NON-FOSSIL DERIVED HYDROGEN IN COAL CONVERSION PROCESSES: THE FUTURE OF COAL CONVERSION IN THE EEC. Report

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Commission of the European Communities
energy
NON-FOSSIL DERIVED HYDROGEN
COAL CONVERSION PROCESSES:
THE FUTURE OF COAL CONVERSION
IN THE EEC
Report
EUR 7661/11 EN
Blow-up from microfiche original Commission of the European Communities
energy
NON-FOSSIL DERIVED HYDROGEN
IN COAL CONVERSION PROCESSES:
THE FUTURE OF COAL CONVERSION
IN THE EEC
WESTON B.S.
OPERATIONAL RESEARCH EXECUTIVE
National Coal Board
Harrow - U.K.
SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT TO THE FINAL REPORT
Contract N° 705-79 EHUK
Directorate-General for Research, Science and Development
1982 EUR 7661/11 EN Published by the
COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
Directorate-General
Information Market and Innovation
Bâtiment Jean Monnet
LUXEMBOURG
LEGAL NOTICE
Neither the Commission of the European Communities nor any person
acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might
be made of the following information
ECSC-EEG-EAEC Brussels · Luxembourg 1982 NON-FOSSIL DERIVED HYDROGEN IN COAL CONVERSION PROCESSES
THE FUTURE OF COAL CONVERSION IN THE E.E.C,
by
B.S. Weston
Operational Research Executive
National Coal Board
Harrow
U.K. CON'TENTS
Page No.
SUMMARY
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Objective
1.2 Arrangements
2. APPROACH 3.
2.1 The Model
2.2 Energy Prices 6
2.2.1 Import prices
2.2.1.1 crude oil2 natural gas 7
2.2.1.3 coal 8 4 nuclear fuel 9
2.2.2 EEC energy prices 10
2.3 Constraints on Energy Supply and Usage
2.4 The Scenarios
2.4.1 Energy supplies
2.4.2 Discount rate1
2.4.3 Scenarios modelled2
3. RESULTS 16
3.1 Interpretation
3.2 Priorities in Coal Usage9
3.3s in Nuclear Energy Usage 2
4. CONCLUSIONS 4
5. REFERENCES
APPENDIX
LI?" OF TABLES
13 1. '.able 2.1 Estimates of relative future oil prices
2. Tjible 2.2s of future coal imports to the EEC -4
3. Table 2.3 The scenarios 15
/ii, - 11 -
Page No.
4. Table 3.1 Coal conversion process operation, cases 1A1 & 1A2 24
5.e 3.2 Coalns, cases 1A3 & IB5
6. Table 3.3 Coal conversion process operation, cases 2A1 & 2A2 26
7.e 3.4 Coalns, cases 2A3 & 2B 27".
8. Table 3.5 Coal usage by period (all cases) 28
9.e 3.6 The marginal values and import prices for fossil fuels 29
LIST OF FIGURES
se, case 1A1 Fig. 3.1 Primary Energy U 30
" case 1A2 Fig. 3.2 " 31
"e 1A3 Fig. 3.332
" case IB Fig. 3.4 » 33
34 "e 2A1 Fig. 3.5 "
» case 2A2 Fig. 3.635
36 11e 2A3 Fig. 3.7 "
" case 2B 37 Fig. 3.8
Fig. 3.9 Secondary Energy Use, case 1A1 38
" case 1A2 39 Fig. 3.10
"e 1A3 40 Fig. 3.11
" case IB 41 Fig. 3.12 "
42 Fig. 3.13 '» "e 2A1
43. Fig. 3.14 " case 2A2
44 Fig. 3.15 » 11e 2A3
45 Fig. 3.16 " " case 2B SUMMARY
This report covers the final part of the work carried out by the
NCB under the EEC contract No. XII 797/76/705-79 EHUK and describes an
assessment of the market potential for using non-fossil derived (NFD)
hydrogen in coal conversion processes in the EEC.
This assessment was conducted in co-operation with Queen Mary
College Industrial Research Ltd. (QMC (IRL)), using a linear programme
that models the EEC energy system. This programme is being developed
for the European Commission (DGXII) by QMC (IRL).
The exercise involved revisions to the energy model to include
the coal conversion processes of interest. This required a number of
changes to the model, particularly to the time period analysed. The
body of the supply and demand data used was that developed by QMC (IRL)
under a previous contract for the European Commission. These data were
collected from national energy organisations so that data for one EEC
country are not consistent with those for other member states. It was
not possible to resolve these inconsistencies within the effort available
for the present exercise.
The linear programme model requires, as input data, estimates of
the future prices and availabilities of world energy supplies. Because
there is considerable uncertainty about these estimates, a range was
considered. It was found that the main factors determining the intro­
duction of coal conversion processes were the price and availability of coal and nuclear power. A scenario approach was adopted, and two
scenarios (each with four variants) were developed. These may be
characterised as a high nuclear development/high coal price scenario
and a low nuclear development/low coal price scenario. Each conversion
process is therefore examined both in the context of nuclear power
making a major contribution to primary energy supplies and where coal
is the dominant energy source.
The results are presented on an aggregated EEC basis (rather than,
nationally), and illustrate how coal penetrated the various energy markets
and the way in which NFD hydrogen may assist in coal conversion.
Coal first supplies combustion requirements and, only when sufficient
quantities are available, is it converted to liquid or gaseous fuels.
This indicates the high value to the EEC in effecting the direct sub­
stitution of coal for oil and gas.
The degree of nuclear development is an important factor in the
market requirement for coal conversion. This is because the products
of coal conversion compete with electricity in some markets, so that if
electricity gains these markets, some of the coal conversion products
are not needed. Other sectors, eg transport and petrochemicals, are
relatively secure markets for coal conversion products.
The market potential for liquefaction is greater than for SNG
manufacture. Liquefaction has a final market of 4200 PJ/a to 8800 PJ/a