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Analysis of changes in eco-efficiency of production and consumption in Lithuania during the 1990 – 2006 year period ; Ekologinio gamybos ir vartojimo veiksmingumo pokyčių Lietuvoje 1990 – 2006 m. analizė

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28 pages
VYTAUTASAGNUSNIVERSITYLITHUANIANORESTESEARCHNSTITUTERenataagiliūt÷ANALYSISOFCHANGESINECOEFFICIENCYOFPRODUCTIONANDCONSUMPTIONINLITHUANIADURINGTHE1990–2006YEARPERIODSummaryfoctoralDissertationBiomedicalSciences,cologyndnvironmentalciences103)Kaunas,008TherightofdoctoralstudieswasgrantedtoVytautasMagnusUniversi tyjointlywithLithuanianForestResearchinstituteonJuly15,2003,bythedecisionNo.926 oftheGovernmentfhe epublicfithuania.DissertationwasperformedtytautasagnusUniversityn004008.Scientificupervisor:Prof.habil.dr. RomualdasJuknys(VytautasagnusUniversity,BiomedicalSciences,Ecologynd5nvironmental4ciences3) Councilfdefencefthe.octoraldissertation:Chairman:Prof.habil.dr. VidaStravinskien÷ (VytautasMagnusUniversity,BiomedicalSciences,Ecologynd5nvironmental4ciences3)Members:Prof.habil.r. RemigijusČiegis(VilniusUniversity,Social4ciences,ManagementandAdministration3).Prof.habil.dr. PavelasDuchovskis(LithuanianUniversityofHorticulture,BiomedicalSciences,cologyndnvironmental4ciences3)Prof.habil.dr. RemigijusOzolinčius(LithuanianForestResearchInstitute,BiomedicalSciences,cologyndnvironmental4ciences3)Assoc.prof.dr. Jon÷Venclovien÷(VytautasMagnusUniversity,BiomedicalSciences,Ecologynd5nvironmental4ciences3)Opponents:Prof. habil.
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VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY LITHUANIAN FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE             Renata Dagiliūt÷    ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN ECOEFFICIENCY OF PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN LITHUANIA DURING THE 1990 – 2006 YEAR PERIOD       Summary of Doctoral Dissertation Biomedical Sciences, Ecology and Environmental Sciences (03 B)                  Kaunas, 2008
 
 
The right of doctoral studies was granted to Vytautas Magnus University jointly with Lithuanian Forest Research institute on July 15, 2003, by the decision No. 926 of the Government of the Republic of Lithuania.  Dissertation was performed at Vytautas Magnus University in 2004 – 2008.  Scientific Supervisor:  Prof. habil. dr.Romualdas Juknys(Vytautas Magnus University, Biomedical Sciences, Ecology and Environmental Sciences 03 B)    Council of defence of the doctoral dissertation:  Chairman:  Prof. habil. dr.Vida Stravinskien÷(Vytautas Magnus University, Biomedical Sciences, Ecology and Environmental Sciences 03 B)  Members:  Prof. habil. dr.Remigijus Čiegis(Vilnius University, Social Sciences, Management and Administration 03 S). Prof. habil. dr.Pavelas Duchovskis(Lithuanian University of Horticulture, Biomedical Sciences, Ecology and Environmental Sciences 03 B) Prof. habil. dr.Remigijus Ozolinčius(Lithuanian Forest Research Institute, Biomedical Sciences, Ecology and Environmental Sciences 03 B) Assoc. prof. dr.Jon÷ Venclovien÷(Vytautas Magnus University, Biomedical Sciences, Ecology and Environmental Sciences 03 B)  Opponents:  Prof. habil. dr. Jonas Čepinskis(Vytautas Magnus University, Social Sciences, Management and Administration 03 S) Assoc. prof. dr. Vitas Marozas(Lithuanian University of Agriculture, Biomedical Sciences, Ecology and Environmental Sciences 03 B)    The official defence of the dissertation will be held at 2 p.m. on December 23, 2008 at a public session in the 605 hall at Vileikos st. 8. Address: Vileikos st. 8, LT – 44404, Kaunas, Lithuania Phone/fax: +370 37 327904  The summary of the doctoral dissertation was sent out on November 2 , 2008.  The dissertation is available at M. Mažvydas national Library of Lithuania and the libraries of Vytautas Magnus University and Lithuanian Forest Research Institute.
VYTAUTO DIDŽIOJO UNIVERSITETAS LIETUVOS MIŠKŲ INSTITUTAS         Renata Dagiliūt÷         EKOLOGINIO GAMYBOS IR VARTOJIMO VEIKSMINGUMO POKYČIŲ LIETUVOJE 1990 – 2006 M. ANALIZö           Daktaro disertacijos santrauka Biomedicinos mokslai, Ekologija ir aplinkotyra (03 B)              Kaunas, 2008
 
 
 
Doktorantūros ir daktaro mokslų laipsnių teikimo teis÷ suteikta Vytauto Didžiojo universitetui kartu su Lietuvos miškų institutu 2003 m. liepos 15 d. Lietuvos Respublikos Vyriausyb÷s nutarimu Nr. 926.  Disertacija rengta 2004 – 2008 m. Vytauto Didžiojo universitete.  Mokslinis vadovas:  Prof. habil. dr. Romualdas Juknys (Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas, Biomedicinos mokslai, Ekologija ir aplinkotyra 03 B)   Disertacijos gynimo taryba:  Pirminink÷ Prof. habil. dr. Vida Stravinskien÷(Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas, Biomedicinos mokslai, Ekologija ir aplinkotyra 03 B)  Nariai:  Prof. habil. dr.Remigijus Čiegis(Vilniaus universitetas, Socialiniai mokslai, Vadyba ir administravimas, 03 S). Prof. habil. dr.Pavelas Duchovskis(Lietuvos sodininkyst÷s ir daržininkyst÷s institutas, Biomedicinos mokslai, Ekologija ir aplinkotyra, 03 B) Prof. habil. dr. Ozolinčius Remigijus(Lietuvos miškų institutas, Biomedicinos mokslai, Ekologija ir aplinkotyra 03 B) Doc. dr.Jon÷ Venclovien÷(Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas, Biomedicinos mokslai, Ekologija ir aplinkotyra, 03 B)  Oponentai:  Prof. habil.dr. Jonas Čepinskis(Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas, Socialiniai mokslai, Vadyba ir administravimas, 03 S) Doc.dr. Marozas Vitas(Lietuvos žem÷s ūkio universitetas, Biomedicinos mokslai, Ekologija ir aplinkotyra, 03 B).   Disertacija bus ginama viešame Ekologijos ir aplinkotyros mokslo krypties tarybos pos÷dyje 2008 m. gruodžio 23 d. 14. val. Vytauto Didžiojo universiteto II rūmuose V.Čepinskio tiksliųjų mokslų skaitykloje (605a.). Adresas: Vileikos 8, LT44404, Kaunas Tel./fax.: + 370 37 327904  Disertacijos santrauka išsiuntin÷ta 2008 m. lapkričio 2 d.  Su disertacija galima susipažinti Lietuvos Nacionalin÷je M. Mažvydo bibliotekoje ir Vytauto Didžiojo universiteto bei Lietuvos miškų instituto bibliotekose.    
INTRODUCTION  Sustainable development has gained an international attention in the last decades. Decoupling economy growth from environmental pressure was indicated as one oh the main conditions for sustainability (Cole, 1999, Sun, 2000, Matthews et al, 2000, Jamek, 2003, EC, 2006). Yet in 1987, United Nation Commission on Environment and Development reported that resources have to be used more efficiently and the concept of ecoefficiency should be integrated in other policies (Our common future, 1987). Ecoefficiency improvements are also foreseen as one of the main priorities in EU Sustainable development strategy (EC, 2001, 2006). The decade after Rio declaration pointed out the importance of consumption patterns for reaching sustainability goals and Johannesburg summit has drawn attention to the sustainable production and consumption issues. As research show unsustainable production and consumption patterns cause the main environmental pressures (EEA, 2007) in the whole life cycle (Bringezu, 2003) and challenge solutions of the problems like poverty reduction and meeting the basic needs without increase in environmental burden. High production dependency on natural resources and high consumption levels, characteristic to industrialized countries and becoming common in developing countries, threatens the sustainable development. Therefore, ecoefficiency improvement is necessary, though not sufficient, condition for sustainable production. Ecoefficiency gains in production are often offset by increasing consumption (Hass, Shiper, 1998, Biswanger, 2001). For this reason the social factors, culture, lifestyle, and sustainable thinking are very important (Lintott, 1998, Halme et al., 2004, EEA, 2005) for sustainable production and consumption goals. Sustainable production and consumption, as well as decoupling environmental impact from economy growth are one of the main goals for countries with transition economies. Lithuania, as other Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries (mostly New EU Members) experienced changes in political, social and economic life in relative short time after the collapse of Soviet Union. As a consequence of an essentially reduced production, use of natural resources and environmental pollution decreased respectively. After transitional decline, the economy has started to recover. Still the current per capital consumption is relatively low, present pronounced growth of transition countries and demand for better quality of life could lead to the increase in material and energy consumption (Moll et al., 2005, EEA, 2005). Such increase would have two implications: firstly, increasing pressure on the environment in enlarged EU and could outweigh achievements in Western Europe (Schütz, Welfens, 2000), and secondly, such increase could impede to reach foreseen objectives to decouple resource consumption from economic growth (EC, 2001, 2005). Because of those dynamics, there are great possibilities for leapfrogging, applying best available technologies and experience and to creating an incentive to gain from efficiency and to reduce environmental impact.  Aim of the research  The aim of the research was to analyze the main trends of production and consumption and their environmental impact in Lithuania and to assess ecoefficiency of production and consumption and its main determinants.  
 
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Main tasks of the research:   To analyze the main trends of production, energy and water consumption, and environmental pollution during 1990 – 2006 year period.  To evaluate ecoefficiency of production and services and to analyze main ecoefficiency changes in Lithuania during 1990 – 2006 year period.  To assess the main factors influencing ecoefficiency of resource consumption and environmental pollution.  in household consumption patterns in 1990 –To analyze the main trends 2006 and to determined main factors for consumption changes.  and habits of consumers towards ecoefficiency ofTo survey attitudes consumption and to assess their main determinants.  Scientific novelty and relevance  In this study, the ecoefficiency of production and consumption in Lithuania is analyzed jointly for the first time. For the better interpretation of ongoing ecoefficiency changes, the concept of double decoupling is presented. It is estimated that during transition period significant reduction in resource, and especially energy, intensity is achieved. Recently final energy intensity in Lithuania is nearly equal to that of EU Old Member states. Thought pollution intensity is still two times higher to compare to EU old member states on average. Structural economy changes, price increase and differences in resource and pollution intensities in separate economy sectors were the main drivers for the resource intensity and pollution intensity reduction respectively in Lithuania. Results show, that consumers’ attitudes and behaviour towards environment were driven by socioeconomical factors like incomes, age and number of children in the household. To continue with ecoefficiency improvements and decoupling environmental pressure from economy growth not only ecoefficiency of production, but of consumption is of importance.  DATA AND METHODS  Data from the Department of Statistics to the Government of the Republic of Lithuania (Statistics Lithuania), Ministry of Environment and Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat) is used in this study to reveal the main trends of production, consumption, environmental impact and derived ecoefficiency indicators as well as possible driving forces for these changes. The research covers the 1990 – 2006 year period, which is considered as transition period. It is assumed that transition period will last until the main indicators (GDP, income inequality, labour productivity and so on) of Lithuania reach the European Union old members (EU15) level on average. To reveal ongoing changes two completely different periods are distinguished: decline period (1990 – 1994) and economy growth period (1995  2006). Gross domestic product (GDP) is presented at constant 2000year prices to avoid the impact of inflation. To reveal resource consumption the indicators of final energy (toe) and water (excluding water for energy sector) (mill.m3) consumption is used in the study. For environmental impact, the acidifying compounds (SOx, NOx) are
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chosen for the representation of air pollution and for the representation of water pollution, the main drivers for eutrophication (N, P) were selected. Due to the data insufficiency and inaccuracy, household environmental impact is mostly based on consumption indicators (final energy, thermal energy, electricity, water, household durables).  Ecoefficiency Analysis ecoefficiency of production and consumption is based on the eco intensity indicators. The intensity of resource consumption and pollution intensity was calculated. Resource intensity in this study is considered to be energy or water amount per unit of gross domestic product. Pollution intensity is treated as emission of polluting compounds per unit of energy or water consumed. As ecoefficiency indicators do not indicated whether environmental impact is delinking from economy growth, the course of decoupling is evaluated in this study. Double decoupling, i.e. decoupling of the use of natural resources from economy growth, which is named as primary decoupling, and decoupling of environmental pollution from the use of natural resources  secondary decoupling are under consideration for a deeper analysis of the development trends. Taking into account that the measures and decisions needed to achieve primary and secondary decoupling are rather different, such treatment of intensity indicators and decoupling is more useful for the analysis of the revealed development trends. Analysis of possible drivers for changes in ecoefficiency trends after transitional decline during economy growth period in Lithuania included structural changes of economy, indicators of ecointensity in separate economy sectors, prices for resource consumption and services related to them, and structure of energy and fuel balance.  Consumers’ survey To reveal the main trends in consumers’ attitudes and behaviour towards environment a consumer survey was conducted. As the results of quota sample survey often follow the results of representative surveys, the quota sample survey was conducted in 2006 (MayAugust). 343 respondents52.6 % female and 47.4 % malefilled in the questionnaire prepared by the authors. The sex structure and the age structure (with some deviations) of the respondents reveal that of Lithuania. Though results of the survey do not represent the whole population of Lithuania, some conclusions on prevailing trends of consumers’ attitudes and behaviour could be done. As questionnaire covers wide range of consumption issues, the overall scale of consumers’ attitudes and behaviour towards environment was constructed (Crombach α=0,68). The lower the score the more positive are the attitudes and behaviour of consumers towards environment. 22 questions included in the scale related to the issues of environmental responsibility and importance, resource saving, consumption changes, willingness to pay, waste separations, use of the car for the different purposes and willingness to know more about environmental issues.  Statistical data analysis Correlation (Spearman) analysis is used to determine the main drivers for eco efficiency changes.
 
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The analysis of possible socioeconomic drivers of overall consumption patterns and determined factors is based on the interrelation analysis (Contingency and Kendall’s τb correlation coefficients). Correlations were considered to be statistically significant at p <0,05.    and  was used for data software analysis and presentation.  MAIN RESULTS  Economic changes, resource consumption and environmental pollution After the collapse of Soviet Union, shift to the market economy, privatization and structural changes caused a transitional decline (Fig. 1). The economy of Lithuania was directly integrated into the former Soviet Union and was most dependent on its resources. Cardinal change of economic relations from one side East orientation to balanced West – East cooperation resulted in deep economic decline by more than 44 %. The deepest decline (65 %) was characteristic for industry sector, which was mostly integrated in former Soviet Union economy (very specialized, military industry). Active changes in transport and trade and services sectors resulted in relatively small transitional decline in these sectors, respectively by 26 and 24 %.
180% 140% 100% 60% 20%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Total Agriculture Industry Construction Trade and services Transp ort  Figure 1. Changes in GDP in total and in separate economy sectors in Lithuania during 1990 – 2006 year period  Recovery of the Lithuanian economy has started from 1995. However, the Russian economy crisis in 1999 has showed that the economy of Lithuania was still much depended on Russian economy and decrease in the rate of economy growth was registered. Despite that, rather fast growth of GDP (59 % annually) is observed from the year 2000 (Fig. 1). Mainly due to the significant increase (by 2,3 times) in volume of goods transported transport sector grew even faster (more than 15 % per year). Trends of final energy consumption are presented in Figure 2.a. As it is seen from the presented data, pattern of changes in final energy consumption is completely different from that for GDP. During the 1990 – 2006 year period final energy consumption has decreased by 50 %. The reasons for this decrease could be improved energy consumption accounting system, increasing energy prices and technological
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gains. However, rather fast recent growth of GDP from 2000 resulted in some increase (11%) in final energy consumption, too. Some similar negative trends are observed in industry and transport sector from 2000. Final energy consumption in industry sector have increased by 8 %, in transport sector final energy consumption grew even faster and have increased by more than 20 % from year 2000 (Fig. 2).  120% 140% 100% 120% 80% 100% 80% 60%60% 40%40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Industry Construction Industry Household Agriculture Transport Agriculture Fishery Household Trade and services Total Total    (a) (b) Figure 2. Changes in final energy (a) and water consumption (b) in total and separate economy sectors during 1990 – 2006 year period  Analysis of water consumption changes (Fig. 2b) indicated, that during decline period water consumption decreased twofold and during the 1990 – 2006 period decrease was much more pronounced and water consumption in Lithuania decreased more than 4 times. These positive from the point of sustainability changes were driven by improved water accounting system and growing water prices. Due to these reasons and implementation of effective technologies, and cleaner production measures (Staniskis et al., 2006) water consumption in industry sector decreased nearly 5 times.  120% 120% 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Total Industry Transport Total P Total N Waste water     (a) (b) Figure 3. Changes in air pollution (a) and water pollution (b) during 1990 – 2006 year period  Emissions of acidifying pollutants were reduced considerably in Lithuania during 1990– 2006 year period (Fig. 3a.). Though reduction of air pollution during the period analyzed decreased more than threefold, from 2000 emission of acidifying pollutants were on slight increase up to the end of the investigated period.  9
Emissions of acidifying pollutants in industry sector decreased much more pronounced. The sixfold reduction was achieved due to structural industry changes, as well as fuel mix changes and reduction of sulphur in oil products from 1998. Different trends are seen in air pollution in transport sector. Despite overall twofold decrease, development of transport sector, increasing mobility and energy demand in this sector outweighed efficiency improvements in this sector and emission from transport sector have increased by 15 % from year 2000. Analysis of water pollution shows, that more than twofold decrease in wastewater generation resulted in significant reduction of discharge of pollutants into surface water. The discharges of nitrogen and phosphorus have decreased about 4 times during the period under analysis. The main reasons for these changes were significant investments in reconstruction and construction of water treatment plants especially in the last decade.  Changes in ecoefficiency of production Ecoefficiency analysis is based on resource intensity and pollution intensity. Changes in energy intensity are presented in Figure 4.a. As it can be seen, the main changes of energy intensity took place in the period of economy growth from year 1995. Energy intensity decreased twofold only during this period. Energy intensity in different sectors also decreased significantly. Amount of energy per unit of created GDP in industry and transport sectors decreased about 2,5 times during 1990 – 2006.    20016 y = 0,1833x2 9,2713x + 167,7614 y = 0,0316x2 1,3186x + 16,243 160R2= 0,951212 R2= 0,9691 12010 8 806 4 402 00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20061990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Energy intensity Trend Water intensity Trend   (a) (b) Figure 4. Changes in final energy intensity (a) and air pollution intensity (b) in Lithuania during 1990 – 2006 year period  In overall terms, significant positive changes in energy intensity reduction took place in Lithuania. Transition to the market economy, modernization of technologies as well as increased prices of energy resulted increase of ecoefficiency of production and services and favourable from the point of sustainability changes. We estimated that rather considerable reduction in energy intensity was characteristic for most of New EU Member states (Fig. 5). Despite the achieved progress, level of energy intensity in most studied countries remained essentially higher than in Old EU Member states (EU15) countries in 2002. However, our results show that Lithuania nearly reached the level of final energy intensity EU Old Member states on average in 2006. 10
Now this difference amounts approximately up to 7 %. These results suggest that Lithuania has nearly reached foreseen (NSSD, 2003) reduction targets of final energy intensity and now more attention should be paid to maintain these decreasing trends and absolute decoupling targets.  0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 EU15 Lithuania Czeck Estonia Hungary Latvia Poland Slovakia Slovenia Republic 1991 2002 2006  Figure 5. Comparison of final energy intensity in different countries  We have determined that water intensity was on decrease nearly the whole period under analysis (Fig. 4b). In total, water intensity decreased nearly 4.5 times during the 1990 – 2006. The reduction of water intensity in industry sector was about 4 times during the same period. We also analyzed changes in environmental pollution intensity (Fig. 6). We treated pollution intensity as amount of pollutants per resource unit consumed. As it is seen from the presented data (Fig. 6.a.), decrease in air pollution intensity was not so pronounced as in the case of energy intensity and during the period under analysis decreased only 1,8 times. This reduction could be explained by relatively weak attention to special environmental measures and positive changes are mostly related to increase in less polluting fuel consumption (natural gas, liquid gas). These issues also influenced air pollution intensity reduction in industry sectors (2, 2 times) and transport sector (1,5 times).    
 
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