructive advice from the members of the events.
4 European environment outlookForeword
Foreword
Protecting our environment is a key element in will bring, we can, nevertheless, give a perspective
ensuring sustainable livelihoods for today’s and of how current trends may unfold — based on
future generations. our understanding of how environmental systems
function and how they are shaped by socio-
Indeed, the most recent Eurobarometer surveys economic and technological developments.
show that as Europeans we regard the protection of
our environment to be one of the six key priorities This European environment outlook report
for the European Union. Issues of particular concern addresses a range of environmental concerns and
are water and air pollution, man-made disasters, their common driving forces in an integrated way,
and climate change. In addition, new challenges and turns the spotlight on some of the more pressing
arising from diffuse sources of pollution, changing issues. The report highlights the prospects for
co