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Résultats détaillés sur le référendum écossais

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48 pages

Scottish Referendum Poll CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014 Table 1 Q.1 Did you vote in the referendum on whether Scotland should become an independent country or remain part of the United Kingdom?

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Scottish Referendum Poll
CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014

Table 1
Q.1 Did you vote in the referendum on whether Scotland should become an independent country or remain part of the United Kingdom?
Base: All respondents

Base
NET: Yes

Yes, by post

Yes, in person

No

Total
2047
2047
100%
447
22%
1600
78%
-
-

Lord Ashcroft

Gender

Male Female
997 1050
997 1050
100% 100%
212 235
21% 22%
785 815
79% 78%
-
-

16-17
14
14
100%
1
7%
13
93%
-
-

18-24
84
84
100%
11
13%
73
87%
-
-

25-34
263
263
100%
44
17%
219
83%
-
-

Age

35-44
384
384
100%
79
21%
305
79%
-
-

45-54
415
415
100%
81
20%
334
80%
-
-

55-64
399
399
100%
96
24%
303
76%
-
-

65+
488
488
100%
135
28%
353
72%
-
-

AB
798
798
100%
175
22%
623
78%
-
-

SEG

C1
516
516
100%
100
19%
416
81%
-
-

C2
267
267
100%
63
24%
204
76%
-
-

DE
431
431
100%
106
25%
325
75%
-
-

Vote

Yes
929
929
100%
170
18%
759
82%
-
-

No
1118
1118
100%
277
25%
841
75%
-
-

NET:
In the
last
month

580
580
100%
139
24%
441
76%
-
-

On
refer-
endum
day

105
105
100%
3
3%
102
97%
-
-

Page 1

Absolutes/col percents

When Decided How To Vote
Since
the
In the begin- Longer
last In the In the ning ago
few last last of the than a
days week month year year
100 92 283 221 203
100 92 283 221 203
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
15 25 96 55 37
15% 27% 34% 25% 18%
85 67 187 166 166
85% 73% 66% 75% 82%
- - - -
- - - -

Have
always
known

1043
1043
100%
216
21%
827
79%
-
-

Scottish Referendum Poll
CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014

Table 1
Q.1 Did you vote in the referendum on whether Scotland should become an independent country or remain part of the United Kingdom?
Base: All respondents

Base
NET: Yes

Yes, by post

Yes, in person

No

Total
2047
2047
100%
447
22%
1600
78%
-
-

Lord Ashcroft

Last Westminster Vote

Con
331
331
100%
95
29%
236
71%
-
-

Lab
625
625
100%
141
23%
484
77%
-
-

SNP LibDem
449 263
449 263
100% 100%
97 50
22% 19%
352 213
78% 81%
-
-

Con
264
264
100%
72
27%
192
73%
-
-

Last Holyrood Vote

Lab
546
546
100%
122
22%
424
78%
-
-

SNP LibDem
611 183
611 183
100% 100%
140 41
23% 22%
471 142
77% 78%
-
-

AB AB
Male Female
410 388
410 388
100% 100%
87 88
21% 23%
323 300
79% 77%
-
-

Gender Within SEG

C1 C1
Male Female
242 274
242 274
100% 100%
52 48
21% 18%
190 226
79% 82%
-
-

C2 C2
Male Female
140 127
140 127
100% 100%
28 35
20% 28%
112 92
80% 72%
-
-

DE DE
Male Female
189 242
189 242
100% 100%
45 61
24% 25%
144 181
76% 75%
-
-

CATI
1216
1216
100%
228
19%
988
81%
-
-

Methodology
CATI
Land- CATI
line Mobile

827
827
100%
160
19%
667
81%
-
-

389
389
100%
68
17%
321
83%
-
-

Online
831
831
100%
219
26%
612
74%
-
-

Page 2

Absolutes/col percents

Page 3
Scottish Referendum Poll
CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014
Absolutes/col percents
Table 2
Q.2 How did you vote in the referendum? Did you vote YES for Scotland to become an independent country, or NO for Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom?
Base: All respondents

Base
Yes

No

Total
2047
929
45%
1118
55%

Lord Ashcroft

Gender

Male Female
997 1050
468 461
47% 44%
529 589
53% 56%

16-17
14
10
71%
4
29%

18-24
84
40
48%
44
52%

25-34
263
155
59%
108
41%

Age

35-44
384
204
53%
180
47%

45-54
415
215
52%
200
48%

55-64
399
171
43%
228
57%

65+
488
134
27%
354
73%

AB
798
322
40%
476
60%

SEG

C1
516
253
49%
263
51%

C2
267
140
52%
127
48%

DE
431
192
45%
239
55%

Vote

Yes
929
929
100%
-
-

No
1118
-
-
1118
100%

NET:
In the
last
month
580
360
62%
220
38%

On
refer-
endum
day
105
71
68%
34
32%

When Decided How To Vote
Since
the
In the begin- Longer
last In the In the ning ago Have
few last last of the than a always
days week month year year known
100 92 283 221 203 1043
65 57 167 122 93 354
65% 62% 59% 55% 46% 34%
35 35 116 99 110 689
35% 38% 41% 45% 54% 66%

Page 4
Scottish Referendum Poll
CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014
Absolutes/col percents
Table 2
Q.2 How did you vote in the referendum? Did you vote YES for Scotland to become an independent country, or NO for Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom?
Base: All respondents

Base
Yes

No

Total
2047
929
45%
1118
55%

Lord Ashcroft

Last Westminster Vote

Con
331
15
5%
316
95%

Lab
625
230
37%
395
63%

SNP LibDem
449 263
385 102
86% 39%
64 161
14% 61%

Con
264
6
2%
258
98%

Last Holyrood Vote

Lab
546
170
31%
376
69%

SNP LibDem
611 183
488 43
80% 23%
123 140
20% 77%

AB
Male
410
178
43%
232
57%

AB
Female
388
144
37%
244
63%

Gender Within SEG

C1 C1
Male Female
242 274
115 138
48% 50%
127 136
52% 50%

C2 C2
Male Female
140 127
78 62
56% 49%
62 65
44% 51%

DE DE
Male Female
189 242
85 107
45% 44%
104 135
55% 56%

CATI
1216
565
46%
651
54%

Methodology
CATI
Land- CATI
line Mobile
827 389
353 212
43% 54%
474 177
57% 46%

Online
831
364
44%
467
56%

Lord Ashcroft

Gender

Absolutes/col percents

-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-

Longer ago than a year

-
-
1043
100%

Since the beginning of
the year

54
11%
299
61%

43
11%
228
57%

24
9%
107
41%

12
14%
35
42%

47
11%
199
48%

21
5%
174
45%

2
14%
1
7%

5
36%
2
14%

12
14%
11
13%

160
15%
119
11%

-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-

93
10%
354
38%

110
10%
689
62%

17
6%
132
49%

30
7%
221
51%

88
11%
420
53%

64
12%
252
49%

I have always known how
I would end up voting

203
10%
1043
51%

121
12%
519
52%

82
8%
524
50%

In the last month

52
20%
34
13%

On referendum day

In the last few days

283
14%
221
11%

123
12%
102
10%

35-44
384
145
38%
29
8%

23
6%
24
6%

69
18%
44
11%

56
13%
43
10%

38
10%
41
10%

51
10%
46
9%

100
100%
-
-

61
14%
40
9%

65
7%
57
6%

89
11%
102
13%

39
5%
32
4%

47
18%
29
11%

80
16%
48
9%

283
49%
-
-

-
-
-
-

167
18%
122
13%

116
10%
99
9%

283
100%
-
-

-
-
221
100%

-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-

2047
580
28%
105
5%

Yes No
929 1118
360 220
39% 20%
71 34
8% 3%

On
refer-
endum
day
105
105
100%
105
100%

NET:
In the
last
month
580
580
100%
105
18%

C2
267
89
33%
17
6%

DE
431
140
32%
30
7%

C1
516
152
29%
29
6%

19
5%
18
5%

24
6%
24
6%

12
2%
11
2%

AB
798
188
24%
28
4%

65+
488
89
18%
15
3%

55-64
399
87
22%
12
3%

45-54
415
126
30%
22
5%

16-17
14
9
64%
2
14%

18-24
84
26
31%
7
8%

25-34
263
98
37%
18
7%

Scottish Referendum Poll
CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014

Age

In the last week

59
6%
52
5%

1
7%
1
7%

3
4%
4
5%

18
7%
10
4%

Female
1050
325
31%
54
5%

-
-
-
-

203
100%
-
-

-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-

SEG

41
4%
40
4%

100
5%
92
4%

-
-
-
-

-
-
-
-

Page 5

-
-
92
100%

Vote

Male
997
255
26%
51
5%

Total

Longer
ago Have
than a always
year known
203 1043
-
-
-
-

When Decided How To Vote
Since
the
In the
beginlast In the In the ning
few last last of the
days week month year
100 92 283 221
100 92 283
100% 100% 100%
- - -
- - -

Base
NET: In the last month

23
4%
20
4%

27
6%
22
5%

8
3%
17
6%

Table 3
Q.3 When did you finally make up your mind how you would vote in the referendum?
Base: All respondents

-
-
-
-

35
3%
35
3%

-
-
-
-

100
17%
92
16%

347
29%
66
5%

113
29%
24
6%

234
28%
42
5%

Methodology
CATI
Land- CATI
line Mobile
827 389

Table 3
Q.3 When did you finally make up your mind how you would vote in the referendum?
Base: All respondents

28
11%
112
43%

51
11%
251
56%

8
2%
4
1%

100
5%
92
4%

Longer ago than a year

58
9%
298
48%

Since the beginning of
the year

283
14%
221
11%

18
5%
22
7%

86
16%
44
8%

80
13%
68
11%

22
12%
30
16%

26
10%
193
73%

52
10%
273
50%

70
11%
316
52%

18
10%
86
47%

I have always known how
I would end up voting

203
10%
1043
51%

40
12%
230
69%

C1
Male
242

AB
Female
388

In the last week

C1
Female
274

49
27%
9
5%

157
26%
20
3%

177
32%
32
6%

87
10%
420
51%

41
11%
184
47%

75
9%
439
53%

101
25%
20
5%

C2
Female
127

DE
Male
189

49
12%
209
51%

39
10%
211
54%

36
26%
9
6%

580
28%
105
5%

39
12%
9
3%

In the last few days

DE
Female
242

C2
Male
140

19
5%
15
4%

42
11%
51
13%

47
11%
51
12%

10
4%
9
4%

13
5%
11
4%

20
5%
17
4%

10
4%
124
51%

20
11%
97
51%

116
10%
623
51%

25
9%
124
45%

39
16%
128
53%

7
6%
55
43%

10
7%
77
55%

38
5%
46
6%

57
5%
60
5%

16
7%
12
5%

11
6%
10
5%

CATI
1216

19
5%
14
4%

30
12%
16
7%

50
18%
32
12%

Online
831

43
5%
32
4%

119
14%
91
11%

56
14%
51
13%

108
13%
79
10%

164
13%
130
11%

38
16%
23
10%

23
12%
17
9%

27
21%
12
9%

20
14%
17
12%

1
1%
6
4%

7
6%
11
9%

208
33%
39
6%

103
23%
10
2%

Lab
625

5
2%
5
2%

12
5%
18
7%

35
13%
43
16%

96
15%
61
10%

54
12%
44
10%

233
28%
39
5%

Absolutes/col percents

Scottish Referendum Poll
CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014

Base

LibDem
263

Con
264

SNP
449

16
6%
16
6%

17
4%
22
5%

41
7%
32
5%

85
35%
19
8%

55
29%
11
6%

53
42%
8
6%

Page 6

Total
2047

Con
331

Gender Within SEG

In the last month

AB
Male
410

SNP
611

Lab
546

LibDem
183

59
24%
10
4%

87
22%
8
2%

93
34%
19
7%

9
5%
9
5%

22
4%
35
6%

35
6%
24
4%

Lord Ashcroft

On referendum day

NET: In the last month

80
30%
13
5%

27
10%
5
2%

Last Westminster Vote

Last Holyrood Vote

Table 4
Q.3b Did you move from being a “Don't know” or did you move from intending to vote the opposite to the way you actually ended up voting?
Base: All respondents who made their mind up how to vote in the last month

Scottish Referendum Poll
CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014

Age

55-64
87
50
57%
21
24%

45-54
126
67
53%
32
25%

65+
89
44
49%
17
19%

Moved from the opposite
position to how I
finally voted i.e. from
No to Yes, or from Yes
to No
Neither

AB
188
114
61%
48
26%

52
16%

-
-

1
4%

11
11%

101
17%

49
19%

11
11%

63
22%

10
11%

When Decided How To Vote
Since
the
In the
beginlast In the In the ning
few last last of the
days week month year
100 92 283
58 61 160
58% 66% 57%
31 21 60
31% 23% 21%

Longer
ago
than a
year
-
-
-
-
-

-
-

-
-

-
-

Have
always
known
-
-
-
-
-

30
21%

18
20%

25
16%

26
14%

28
31%

16
18%

27
21%

18
12%

580
339
58%
140
24%

105
60
57%
28
27%

17
16%

101
17%

62
28%

39
11%

Male Female
255 325
140 199
55% 61%
66 74
26% 23%

Total
580
339
58%
140
24%

35-44
145
89
61%
38
26%

16-17
9
9
100%
-
-

25-34
98
61
62%
26
27%

Base
Moved from Don't Know
to how I finally voted

18-24
26
19
73%
6
23%

Gender

Page 7

NET:
In the
last
month

On
refer-
endum
day

No
220
129
59%
29
13%

Yes
360
210
58%
111
31%

C2
89
51
57%
20
22%

DE
140
78
56%
32
23%

C1
152
89
59%
38
25%

Absolutes/col percents

Lord Ashcroft

Vote

SEG

Scottish Referendum Poll
CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014

Table 4
Q.3b Did you move from being a “Don't know” or did you move from intending to vote the opposite to the way you actually ended up voting?
Base: All respondents who made their mind up how to vote in the last month

Base
Moved from Don't Know
to how I finally voted

Moved from the opposite
position to how I
finally voted i.e. from
No to Yes, or from Yes
to No
Neither

Lord Ashcroft

Total
580
339
58%
140
24%

101
17%

Last Westminster Vote

Con
39
16
41%
7
18%

16
41%

Lab
208
118
57%
57
27%

33
16%

SNP LibDem
103 80
61 53
59% 66%
25 18
24% 23%

17
17%

9
11%

Con
27
10
37%
5
19%

12
44%

Last Holyrood Vote

Lab
177
98
55%
50
28%

29
16%

SNP LibDem
157 49
95 33
61% 67%
38 10
24% 20%

24
15%

6
12%

AB AB
Male Female
101 87
58 56
57% 64%
24 24
24% 28%

19
19%

7
8%

Gender Within SEG

C1 C1
Male Female
59 93
32 57
54% 61%
15 23
25% 25%

12
20%

13
14%

C2 C2
Male Female
36 53
17 34
47% 64%
11 9
31% 17%

8
22%

10
19%

DE DE
Male Female
55 85
30 48
55% 56%
15 17
27% 20%

10
18%

20
24%

CATI
347
201
58%
93
27%

53
15%

Methodology
CATI
Land- CATI
line Mobile Online
234 113 233
130 71 138
56% 63% 59%
63 30 47
27% 27% 20%

41
18%

12
11%

48
21%

Page 8

Absolutes/col percents

25-34

997
385
39%
378
38%

2047
911
45%
728
36%

Total

Male

26
31%
31
37%

4
29%
6
43%

356
34%
321
31%

79
30%
115
44%

1050
526
50%
350
33%

14
10
71%
4
29%

84
40
48%
32
38%

263
126
48%
114
43%

Scottish Referendum Poll
CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014

25
10%
39
15%

Age

1
7%
1
7%

6
7%
13
15%

247
12%
200
10%

126
13%
85
9%

Base
The NHS

Oil

Prices

Benefits

52
12%
66
15%

30
36%
16
19%

64
12%
51
10%

43
16%
26
10%

59
22%
35
13%

6
43%
-
-

99
26%
50
13%

95
23%
53
13%

58
12%
66
14%

56
14%
61
15%

18-24

Female

384
185
48%
163
42%

35-44

16-17

234
21%
166
15%

306
38%
309
39%

Have
always
known

133
31%
98
23%

68
25%
51
19%

63
7%
305
33%

24
24%
13
13%

121
21%
75
13%

21
20%
10
10%

17
17%
29
29%

169
18%
115
12%

91
10%
144
16%

116
20%
101
17%

417
37%
329
29%

19
19%
20
20%

27
26%
10
10%

113
22%
108
21%

186
23%
211
26%

96
19%
69
13%

168
21%
131
16%

70
16%
53
12%

60
22%
24
9%

12
12%
11
11%

31
3%
38
4%

147
13%
77
7%

54
9%
22
4%

8
8%
9
9%

10
10%
4
4%

7
8%
4
4%

29
10%
5
2%

14
15%
20
22%

56
20%
51
18%

49
22%
41
19%

24
11%
30
14%

39
14%
34
12%

14
15%
16
17%

84
11%
55
7%

31
12%
12
5%

8
10%
4
5%

2
14%
-
-

98
9%
63
6%

121
12%
115
11%

5
36%
1
7%

15
18%
6
7%

40
15%
27
10%

80
8%
52
5%

178
9%
115
6%

None of the above

31
12%
9
3%

32
7%
37
9%

70
9%
35
4%

44
9%
29
6%

34
9%
19
5%

46
9%
30
6%

31
8%
20
5%

26
6%
30
7%

51
13%
56
15%

44
11%
40
10%

52
11%
32
7%

40
10%
38
10%

182
20%
125
13%

135
34%
106
27%

75
18%
101
24%

218
45%
143
29%

48
13%
70
18%

119
31%
127
33%

399
156
39%
140
35%

488
204
42%
114
23%

415
190
46%
161
39%

100
50
50%
47
47%

Longer
ago
than a
year

Absolutes/col percents

232
23%
242
24%

508
25%
473
23%

10
5%
14
7%

94
9%
73
7%

Lord Ashcroft

Disaffection with
Westminster politics

202
19%
126
12%

276
26%
231
22%

20
9%
6
3%

403
20%
281
14%

201
20%
155
16%

301
29%
275
26%

119
11%
75
7%

25
12%
24
12%

76
37%
72
35%

42
21%
56
28%

Gender

EU membership

Pensions

638
57%
363
32%

154
27%
175
30%

20
19%
34
32%

404
39%
343
33%

701
34%
668
33%

Tax & public spending

345
35%
347
35%

The Pound

Defence & security

Jobs

45-54

798
315
39%
280
35%

65+

55-64

AB

193
40%
120
25%

154
39%
132
33%

126
30%
137
33%

65
6%
75
7%

14
13%
10
10%

79
14%
71
12%

On
refer-
endum
day

NET:
In the
last
month

Vote

105
49
47%
43
41%

580
284
49%
265
46%

No

929 1118
504 407
54% 36%
684 44
74% 4%

516
238
46%
195
38%

C2

431
216
50%
126
29%

267
126
47%
115
43%

C1

DE

When Decided How To Vote
Since
the
In the
beginlast In the In the ning
few last last of the
days week month year

Yes

Page 9

201
19%
141
14%

20
22%
11
12%

36
18%
34
17%

56
20%
41
14%

45
20%
31
14%

203 1043
89 438
44% 42%
69 295
34% 28%

221
100
45%
99
45%

92
47
51%
42
46%

283
138
49%
133
47%

67
30%
78
35%

93
33%
90
32%

24
26%
22
24%

SEG

Table 5
Q.4 From the list below what were the two or three most important issues in deciding how you ultimately voted?
Base: All respondents

169
33%
181
35%

135
31%
98
23%

81
30%
75
28%

45
19%
34
14%

Base

The NHS

Last Westminster Vote

36
15%
21
9%

34
18%
32
17%

270
22%
163
13%

264
48%
137
25%

77
29%
14
5%

101
38%
92
35%

26
20%
8
6%

51
19%
35
13%

34
24%
16
11%

171
21%
111
13%

99
25%
52
13%

133
16%
118
14%

Methodology
CATI
Land- CATI
line Mobile
827 389

200
51%
159
41%

291
35%
310
37%

58
18%
38
11%

131
21%
78
12%

Lord Ashcroft

Disaffection with
Westminster politics

Lab
625

SNP
449

Con
331

LibDem
263

Con
264

239
44%
177
32%

Lab
546

59
22%
57
22%

106
40%
99
38%

173
32%
123
23%

106
40%
81
31%

73
16%
84
19%

49
11%
150
33%

86
47%
54
30%

152
37%
173
42%

145
55%
98
37%

88
14%
200
33%

49
20%
57
24%

64
23%
51
19%

154
40%
136
35%

87
22%
101
26%

49
26%
47
25%

84
35%
51
21%

33
24%
25
18%

35
28%
26
20%

251
30%
203
25%

318
26%
273
22%

190
23%
200
24%

67
17%
70
18%

53
14%
53
14%
18
5%
25
6%

89
11%
68
8%
36
4%
34
4%

296
36%
230
28%

300
36%
317
38%

105
27%
121
31%

420
51%
259
31%

Online
831

142
12%
121
10%
54
4%
59
5%

26
11%
36
15%
22
9%
21
9%

26
14%
30
16%
10
5%
16
8%

25
18%
12
9%
16
11%
5
4%

18
14%
14
11%
15
12%
4
3%

LibDem
183

AB
Male
410

Table 5
Q.4 From the list below what were the two or three most important issues in deciding how you ultimately voted?
Base: All respondents

C2
Female
127

82
30%
90
33%

87
36%
91
38%

DE
Male
189

C2
Male
140

SNP
611

AB
Female
388

43
31%
35
25%

C1
Female
274

C1
Male
242

70
38%
43
23%

176
45%
123
32%

139
34%
157
38%

Last Holyrood Vote

Gender Within SEG

76
40%
61
32%

140
58%
65
27%

620
51%
418
34%

313
51%
382
63%

64
50%
52
41%

104
43%
91
38%

62
44%
63
45%

134
49%
104
38%

Total
2047

84
20%
71
17%

32
17%
38
21%

110
18%
77
13%

49
19%
30
11%

83
18%
54
12%

49
19%
53
20%

114
21%
65
12%

911
45%
728
36%

100
30%
19
6%

Scottish Referendum Poll
CATI & ONLINE Fieldwork : 18th-19th September 2014

320
51%
183
29%

102
17%
113
18%

48
26%
49
27%

225
50%
298
66%

75
31%
54
22%

60
32%
44
23%

99
24%
110
27%

401
33%
351
29%

38
30%
40
31%

38
14%
29
11%
26
9%
17
6%

26
11%
22
9%
18
7%
12
5%

37
10%
34
9%
35
9%
20
5%

84
22%
60
15%

105
13%
79
10%
124
15%
56
7%

Oil

247
12%
200
10%
178
9%
115
6%

187
30%
138
22%

135
41%
128
39%

508
25%
473
23%

403
20%
281
14%

20
6%
19
6%
49
15%
23
7%

53
8%
68
11%
46
7%
26
4%

21
8%
19
7%
27
10%
17
6%

107
24%
45
10%
15
3%
20
4%

15
6%
19
7%
37
14%
18
7%

48
9%
65
12%
51
9%
22
4%

12
7%
9
5%
16
9%
13
7%

120
20%
57
9%
29
5%
29
5%

47
11%
21
5%
35
9%
15
4%

Defence & security

Prices

Page 10

None of the above

Benefits

Absolutes/col percents

Jobs

DE
Female CATI
242 1216

EU membership

249
40%
193
31%

Pensions

179
54%
119
36%

701
34%
668
33%

The Pound

Tax & public spending

Un pour Un
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