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Adjustment Policies, Poverty, and Unemployment

De
560 pages
Pierre-Richard Agénor’s pioneering work on Integrated Macroeconomics Models for Poverty Analysis (IMMPA) is cataloged for the first time in this must-read volume.

A class of dynamic computable general equilibrium models, IMMPA models are designed to analyze the impact of adjustment policies on unemployment and poverty in the developing world. Including both papers originally circulated through the World Bank, as well as new material that places this important work in its larger context, Adjustment Policies, Poverty, and Unemployment details the history and uses of these models to date, as well as pointing to future developments for their utilization.

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Contents
Acknowledgments
About the Editors
1
Introduction and Overview Pierre-Richard Agénor, Alejandro Izquierdo, and Henning Tarp Jensen
The Analytics of Segmented Labor Markets Pierre-Richard Agénor 1.1 Overview of Labor Markets 1.1.1 Basic Structure 1.1.2 Composition of Employment 1.1.3 Public Sector Pay and Employment 1.1.4 Labor Market Institutions and Regulations 1.1.5 Unemployment 1.2 Urban Labor Mobility and the Harris-Todaro Framework 1.3 Wage Formation in the FormalSector 1.3.1 Efficiency Wages 1.3.2 Trade Unions 1.3.3 Bilateral Bargaining 1.3.4 Job Search 1.3.5 Adverse Selection Models 1.4 A Shirking Modelwith Segmented Markets 1.4.1 The Economy 1.4.2 Equilibrium with Skilled Unemployment 1.4.3 Labor Mobility and Unskilled Unemployment 1.4.4 Increase in the Minimum Wage 1.5 Concluding Remarks Appendix: The Impact of a Change in the Minimum Wage
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9 9 11 12 13 22 24 27 28 42 44 45 47 47 48 51 56 59 62 63
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The Macroeconomics of Poverty Reduction Pierre-Richard Agénor 2.1 A Distorted Agenda 2.1.1 A Topic Neglected by Macroeconomists 2.1.2 An Excessive Focus on Micro Aspects and Measurement Issues 2.1.3 The Confusion over “Pro-Poor Growth” 2.2 Transmission of Macro Shocks to the Poor 2.2.1TheCentralRoleoftheLaborMarket 2.2.2 Changes in Aggregate Demand 2.2.3 Expenditure Deflators and Inflation 2.2.4TheRealExchangeRateandtheSupplySide 2.2.5 Macroeconomic Volatility 2.2.6 Growth and DistributionalEffects 2.2.7 Recessions and Crises: Asymmetric Effects 2.3 Theoretical Models for Poverty Analysis 2.3.1 A Two-Household Framework 2.3.2 Equilibrium 2.3.3 Cut in Government Spending 2.4 Some Research Directions 2.4.1 Poverty Traps 2.4.2 Asymmetric Effects of Output Shocks 2.4.3 Welfare Costs of Macroeconomic Volatility 2.4.4 Unemployment–Poverty Trade-offs 2.4.5 Can Redistribution Hurt the Poor? 2.5 Concluding Remarks Appendix A: Asymmetric Effects of Output Shocks Appendix B: Dynamic Structure and Stability Conditions
The Mini Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Poverty Analysis Pierre-Richard Agénor 3.1 Structure of Mini-IMMPA 3.1.1 Production 3.1.2 The Labor Market 3.1.3 Supply and Demand 3.1.4 ExternalTrade 3.1.5 Prices 3.1.6 Profits and Income 3.1.7 Private Consumption and Savings 3.1.8 Private Investment 3.1.9 Public Sector 3.1.10 Balance of Payments 3.1.11 Poverty and DistributionalEffects
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3.2 Policy Experiments 3.2.1 Reduction in the Minimum Wage 3.2.2 Cut in Payroll Taxes on Unskilled Labor 3.3 Conclusions Appendix: Calibration and Parameter Values
Contents
Unemployment and Labor Market Policies in Morocco Pierre-Richard Agénor and Karim ElAynaoui 4.1 The Labor Market in Morocco 4.1.1 Basic Structure 4.1.2 Employment, Unemployment, and the Returns to Education 4.1.3 Regulatory and Institutional Features 4.1.4 Wage Flexibility 4.1.5 Domestic and InternationalLabor Migration 4.1.6 Constraints and Challenges 4.2 A Quantitative Framework 4.2.1 Production 4.2.2 Wages, Employment, Migration, and Skills Acquisition 4.2.3 Supply and Demand 4.2.4 ExternalTrade 4.2.5 Prices 4.2.6 Profits and Income 4.2.7 Consumption, Savings, and Investment 4.2.8 Government 4.2.9 Balance of Payments 4.3 Policy Experiments 4.3.1 Cut in the Minimum Wage 4.3.2 Reduction in Payroll Taxes on Unskilled Labor 4.4 Concluding Remarks Appendix: Calibration and Parameter Values
The Complete IMMPA Framework for Low-Income Countries Pierre-Richard Agénor, Alejandro Izquierdo, and Hippolyte Fofack 5.1 ModelStructure 5.1.1 Production 5.1.2 Wage Formation, Employment, Migration, and Skills Acquisition 5.1.3 Supply and Demand 5.1.4 ExternalTrade
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181 185 188 189 191 193 193 197 204 206 206 208 210 211 213 214 214 221 228 230
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5.2 5.3
5.4
5.5
5.1.5 Prices 5.1.6 Profits and Income 5.1.7 Savings, Consumption, and Investment 5.1.8 FinancialSector 5.1.9 Public Sector Poverty and Income Distribution Indicators Calibration 5.3.1InitialValues 5.3.2 Parameter Values Some Illustrative Experiments 5.4.1 Terms-of-Trade Shock 5.4.2 Cut in Domestic Credit to Government 5.4.3 Debt Reduction and Expenditure Reallocation Conclusions
250 253 255 257 262 267 275 275 277 277 278 289 299 327
Stabilization Policy, Poverty, and Unemployment in Brazil 329 Pierre-Richard Agénor, Reynaldo Fernandes, Eduardo Haddad, and Henning Tarp Jensen 6.1 An IMMPA Framework for Brazil331 6.1.1 Production 332 6.1.2 Wages, Employment, Migration, and Skills Acquisition 334 6.1.3 Supply and Demand 339 6.1.4 ExternalTrade 340 6.1.5 Prices 341 6.1.6 Profits and Income 343 6.1.7Savings,FinancialWeatlh,andInvestment344 6.1.8 Asset Allocation and the Financial Sector 345 6.1.9 Public Sector 349 6.1.10 Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate 353 6.1.11 Currency and Bond Market Equilibrium 354 6.2 Poverty and Income Distribution Indicators 355 6.3 Calibration and Survey Characteristics 359 6.4 Stabilization, Unemployment, and Poverty 359 6.5 Concluding Remarks 371 Appendix C: Calibration and Parameter Values 373
Disinflation, Fiscal Sustainability, and Labor Market Adjustment in Turkey Pierre-Richard Agénor, Henning Tarp Jensen, Mathew Verghis, and Erinç Yeldan 7.1 Structure of the Model388 7.1.1 Production
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7.1.2 The Labor Market 7.1.3 Export Supply and Import Demand 7.1.4 Aggregate Supply and Demand 7.1.5 Profits and Income 7.1.6 Savings and Wealth Accumulation 7.1.7 Private Investment 7.1.8 Asset Allocation and the Credit Market 7.1.9 Public Sector 7.1.10 The Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate 7.1.11 Currency and Bond Market Equilibrium 7.1.12 Price Determination 7.1.13 Default Risk, Credibility, and Expectations 7.2 Calibration and Solution 7.3 Policy Experiments 7.3.1 Increase in OfficialInterest Rates 7.3.2 FiscalAdjustment 7.4 Concluding Remarks Appendix: Calibration and Parameter Values
Contents
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391 400 400 401 404 405 408 417 419 420 421 423 426 426 427 437 454 456
Linking Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis: A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies 465 Pierre-Richard Agénor, Derek H. C. Chen, and MichaelGrimm
8.1 Macro-RHG Models and Poverty Analysis 8.2 Linking Income Survey Data with Macro-RHG Models 8.2.1 A Simple Micro-Accounting Method 8.2.2 An Extension with Reweighting Techniques 8.2.3 The Use of Distribution Functions 8.3 The Macro-RHG Framework 8.3.1 Production and the Labor Market 8.3.2 Composition of Demand and Prices 8.3.3 Profits and Income 8.3.4 Investment–Savings Balance 8.3.5 Public Sector and the Balance of Payments 8.4 Comparing Policy Shocks with Alternative Linkages 8.4.1 Reduction in the Minimum Wage 8.4.2 Increase in Employment Subsidies 8.5 Conclusions Appendix A: Reweighting when Using RealSurvey Data Appendix B: Estimated Shape Parameters and Fitted Poverty Measures with Beta Distribution Functions
466 467 468 470 472 476 476 478 478 479 479 479 480 491 502 504
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Contents
Some Research Perspectives Pierre-Richard Agénor, Alejandro Izquierdo, and Henning Tarp Jensen 9.1 Labor Market Structure and Policies 9.2 Macroeconomic Effects of Foreign Aid 9.3 Public Investment, Growth, and Congestion Costs 9.4 Linking Macro Models and Surveys
References
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