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Future of mobility roadmap. Ways to reduce emissions while keeping mobile.

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102 pages

Inderwildi (O), King (D). Oxford. http://temis.documentation.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/document.xsp?id=Temis-0066563

Ajouté le : 01 janvier 2009
Lecture(s) : 11
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Future of Mobility Roadmap
Ways to Reduce Emissions While Keeping MobilePUBLISHING INFORMATION
Editor Professor Sir David King FRS
Lead Author Dr Oliver Inderwildi
Authors Dr Christian Carey (Aviation)
Dr Georgina Santos (Economics)
Dr Xiaoyu Yan (Fuels)
Hannah Behrendt Aaron Holdway
Laura Maconi
Nicholas Owen
Tara Shirvani
Alex Teytelboym
Cover Design Sally Amberton
Copy Editing Daniel Baltzer
Cath Harris
The information disseminated within this report is a combination of research into the current state of the art
for transport. The information was collected from a number of sources including peer reviewed journal papers,
government white papers and interviews with various relevant figures as noted in the acknowledgments. These
interview are referenced where appropriate and are available on our website.
University of Oxford
Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment
Hayes House
75 George Street
Oxford OX1 2BQ
Future of Mobility RoadmapiEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
To meet the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission • Longer term developments require change to
reduction targets it is necessary to reduce the the current aircraft architecture from ‘tube and
emissions from the transport sector, the second wing’ to ‘flying wing’ systems, offering 32%
largest emitter. The dependence of the transport reduction in GHG through drag reduction
sector on fossil fuels, namely crude oil, has led to alone.
two main problems, the input problem of • Biofuels and operational improvements could
dwindling conventional crude oil reserves and the also reduce the GHG emissions from aviation.
output problem of increasing GHG emissions.
Sea or maritime transportation accounts for 3% of This results in a significant challenge of how to
global GHG emissions whilst transporting 70% of reduce GHG emissions without decreasing human
the world’s cargo by volume, leading to the lowest mobility.
emission per tonne kilometre of all modes
Land transportation is responsible for 11% of discussed here.
global GHG emissions. A number of changes to
• Through both technical and operational change, current methods can offer a reduction of GHG
reductions of up to 75% of GHG emission are emissions.
possible in the medium to long term.
• In the short-term, turbo charging and down-
Behavioural Change is needed to encorage low scaling in combination with weight reduction
carbon transport.of current vehicle technology.
• Either top-down or bottom-up polices are • In the medium-term, hybrid systems, those
required.using internal combustion engines and
regenerative electric systems such as the Toyota • Top-down methods include command and
Prius, offer significant savings and will help the control polices, such as regulation and
evolution to a purely electric drivetrain. incentive based polices, such as taxes and
charges.• Whilst purely electric vehicles are not zero
emission vehicles due to electricity and hydrogen • Top-down methods are not efficient from an
generation they will be important low carbon economical perspective but are when drastic
transport in the long term. changes in activity are required.
• Plug-in electric vehicles are restricted by battery • Bottom up methods or complementary
technology, fuel cell systems are limited by polices can be used in combination with top
power density of the unit and both systems are down methods.
challenged by limited rare material availability.
• Complementary polices fall into one of three
• First generation biofuels, those derived from broad categories: physical polices, soft polices
food stocks, have proved the viability of such and knowledge polices.
fuels, but remain a localised solution, as in
• Bottom-up methods are economically
Brazil.
efficient but do not always achieve their full
• Second generation biofuels synthesised from potential for change.
inedible cellulosic biomass have the potential to
From this we have drawn the following
be true low carbon fuels but are constrained by
recommendations:
land availability.
• Downscale car fleet for emission reduction in
• Algae based fuel show promise as they exclude
the short term.
land use and food security issues, but they
• Hybrid systems for medium term and purely require a mass production break through to be
electric systems for the long term solution.viable.
• As a drop in technology biofuels offer a • Both electric and diesel rail systems have low
solution to both the input and output problem. operating emissions but high embedded
Food security, land use and mass manufacture infrastructural costs and lack route flexibility.
issues must be overcome before widespread use.
Air transportation is responsible for 2-3% of GHG
• Minimise car use by shifting users to range emissions but the IPCC estimates that aviations total
suitable modes. impact is 2-4 times greater due various indirect
effects. • Infrastructural investment is crucial.
• Technical changes, such as improvements to • A combination of physical, soft and
propulsions systems and reduction to knowledge policies must be applied within an
aerodynamic drag could reduce emissions by up integrated framework to direct consumers to
to 50%, in the short term. low-carbon transport modes.
• However, rate of uptake of new technologies is
restricted by fleet lifetimes.
Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment iiFuture of Mobility RoadmapiiiTABLE OF CONTENTS
Publishing Information i
Executive Summary ii
Table of Contents iv

1. Introduction 1
1. The Input Problem
2. The Output Problem 3
3. The Challenge
4. The Benefits
5. References 4
2. Land 7
1. Road Vehicle Technology
2. Fuels 17
3. Rail 24
4. Economic Policy8
5. Conclusions 42
6. References2
3. Air 55
1. Aircraft Technology8
2. Aviation Fuels 62
3. Aviation Policy4
4. Conclusions5
5. References 66
4. Sea 71
1. Energy Efficiency1
2. Renewable Energy2
3. Low-Carbon Fuels 72
4. Emission Reduction3
5. Conclusions3
6. References 73
5. Commodities5
1. Fossil Fuels5
2. Precious Metals 75
3. Biomass6
4. Conclusions6
5. References 77
6. Behavioural Change & Modal Shifts9
1. Information and Education9
2. Advertising and Marketing 82
3. Family Life Changes3
4. Conclusions3
5. References 83
7. Summary5
8. Publications 91
9. Interviews3
10. Acknowledgements 5
Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment iv“If we shift the source of our energy and
change our transportation systems, there’s no
question that we can solve the climate change
crisis.“
Al Gore
Nobel Price laureate and former U.S. Vice President
at the inaugural The Times-Smith School World Forum on
Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford United Kingdom, July
2009.
Future of Mobility RoadmapiiiINTRODUCTION1
[4]Soon after the Industrial Revolution, the technological development . This enhanced
transportation of people and goods was mobility of goods and humans has, on the other
revolutionised by the invention of the internal hand, left us with a severe addiction to crude oil as
[1]combustion engine and the mass manufacture of more than 90% of transport fuels are derived from
[2]automobiles. Initially these automobiles were fuelled this commodity . Consequently, energy security
with plant-derived alcohols or oils that had a limited concerns deeply influence geopolitics, as crude oil
capacity to service large demands. The abundance of supply is inextricably tied to economic activity and
[5]petroleum, derived from crude oil, soon put these development . These concerns have been raised by
early fuels out of business. Since then, the potential oil shortages due to depleting oil reserves,
availability of cheap, readily available fuel combined which will eventually lead to increased oil prices.
with affordable, mass-produced vehicles has Recently, unease over the looming climate change
[2]radically changed the face of the earth . induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG)
[6, 7] [8, 9]emissions has intensified this discussion as Cars are meanwhile ubiquitous not only in the
the transport sector is the second largest emitter of developed world and are relied upon as a main
GHGs in the industrialised world (figure 1.1). The means of transport in many regions of the world.
crude oil addicted transportation culture has hence Currently there are more than one billion cars on
two main problems, declining fuel supply – the earth and forecasts suggest we will soon reach the
input problem – and increasing GHG emissions - two billion mark due to rapidly increasing car
the output problem. [2]ownership in the emerging markets .
Subsequent to the spread of the automobile,
improved aviation technology, relying on crude oil 1.1 The Input Problem
derived kerosene, further enhanced our mobility,
In the transport sector the fuel mix has been
effectively shrinking the world. Intercontinental
dominated by fuels derived from so-called light
travel became possible in hours as opposed to weeks
crude oil, which is accessible and cheap to produce.
and even the trade of perishable goods between
In recent years, concerns have grown over the
hemispheres started to flourish. Hence, aviation in [2, capacity for oil reserves to service rising demands
combination with telecommunications and the fall 10-14]. These reserves can roughly be classified as
of borders, played a critical role in the foundation of
conventional resources such as light crude and [3]today’s globalised society .
unconventional such as tar sands, heavy
The transport revolution has not only changed our oil and coal. The status of conventional oil reserves
way of life, but has also significantly contributed to is obscured by a lack of binding international
global economic development, human welfare, and standards that define conventional oil (reserve
Figure 1.1: Greenhouse-gas emission in the European Union by sector (2007)
Transport
Others
Residential
Agriculture
Electricity &
Industry & Heat
Construction
Source: European Environment Agency, http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/
Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment 1[11-13, 15]volume and grade) , by intentional at which sub-commercial resources can be
[11, misreporting to suit political or financial agendas reclassified as commercially exploitable reserves -
16, 17] [15, 18] [28] and by inherent technical uncertainty . the price-reserve relationship . Moreover, data
Most data in the public domain originates from from reporting agencies are inconsistent on the
reporting agencies such as the World Oil Journal or inclusion of Canadian tar sands in world reserve
[20]the Oil and Gas Journal, which is then reproduced estimates and usually report sub-commercial
[11]by information agencies (for example the reserves prematurely . If data presented by
International Energy Agency or the Energy information and reporting agencies is amended to
Information Administration). Data on individual reflect conventional P50 reserves, and account for
fields may also be purchased from scouting widely acknowledged false additions, figures become
companies, which is generally considered the most consistent with those quoted from independent
accurate by independent authors and academic institutions.
[12]institutions . Reporting and information agencies In the context of rising liquid fuels demand, it is
estimate that there is between 1,184 Gb (giga necessary to consider the effect that limited
[19, 20]barrels) and 1,342 Gb in world oil reserves. conventional oil resources may have on the liquid
Independent authors and academic institutions are fuels’ mix. Figure 1.2 gives a history of the flux of
more conservative and estimate conventional oil oil entering and exiting the conventional global oil
reserves from ultimately recoverable resource reserve inventory, based on backdated P50 data.
[11-13, 21-24]estimates at between 800 Gb and 900 Gb .
Data below the zero flux axis indicates periods of At current demand conventional oil reserves are
net withdrawal from reserves. This first occurred in forecast to run out by 2035. It should be noted,
1972 and has consistently occurred since 1980, however, that reserve-production ratios are not
indicating that conventional oil reserves have been sensitive to declining production rates, even if the
in decline since then. This is in sharp contrast to net amount produced over an extended period
figures published by reporting and information remains the same.
agencies that indicate oil reserves are continuously
Oil reserves are defined as the fraction of oil rising. Since records show that the peak of
resources that can be commercially and technically conventional oil discovery occurred in the early
[15]recovered at the current market price . Best [29]1960’s , it is unlikely that many significant and
practice assessment demands that estimated reserve accessible conventional oil fields remain to be
volumes should be stated together with a 50% found. The World Energy Outlook 2008 estimate
probability (P50) of achieving the specified volume that the world’s producing oil fields are declining at
[11, 25-27]to limit inherent assessment uncertainty . This such a rate that by 2020, only 50% of liquid fuel
uncertainty is increased by ambiguity over the point
Figure 1.2: Oil flux entering and exiting the global conventional oil reserve
120
Source: J. H. Laherrère, personal 105
communication (2009), see also C. J.
Campbell and J. H. Laherrère, Scientific 90
American, 1998, 278, 77-83
75
60
45
30
15
0
-15
-30
year
Future of Mobility Roadmap2
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
reserve flux [Gb]demand will be serviced by resources that are in world continues to warm’. The same report says that
production today. Shortages in supply of ‘…climate change [under business as usual
conventional oil would most likely be closed by conditions, will] reduce welfare by an amount
using unconventional oil. The major drawback of equivalent to a reduction in consumption per capita
[34]unconventional reserves is that they are more energy of between 5% and 20%’ . Moreover, studies by
consuming to extract and convert to usable liquid Barker have shown that the costs of mitigating and
fuels; consequently, fuels derived from these sources preventing the worst environmental effects of
have a higher carbon footprint, i.e. the same amount climate change will be insignificant compared to the
of fuel burnt would result in a larger amount of risks and potential costs of an unhindered and
[38]GHGs formed. Rising fuel demand and higher unmitigated climate change .
emissions per volume of fuel thus multiplies overall This potential threat has lead to international from the transport sector and we environmental treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol to
conclude that unconventional reserves could mitigate the the UNFCC, which aims to stabilise GHG
input problem, but they exacerbate the output problem. concentrations by reducing emissions. In order to
comply with the GHG emissions targets set out in
the Kyoto Protocol, countries have to reduce the 1.2 The Output Problem
emissions intensity of all sectors, especially sectors
Temperature levels on the earth’s surface have risen such as transport. However, reducing GHG
by between 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last 100 years, emissions from transport sector without decreasing
according to the Intergovernmental Panel on human mobility remains a non-trivial challenge.
[30]Climate Change (IPCC) . A further increase of
[30]between 1.1 and 6.4 °C is likely this century as the
[31] 1.3 The Challengerate of warming doubled . This accelerated climate
change is largely attributable to anthropogenic GHG Economic activity and consequently the societal
emissions – carbon dioxide (CO ), methane (CH ), 2 4 welfare are intrinsically linked to the mobility of
[7, 32-34]and nitrous oxides (NO ) . Since the Industrial x humans and the transportation of goods. Reducing
Revolution the combustion of fossil fuels has emissions from the transport sector by reducing
caused atmospheric CO concentrations to rise by 2 mobility will have dire consequences for the global
[35]36% . The atmosphere is heated through the economy. The aim of this study is to assess
absorption of infrared radiation by exactly these technologies and policies that have the potential to
[7, 36]GHGs . Consequently, higher atmospheric GHG reduce emissions from the transport sector while
concentrations accelerates the rate of warming. The enhancing human mobility. The problem will be
current level of atmospheric GHG concentrations is addressed from multiple perspectives aiming at a
equivalent to 430 parts per million (ppm) of CO , 2 transformation of the transportation sector by
so-called CO equivalents (CO ), compared to 2 2(eq) taking an integrated approach. Technological
[34]280 ppm before the industrial revolution . If innovations that have the potential to reduce GHG
GHG emissions stagnate at the current level, emissions in the transport sector are assessed. These
atmospheric GHG concentrations will still reach innovations encompass advancement in vehicle
550 ppm CO by mid-century, which is double 2(eq) design and drivetrain engineering and alternative
pre-industrial levels. If we continue with business as fuels. We focus on ways to use our current fuels
usual and emit GHGs at a higher rate, we could more efficiently in the short-term and the possibility
[34]reach 550 ppm of CO by 2035 . 2(eq) of replacing fossil fuels in the mid and long-term.
The consequences of anthropogenic climate change Special attention is paid to energy and food security
are wide ranging: Glacial retreat and the melting of as well as to scarce commodities. In parallel, this
Arctic ice means sea levels are likely to rise by study focuses on legislative interventions and policy
between 0.18 to 0.59 metres by the end of the levers that can support these technological
[30]century, putting at risk those living near coasts . innovations. The study identifies desirable
Rainfall patterns are also likely to change, extreme interventions, which meet the twin objectives of
weather events could become more frequent, water enhancing human mobility and minimising adverse
scarcity will increase in many regions and crop yields effects on the environment. A roadmap for the
will fall. The spread of diseases, such as malaria and renovation of our transport system can hence be a
dengue fever, could accelerate, potentially causing significant benefit for our society.
[37]turmoil in large parts of the developing world .
With regards to economic consequences, the Stern 1.4 The Benefit[34]Review has warned that the ‘…costs of extreme
The impact of greenhouse gases is not the only weather alone could reach 0.5% – 1% of world
problem caused by transport. Vehicles emit toxic Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per annum by the
local pollutants, such as nitrous and sulphur oxides, middle of the century, and will keep rising if the
Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment 3volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide and CT, USA, 2008.
soot, which cause asthma and other respiratory [10] C. J. Campbell, J. H. Laherrere, Scientific
diseases and produce acid rain that destroys forests. American 1998, 278, 77.
Although the emission levels of these pollutants in
[11] J. Laherrere, Oil peak or plateau?, developed countries have been reduced significantly
through technologies such as advanced combustion in St Andrews Economy Forum, ASPO France,
and exhaust treatment systems as well as low 2009
[39, 40]sulphur fuels , those in the developing countries
[12] F. Robelius, Doctoral thesis, Uppsala [41]remain high . Noise from busy streets as well as
Universitet (Uppsala), 2007.
landing and departing aircraft can affect humans and
[13] K. Alekkett, Peak oil and the evolving strategies of wildlife. In other words, improving our transport
oil importing and exporting countries: facing the systems would reap many environmental benefits,
hard truth about an import decline for the while green technologies could create jobs in
OECD countries, International Transport underdeveloped areas. Previous revolutions such as
Forum OECD/ITF, 2007.the transformation of our communication system in
the 1990’s have had a tremendous impact on [14] U. S. G. A. O. (US Government
economic growth. Last but not least, the relief from Accountability Office), Crude Oil:
the current crude oil addiction could ease Uncertainty about the future oil supply makes it
geopolitical tensions. important to develop a strategy for addressing a
peak decline in oil production, Report to This study is divided into three broad areas: land,
Congressional Requesters, Washington air and sea transport, weighted and ordered by their
DC, 2007.contribution to overall transport emissions. We
focus on technologies and policies and deliberately [15] Canadian Institute of Mining, Society of
neglect transport management, such as logistics, air Petroleum Evaluation Engineers,
traffic control, rail and road management, as these Metallurgy and Petroleum, Petroleum
more dynamic processes will be addressed in a Society, The Canadian Oil and Gas
subsequent Smith School of the Enterprise and the Evaluation Handbook, 1, 2 ed., 2007.
Environment study.
[16] J. Laherrere, Oil data ed. (Personal
Communication, N. Owen), 2009.
1.5 References [17] IEA (International Energy Agency), World
Energy Outlook 2008, OECD Publishing, [1] N. A. Otto, Gas-Motor Engine, U.S. Patent
2008.No. 194.047 1877.
[18] Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), [2] D. Sperling, D. Gordon, Two Billion Cars -
World P Council (WPC), Driving Towards Sustainability, Oxford
American Association of Petroleum University Press,, Oxford, United
Geologists (AAPG), Petroleum Resources Kingdom, 2009.
Management System, Society of Petroleum
[3] J. E. Stiglitz, Globalization and Its Discontents, Evaluation Engineers (SPEE), 2007.
W.W. Norton & Co., 2003.
[19] PennWell Corporation, Oil & Gas Journal
[4] J. Sachs, Common wealth: economics for a crowded 2008, 106.
planet, Penguin Press HC, 2008.
[20] EIA (Energy Information Administration),
[5] D. Moran, J. A. E. Russell, Energy Security and International petroleum (oil) consumption:
Global Politics: The Militarization of Resource Selected OECD countries, total OECD, and
Management Routledge, Oxford, UK, 2008. world total, years 1970-2007, 2009
[6] A. Gore, An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary [21] A. M. S. Bakhtiari, Oil & Gas Journal 2004,
Emergency of Global Warming and What We 102, 18.
Can Do About It Rodale Books, 2006.
[22] J. Baldwin, Ecological Economics 2006, 59, 394.
[7] G. Walker, D. King, The hot topic: how to tackle
[23] CERA, Peak oil theory - ‘World is running out global warming and still keep the lights on,
soon’ - Is faulty; could distort policy & energy Bloomsbury, 2009
debate, Press Release, 14 Nov 2006.
[8] A. Giddens, The Politics of Climate Change,
[24] C. Skrebowski, New capacity fails to boost 2006 Polity, 2009.
production - delays or depletion? Petroleum
[9] W. D. Nordhaus, A Question of Balance: Review, 2007, 61, 40-45
Weighing the Options on Global Warming
[25] J. Mitchell, Petroleum Reserves in Question, Policies, Yale University Press, New Haven,
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies,
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