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Structure and Agent in the Scientific Diplomacy of Climate Change. An Empirical Case Study of Science-Policy Interaction in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Research input constitutes a key component in the development of international environmental regime formation. Science-policy interaction is, however, complex and difficult, particularly because it is an encounter between two distinct systems of behaviour: the scientific ideal of impartiality and disinterestedness and the political reality of interest realisation and strategic behaviour. This study analyses the extent to which and how the institutional framework within which the science-policy dialogue takes place - through conscious design - can be utilised as an instrument to handle obstacles and barriers immanent of science-policy interaction and thereby serve as an instrument to enhance the effectiveness of the dialogue. Also, the impact of actor behaviour, particularly behaviour taking the form of leadership performance, is investigated. This book provides a detailed and in-depth empirical study of science-policy interaction in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from its establishment in 1988, to the provision of the Second IPCC Assessment Report in 1995. The main focus of the empirical investigation is on Working Group I of the IPCC.

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Contents
Acronyms
Acknowledgements
Chapter 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Chapter 2 2.1 2.2 2.3
2.3.1 2.4 2.5
2.6
Chapter 3 3.1 3.2 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.3
Introduction Structure and Agent in Science–Policy Interaction The Scientific Diplomacy of Climate Change Structure of the book Generalisations
Effectiveness in Processes of Science–Policy Interaction Introduction Effectiveness as Realisation of Official Purpose Policy Acceptance as Reflected in a Consensual Problem Diagnosis The Development of a Consensual Problem Diagnosis Towards a Comprehensive Definition of Effectiveness A “Consensual Problem Diagnosis” versus “Consensual Knowledge” In Sum
The Science–Policy Nexus Introduction The Internal Dynamics of Scientific Inquiry The Role of Consensus in Science The Development of Consensus in Science In Sum The Internal Dynamics of Politics
ix
xi
1 1 5 7 10
13 13 14
17 18 20
22 24
27 27 28 29 34 40 40
vi
3.3.1
3.3.2 3.3.3 3.3.4 3.3.5 3.4 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.5
Chapter 4
4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3.1 4.3.2 4.4 4.4.1 4.4.2 4.5 4.5.1 4.5.2 4.5.3
4.5.4
4.6 4.6.1 4.6.2 4.7
Chapter 5
5.1 5.2 5.3
5.4 5.5
The Strategic Value of Information in Distributive Bargaining The Role of Information in Integrative Bargaining The Dilemmas of Mixed Bargaining What Kind of Information is Needed and When? In Sum The Dynamics of Science–Policy Interaction Scientific Knowledge as Legitimisation for Policy Choice “Negotiating” Knowledge In Sum
Designing Institutions for Science–Policy Interaction Introduction Institutions Defined Do Institutions Matter, and Can They be Designed? Social Institutions as Rational, Natural and Open Systems Institutions as Instruments Realising the Instrumental Potential of Institutional Design Institutional Functions Linking Functions to Institutional Devices Leadership Performance Leadership Performance in Negotiations The Role of Scientific Elites Leadership Functions in Processes of Science–Policy Interaction Links Between Institutional Design and Leadership Performance Problem Malignancy and the State of Knowledge Problem Malignancy State of Knowledge In Sum
The Development of an International Regime on a HumanInduced Climate Change Introduction The Problem of a HumanInduced Climate Change The Scientific and Political History of the Development of an International Regime on a HumanInduced Climate Change The Effectiveness of the Science–Policy Dialogue In Sum
41 45 49 51 55 56 57 61 63
65 65 66 67 68 69 71 71 73 80 81 83
84
87 87 88 90 90
93 93 93
97 100 103
Chapter 6
6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3.1 6.3.2
6.3.3
6.4
6.4.1 6.4.2 6.4.3 6.4.4 6.5 6.5.1 6.5.2
Chapter 7
7.1 7.2 7.2.1 7.2.2 7.2.3 7.2.4
7.2.5
7.3 7.3.1 7.3.2 7.4
Chapter 8 8.1 8.2
8.3
Structure: The Institutional Design of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Introduction The Institutional Setup of the IPCC The Assessment Process of the IPCC The Assessment Process in Principle The Assessment Process in Practice: The Proceedings of WGI The Assessment Process in Practice – In Contrast to the Proceedings of the Old WGIII The Capacity of the Institutional Arrangements of the IPCC to Serve the Four Main Functions Scientific Autonomy Science–Policy Integration Geographic Representativeness Mechanisms for Conflict Resolution Enhanced Effectiveness? Score Effect
vii
105 105 106 109 109
112
119
123 123 126 130 132 142 142 145
Agent: Leadership Performance in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change151 Introduction151 Identifying Leadership Performance152 Actor Capabilities153 Leadership in the Development of the Knowledge Base156 Leadership in the Transformation of Scientific Knowledge161 Boundaryrole leadership in the Development of Institutional Arrangements168 Boundaryrole Leadership in the Provision of Communicative Links177 Institutional Conditions for Leadership Performance182 A Mandate for Leadership?183 Leadership Recruitment186 Enhanced Effectiveness?188
Causal Relationship: Real or Spurious? Introduction The Political Malignancy of the Problem of a Human Induced Climate Change The State of Knowledge
193 193
196 206
viii
8.3.1 8.3.2 8.3.3 8.4
Chapter 9
References
Appendix
Index
The Scientific Uncertainty of Climate Change The IPCC’s handling of Scientific Uncertainty In Sum Causal Relationship: Real?
Structure and Agent in the Scientific Diplomacy of Climate Change
207 210 219 220
225
235
249
251
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