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CAPSIM, documentation of model structure and implementation

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183 pages
ISSN 1725-0714CAPSIMDocumentation of Model Structure and ImplementationTHEMEAgriculture EUROPEAN and COMMISSION fisheries2005 EDITIONEurope Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European UnionFreephone number:00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet.It can be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu.int).Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2005ISSN 1725-0714ISBN 92-894-4587-4© European Communities, 2005 The CAPSIM model and this documentation were developed under Eurostat contract no. 200163500001 with EuroCARE GmbH, Bonn. Authors: H.eteritzkendndrea ZintlEuroCARE GmbH, Bonn) August003,ditorially evisedecember004 CAPSIM - Documentation of Model Structure and Implementation Table of contents 1. Introduction...................................................................................................4 2. Model structure and empirical specification .............................................5 2.1 Supply side ................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.1 Conceptual framework.......................................................................................................7 2.1.2 Parameterpec ification........................................................................................
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ISSN 1725-0714
CAPSIM
Documentation of
Model Structure
and Implementation
THEME
Agriculture
EUROPEAN and
COMMISSION fisheries
2005 EDITIONEurope Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union
Freephone number:
00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11
A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet.
It can be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu.int).
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2005
ISSN 1725-0714
ISBN 92-894-4587-4
© European Communities, 2005

The CAPSIM model and this documentation were developed under
Eurostat contract no. 200163500001 with EuroCARE GmbH, Bonn.

Authors: H.eteritzkendndrea ZintlEuroCARE GmbH, Bonn)

August003,ditorially evisedecember004





CAPSIM - Documentation of Model Structure and
Implementation


Table of contents

1. Introduction...................................................................................................4
2. Model structure and empirical specification .............................................5
2.1 Supply side ................................................................................................................ 7
2.1.1 Conceptual framework.......................................................................................................7
2.1.2 Parameterpec ification....................................................................................................13
2.1.3 Illustrativeesultsr omhecalibration ............................................................................24
2.1.4 Itiveimula tionesults...........................................................................................28
2.2 Consumer demand ................................................................................................. 31
2.2.1 Conceptual framework.....................................................................................................31
2.2.2 Parameterpec ification34
2.2.3 Illustrativeesultsr omhecalibration38
2.3 Processing................................................................................................................ 39
2.3.1 Standardase: Exog enousargins..................................................................................40
2.3.2 Explicitehaviouralfunctions .........................................................................................40
2.3.3 Specialas e: ilk.............................................................................................................41
2.3.4 Specialase: sugar ...........................................................................................................42
2.4 Prices, revenues, and policy................................................................................... 43
2.4.1 Revenuesndpremiums ..................................................................................................43
2.4.2 Sets ide ...........................................................................................................................44
2.4.3 Milk quotas ......................................................................................................................47
2.4.4 Internationalriceransmis sion.......................................................................................47
2.4.5 Intra-EUrice transmission .............................................................................................48
2.4.6 Sugaregime ................................................................................................................... .49
2.5 Market clearing ...................................................................................................... 53
2.5.1 Marketa lances ...............................................................................................................53
2.5.2 Regimesorark etlearing ............................................................................................54
2.5.3 TreatmentfWTOimitsnd grossraden formation....................................................58
2.6 Welfare measures in CAPSIM .............................................................................. 60
2.6.1 Producerelfare ..............................................................................................................6 0
2.6.2 Consumerelfare ............................................................................................................61
2.6.3 Processingndustryelfare .............................................................................................61
2.6.4 Budgetaryalculations.....................................................................................................62
3. Model input .................................................................................................66
3.1 Overview on input options and requirements ..................................................... 66
1 3.2 Consistent framework for physical and monetary database.............................. 68
3.2.1 Consistencye quirements ................................................................................................68
3.2.2 Mainataourcesnd echnicalmplem entation ............................................................72
3.2.3 Specialissue:alancesn milkatnd protein ...............................................................72
3.2.4 Specialssue: nutrientequ irementsnd contents ...........................................................74
3.2.5 Specialssue: c onsumerrices.........................................................................................76
3.2.6 Auxiliaryatafor thease year .......................................................................................82
3.3 Default trends ......................................................................................................... 83
3.3.1 Trendrojections forields .............................................................................................85
3.3.2 Trendrojections forreas ..............................................................................................87
3.3.3 Trendrojectionsor otherariables ...............................................................................90
3.4 Policy variables....................................................................................................... 93
3.4.1 Activityelatedpol icy variables ......................................................................................94
3.4.2 Productelatedariables: pricesnduotas ....................................................................95
3.5 Border prices .......................................................................................................... 97
3.6 Expert data.............................................................................................................. 99
4. Model output .............................................................................................100
4.1 Standard CAPSIM tables .................................................................................... 100
4.2 Selective output tables.......................................................................................... 101
4.3 Integrative output tables...................................................................................... 113
5. Software .....................................................................................................119
5.1 Core model software ............................................................................................ 119
5.1.1 PART I:etefinitions..................................................................................................119
5.1.2 II:atanput.......................................................................................................120
5.1.3 PART III:efineodeltructure andssignase yearata ........................................121
5.1.4 PART IV:nitialssignmentsfxoge nousvariablesorimulationyear...................126
5.1.5 PART V: Simulation......................................................................................................128
5.1.6 PART VI:tore odelesu lts .......................................................................................129
5.2 Auxiliary software used to initialise the model.................................................. 130
6. Options for further development ............................................................132
7. References..................................................................................................134
8. Appendix I: Codes and symbols..............................................................137
8.1 CAPSIM table: Column codes ............................................................................ 137
8.2 CAPSIM table: Row codes .................................................................................. 140
8.3 Sets in CAPSIM.................................................................................................... 144
8.4 Indices in CAPSIM............................................................................................... 145
8.5 Variables in CAPSIM .......................................................................................... 146
8.6 Parameters in CAPSIM ....................................................................................... 150
2 8.7 Function symbols.................................................................................................. 152
9. Appendix II: User Manual.......................................................................154
9.1 Choosing the type of simulation.......................................................................... 155
9.2 Relying on default trends..................................................................................... 156
9.3 Introducing expert information 158
9.4 Changing policy variables ................................................................................... 162
9.5 Supplying border prices....................................................................................... 166
9.6 Using updated parameters 168
9.7 Remembering everything .................................................................................... 170
10. Appendix III: Coverage of Candidate Countries...............................172
10.1 Background........................................................................................................... 172
10.2 Overview on I-SIM models for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.... 173
10.3 Database for the Candidate Country application of CAPSIM ........................ 173
10.4 Illustrative simulations on Candidate Countries using CAPSIM.................... 174
10.5 Current limitations for Candidate Country simulations.................................. 180

3 CAPSIM - Documentation of Model Structure
and Implementation

1
H.eteritzke,ndreaZintl
1. Introduction
CAPSIMsheostecentodellingoolorolic y relevantnalysisfheAP,hichas
developednehalff Eurostat.incehea rly 1980surostatupportedtheevelopmentf
a complete,onsistent,poateatabase forodelling effortsorldwide (“SPEL/EUase
System”).hesectivitiesereoonompleme ntedoetpheSPEL/EUediumerm
Forecastingnd Simulationystem”MFSS) whichasppliednariousccasionsforhe
EUommissionseeenrichsmeyer995forhisistory).
Nonethelesshe grown complexity ofFSStogetherithtsORTRANrittenode
renderedtinallyuiteintransparentuchhat inheeginningf999urostatanced
newffortoriggerheevelopmentf aransparent,lexible andser-friendlyolicy
informationystemortheAP.heewyst emhouldlsoelynurostatata,n
particularnheevisedAA,utthould only retainhoselementsfFSS,hich
turnedutseful.heorrespondingender aswonyheuropeanentrefor
Agricultural,egionalndnvironmentalolic yesearchEuroCARE)nonn,hichad
intimatenowledgebouttrengthsndeaknessesfhis historicallyrownmodelling
framework.mongheewharacteristicsaintainedasanctivity-basedtructurenhe
supplyide.hefirsthasenystemevelopm entesultednheo calledMFSS99”odel
(Witzke,erhoog,Zintl2001)hichchievedaign ificantncreasenechnicalransparency
whenoving fromFORTRANoheGAMSode .heecondhasef modelevelopment
wasevotedoddressertainumberf unresolvedroblems,eepingnindater
applicabilityoheandidateountries:
Improvements on the database
Theaseyearaseenpdatedo997/99,ncorporatingheevised Economicccountsn
AgricultureEAA)ata,nmprovedrocedure tonsure completeness ndonsistencyf
theatabase,evisedonsumerndeedr ices,isaggregatedilkector,evised
proceduresorrendrojectionsndariousmprovementsntherssues.oreimehan
plannedndesiredasnvestednheseasks asomeifficultiesere recognisednly
gradually.heodeloversheU15ember St ates,ggregatedo aingle regionnase
ofelgiumndLuxembourg,hereasheandida teountriesaveotbeenncludedhen
thisocumentationasrepared2003).

1 BothuroCARE Bonn.hile funding anduidanceyurostatscknowledgedheiews expressed n
thisocumentationreheuthors’ andoot necessarilyeflect thepinionsf theuropean
Commission. Criticalemarks by Geraldeber,aviderhoogndheAPSIMeferenceroupr eatly
improvedurwork,utllemainingrrorsreurs.
4Improvements on parameters and functional forms
MFSS99eliednoubleog behavioural functions,hichcouldotaintain
microeconomiconsistency globallyndadoely nrudessumptionsrairlyldetsf
elasticities.nheontrary,APSIMeaturesemandndupply sideystemsully
consistentithicrotheory.llarametersave eenealibratedncorporatinghatever a
priorinformationasvailable.healibrati onrocedureseveloped shouldepplicable
toandidateountriesase llfteruitableodification.n nnovative approachaseen
developedoncorporatebalancesnenergy androteinnheevisedupplyide.
Additional model components
Aimplifiedudgetomponentndomponent oronsumerndrocessingndustry
welfare automaticallyermitoive a complete welfare analysisor eacholicyimulation
rather thannly agricultural income effects.heugar CMOaseen incorporatedith
considerableetailteastomparedoostther completeectorodels.Uorderrices
areenderedndogenousowithheelp feryimpleradecomponent.
User-friendliness
Adocpecificationfxogenousarameters in heource codeasbeeneplacedith
transparentmportromnputiles.xoge nousnputacilitiesaveeenhoroughly
reorganised.ariousptionsorxogenousn putoheeferenceunhaveeencreated
whichre automaticallyakenvernolicyimulations.hismproveshe clarity ofhe
sourceodendelpsheserotransl ateisdeasintoorrespondingechnical
specifications.dditionalutputacilitiesaveeen created.
The followingeportives ratheretailedcco untfheevisedodelndhessociated
infrastructure.Ithouldelpheodelxpe rtreadingheourceodeonderstandhe
technicalolutionndommentsherein,uchhatariableamesaveeen chosenimilar
tohosenhecodef readability permits. OperatorsfAPSIMsing GSEhouldind
detailedxplanationf theodel’sunctionality.heyillinddditionalelpnppendix
II:seranualinallyeadersndsers ofodelesultshouldindhenformation
necessaryoraorrect interpretationndevalua tionfheseesults.ppendix III:overage
ofandidateountriessn illustrationfurrentapabilities andheirimitationsoover
Canditateountries.
Theextectionresents theModeltructureandmpiricalpecification”.heollowing
sectionsnifferent typesfModel nput” fromheatabase,olicyariableso
exogenousxpertata.hisasheharac terfgeneraleferenceanualhereas
Appendix II:seranualsnntroductionorperators.ectionresentsModelutput”
inifferentechnicalorms,hichrevailabl eosers.heextectionSoftware”gives
additionaluidancehroughhenterlinkedet ofrograms.inalainectionresents
Optionsorurtherevelopment“.
2. Model structure and empirical specification
CAPSIMstraightforwardartialequilibriumodellingoolwithehavioural functions
forctivityevels,nputdemand, consumeremandndrocessing . Itsdesignedorolicy
relevantnalysisfheAP a ndonsequentlyoversheholefagriculturefUember
5StatesnheonceptsftheAAnighe velfisaggregation,othnheistfncluded
itemssellsnolicy coverage.heector widepproachsnpportunity toecognise
variousnterdependenciesithinheectorutitslso challenge regardinghe empirical
specification.irmicroeconomicasiss consideredsefulereoncreasehe
plausibility ofimulationehavi our,onderstandheodelsr opertiesandoubstituteo
somextentorhoroughconomet ricnalysishichhasnot beenossibleoargiven
available resources.Thisxpositionillxplainheodeltructureromheheoretical
backgroundohempiricalpecificationno meetail,owever mittingessmportant
specialasesndome empiricalspectsfhemplementationhichreescribednetail
inheommentsncludednheAMSode.
Theollowing descriptionilli stinguisheveralomponents:
• Theupply componentithupply of agriculturalproductsndnputemand,
• theinalemandomponentortrayingonsumer behaviour,
• thearketndolicy componentncludi ngheinkageoorldarkets,
• andinally auxiliaryutputoutines.
2
Weillsehe followingotation :
Table 2.1-1: Notational principles
Item Example Notation
Exogenousariableso rllaluesfet XY AteastwopperaseLatin
indicespossibly changed inifferent letters,nderlined
simulations)
Exogenousariablesoromealuesf XY AteastwopperaseLatin
setndices,ndogenousortheralues lettersntalics
Endogenousariablesorllaluesfet XY seLatin
indices lettersnegular font
Matrixfndogenousariables XY AteastwopperaseLatin
lettersnoldont
Parametersinvariant inifferent Singlemallreekettersα
simulations)
Matrixfarameters A SingleppercaseLatinettersn
boldont
Indices i,j SinglemallLatinetters
Functions Singlemallreekettersr π(.),(.)
singlepper-caseLatinettersn
regularont
Sets ITEM Upper-caseatinlettersnregular
font
Setembers SHWE Smallaps

2 A variablesonsideredxogenousfts a policynstrument orftsirectly determined byxog enous
assumptions,forxamplerends.lltherariablesreonsideredteastormallyndogenous.
62.1 Supply side
2.1.1 Conceptualramework
Exogenous yields
Yieldsreassumedoexogenous,pecifiedaccordingoecentrends.heresmpirical
somevidenceohecontraryJensen996; Guyomard,Baudry,arpentier,996),utt
appearshatariationsnnte nsity addittleoheotalupply response.It appearedherefore
thatomeenefitsfimplifiedtructureere available at ratherowcost.hepecification
forroductionsherefore:
3 PRD = Σ YLD * LVL ) (1)PRD_ m,i j m,i,j m,j
where
PRD = productionftem ∈ ITEMnembertate m,i
LVL = levelusuallyard)f productioncroprnimal)ctivity j ∈ACTn m,j
EUembertate
YLD = (exogenous)yieldfctivitynermsfutputnembertatem,i,j
Profit function framework
Annnovativelementnheupplyidewille toombineheualrofitunctionpproach
withomespectsfnxplicitrimalt echnologyescription,a mely explicitandnd
nutrientonstraints.Inhisay weaympos eomeechnologicalonstraints,utithout
theequirementopecifyherimalechnolog ynulletailsouldeheasen
standardrogramming model.ecause we wantoseicroeconomic restrictionsnhe
calibrationfehaviouralunctions,eill proceedromatandardprofitaximisation
setting andndpithehavioural functionsirmly rootednhisramework.ctivityevels
andnputemandsrehusons ideredaximising choicesfheemberState’sgricultural
sector,ubjectoalancesnand,nergynd proteintoencludedxplicitlynAPSIM),
andndditionalechnology constraint .Theatterummarisesheffectsfther m
nutrientsndcarceabourndapital,hic hrenotxplicitlyepresented in CAPSIM:
~π()REV ,PP =m m m

max {REV ' LVL ? PP ' INP :m m m m
LVL ,INPm m
AREA = λ LVLm, j m,jj
η LVL = η INP (2)m,j m,j m,i m,i
j∈AACT i∈FEED
ρ LVL = ρ INPm,j m,j m,i m,i
j∈AACT i∈FEED
T (LVL ,INP ) =0 }m m m

3 Ifnquationf thisocumentationorrespondslosely withnquation from theodefheA PSIM
coreodel,we givetsAMS name forheeadernterestednheechnicalmplementation.
7
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