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RICS Weekly Real Estate Comment - Template

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RICS GLOBAL REAL ESTATE WEEKLY March 6th 209 www.rics.org Middle Eastern market sees steep turnaround   “The latest  capital values and investment interest. Rents are falling • The latest global commercial property survey from RICS across more than 90% of the countries surveyed by RICS RICS global  shows that no real estate markets have been able to es-with the greatest downward pressure occurring in parts of cape the worsening economic climate with capital values commercial  Asia. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and India were all now plummeting across many emerging markets. ranked in the bottom five for rental performance as the property  collapse in world trade has smashed export earnings and • The Middle East has seen a sharp fall from grace in the business confidence. survey  most recent survey period, with the previously top ranked UAE echoing the fortunes of the oil price. Similar pessi-shows dete‐ Capital values fell for first time in the Middle East mism has also been expressed in Russia where additional rioration  worries over macro stability have weighed on investor % Net balnce sentiment. The UAE saw capital values plummet from a across all positive balance of 65 percent to a negative balance of 83 Change in commercial property capital values Capital values Balance of respondents,%percent. The outlook for future performance has in conse-sectors ”  rising2007 2nd Half 2008 1st Qtr 2008 2nd Qtr 2008 3rd ...
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RICS GLOBAL REAL ESTATE WEEKLY
March 6th2009
“ThelatestRICSglobalcommercialpropertysurveyshowsdeteriorationacrossallsectors“..withcapitalvalueslikelytofallfurtherinQ12009
 www.rics.org Middle Eastern market sees steep turnaround capital values and investment interest. Rents are falling The latest global commercial property survey from RICS across more than 90% of the countries surveyed by RICS shows that no real estate markets have been able to es-with the greatest downward pressure occurring in parts of cape the worsening economic climate with capital values Asia. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and India were all now plummeting across many emerging markets. ranked in the bottom five for rental performance as the collapse in world trade has smashed export earnings and The Middle East has seen a sharp fall from grace in the business confidence.most recent survey period, with the previously top ranked UAE echoing the fortunes of the oil price. Similar pessi-Capital values fell for first time in the Middle East mism has also been expressed in Russia where additional worries over macro stability have weighed on investor % Net balance sentiment. The UAE saw capital values plummet from a positive balance of 65 percent to a negative balance of 83 Change in commercial property capital valuesCapital values Balance of respondents,% percent. The outlook for future performance has in conse-rising 2007 2nd Half2008 1st Qtr2008 2nd Qtr2008 3rd Qtr2008 4th Qtr quence turned very gloomy.100 75 85 percent more Chartered Surveyors across the UAE ex-50 pect capital values to fall compared to a positive balance 25 of 45 percent in the previous quarter.In Dubai, 96 percent 0 more Chartered Surveyors expect capital values to fall 25 even further over the next three months, a drop from a 50 positive balance of 22 percent in the previous quarter. Other countries that previously displayed some measure 75 of resilience such as China, Turkey and Brazil have suc-100Capital values Australasia WesternEmerging EmergingNorth DevelopedAfrica &Latin AmEmerging Developedfalling cumbed to a sharp turnaround in lettings activity which Europe Asia EuropeAmerica AsiaMiddle EastMkts Mkts Source; RICS has dampened confidence towards the outlook for both*  FIGURES DO NOT SHOW PERCENTAGE CHANGE, ONLY THE BALANCE BETWEEN RESPONDENTS REPORTING A RISE OR FALL.
Chinese property to gain some support “ChinesestimulusNext week sees the release of several pieces of ChineseSome encouragement can be taken from recent business appearstoeconomic data which should provide an insight intosurvey’s of manufacturers which have recovered some whether the acceleration of fiscal stimulus packages areground, having fallen sharply during Q4 2008. Further-betakingtaking effect. Inflation and the closely watched trade data,more, the surge in money supply growth in the first 2 th th effectwill be due on Monday 10and Tuesday 11respectively. monthsof 2009, suggest some early success is already Retail sales and industrial production data are due onbeing achieved which could offer support to the struggling Thursday 12. This week’s address to the national con-th property sector. gress in the annual work report disappointed markets in “althoughthat it did not confirm any additional spending measures Chinese commercial property values turned in Q4 withrentson top of the already announced 4 trillion yuan package. The extension of lending and acceleration of real estate nowfalling% Net balance investment programmes could go someway to offset the inChinarapid turnaround in real estate conditions which have 40 Q3 2008Q4 2008 emerged since the autumn. capital20 valuesmayThis week’s release of the RICS Global Commercial Prop-0 erty Survey shows that the Chinese real estate market seesharperturned down sharply in the last quarter of 2008 with both 20 the lettings and investment market floundering. The ma-declines”40 jority of surveyors reported that capital values and rents had fallen in the most recent quarter which proved a 60 sharp turnaround on the previous survey period. 72 per-80 cent more Chartered Surveyors reported a fall than a rise in capital values compared to a positive 18 percent in the 100 Office Industrial Retail previous quarter with over 50% of surveyors also reporting Source; RICS rental declines.
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RICS GLOBAL REAL ESTATE WEEKLY
Swiss real estate suffers as economy contracts The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets on Thursday 12result, rent expectations have moved further into nega-th GDPagainst the backdrop of a worsening economic climate.tive territory, capital values are sliding and yields are The recently released Q4 GDP number came in below ex-thought likely to continue rising. The widespread belief droppedpectations posting a drop of 0.3% over the previous threethat the Swiss economy will contract by at least 2% this 0.3%inQ4”month period. So far much of the downturn has been con-year is consistent with the downbeat forward looking centrated in capital expenditures, including construction,indicators for the commercial property market. and exports but the risk is that the household sector could also start to feel the pain as the labour market picture begins to deteriorate. The January unemployment rate Weaker tenant demand will lower business rents climbed to a two year high of 3.3%. February data, an-th nounced on Monday 9, is likely to show a further jump in % Net balance the number of people without jobs. 80 “..commerci On the back of this, it would not be a surprise if the SNB takes the opportunity to lower the three month Libor tar-alrentsarenew range of between 0 and 0.75% with a specific 40 get to a target of 0.25%. However, the more important issue may expectedtoprove to be whether there is any further clarity on possible 0 continuefalunconventional measures for Swiss monetary policy. ling”The latest RICS Global Commercial Property Survey dem-40 T enant DemandRent Expectations onstrates that the real estate market in Switzerland is now suffering on the back of the softer economic climate and tighter liquidity conditions. Tenant demand has fallen80 H2 04H1 05H2 05H1 06H2 06H1 07H2 07Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 08 sharply while available space has increased markedly. As a Source:RICS
Firsttimebuyersaccountforrecordshareofnewmortgageloans“...Construc tionloanshavealsoseenasharppickup
Green shoots in Australian housing market The Australian central bank (RBA) somewhat surprisinglyloans; the latter jumped almost 10% over the previous chose to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.25% at themonth. While it is premature to believe that a meaningful March meeting. Glenn Stevens, the RBA Governor, drewimprovement in activity in the construction sector is im-attention to the significant cut in rates already sanctionedminent, it is likely that there will be some evidence of a as well as the substantial fiscal measures that have beenstabilisation in the negative trend in building approvals introduced to help underpin the economy. However, hebefore too much longer. did leave the door open to further easing by stating that the macro picture would be fully reviewed in April.
House prices have fallen for the last three quarters al-though it is noteworthy that the cumulative decline to A$, Bn date only amounts to around 4%. Interestingly, however, the housing finance data is showing encouraging signs 25 improving in October, November and December. The Janu-th ary figures are due to be released on March 11and will 23 be closely watched to see whether this positive trend is extended. Particularlyimpressive has been sector break-21 down of the approvals data. First-time buyers have been driving the turnaround with 20%+ increases in mortgage 19 demand for the last two months on the back of the lower cost of finance, reduced prices and increased grants. As a result, approvals for first-time buyers made up a record 17 high of 37% of new established loans in December. 15 Jan 2004 Significantly, the December data also showed a pick-up in investor loans as well as a strong rise in new construction
Housing finance commitments rise sharply
Jan 2005
Jan 2006
Jan 2007Jan 2008 Source; Economy.com
RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) is the leading All rights reserved, copyright 2008 RICS.No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in anyorganisation of its kind in the world for professionals in property, land, construction and related environmental issues. As part of form or by any means without prior permission of RICS. our role we help to set, maintain and regulate standards – as well as providing impartial advice to Governments and policymakers. RICS members operate in 146 countries, supported by an extensive network of regional offices located in every continent RICS makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this publication and cannot around the world. To ensure that our members are able to provide the quality of advice and level of integrity required by the market, RICS qualifications are only awarded to individuals who meet the accept any responsibility in law for any errors or omissions.The information in this publication contains general guidelines or estimates, most rigorous requirement for both education and experience and who are prepared to maintain high standards in the public and does not purport to be advice on any particular matter or project.No reader should act on the basis of information contained in thisinterest. With this in mind it’s perhaps not surprising that the letters RICS represent the mark of property professionalism publication without first taking professional advice appropriate to their particular circumstances.worldwide.