Le développement des marchés des ebooks

At Kearney

Sujets

• E-book
• Märket
• Livre électronique

Informations

• Publié par: jpc
• Publié le: 15 mars 2012
• Nombre de lectures: 200
• Langue: Français
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 2 Mo

Extrait

Reading Digital: Where Are We? Where Are We Going?
Do Readers Dream of Electronic Books?

Presentation for the IfBookThen 2012 Conference
ndMilan, February 2 2012
Giovanni Bonfanti (A.T. Kearney), Edoardo Bottai (A.T. Kearney), Marco Ferrario (BookRepublic) Preface
Objective
■ Provide an overview of digital publishing in Europe, Asia, South America and
North America, highlighting the primary differences and emerging trends
Approach
■W  e’ve surveyed countries that cover 80% of the global book market
■Al  l the numbers presented for 2011 derive from:
1 •  40 interviews with key players (publishers, retailers…) from major markets
•  Analysis of public data from public sources / press search
■T  his is an ongoing research project that debuted at IfBookThen 2011 and was
presented in Frankfurt (Publisher’s launch); London (Futurebook) and New York
(DBW)
All the analysis presented in these pages are a summary of a larger research
that was developed as a joint effort of A.T. Kearney and Bookrepublic
1.  EU: UK, France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Netherlands; North America: US, Canada; South America: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina;
Asia: Japan, India, China, Australia, South Korea A.T. Kearney 2 eBook market size is ~€2.4 Bn – Europe is third largest region
eBook Trade Market Size Regional eBook Market
Share by Country (mln€; 2011E)
1900-2000 • U.S.: 98%
• Canada: 2%
• UK: 52%
• Germany: 28%
• South Korea: 45% • France: 7%
• Japan: 25%
• Italy: 3%
• China: 25%
• Spain: <2%
• Other: ~5%
• Other: ~8%
• Brazil: 40% - 50%
250-270
170-180
1
North America South Asia EU
America
eBook 17%-18% <0.1% 2.2%- 2.4% 1%-1.1% penetration
A.T. Kearney 3 Source: interview with a panel of publishers / bookretailers, press search, EUROSTA, PWC, U.S. Bureau, AAP, A.T. Kearney Key market drivers vary by country
eBook Market Penetration 7%
<1.5% (%; 2011E)
0.9%
UK Japan
0.5% 20% Germany
14-15%
France
0.5%
<0.5%
U.S. <1% Italy
South Spain
In US about 33% Korea
of device owners China
have eReader +
tablet
0.9% Xx%
<0.1%
E-book penetration
Selection of countries Australia Brazil
analyzed
USA Brazil Australia Japan China UK Germany France Italy Spain Drivers as of 2011
Availability of
titles in local 2,700,000 8,000 400,000 50,000 270,000 400,000 80,000 60,000 15,000 15,000
language
40 0.5 0.8 2 7 2.7 2.65 1.8 0.7 0.6 Tablet Penetration
(mln; %)
20% <0.5% 4% 1.6% 0.5% 4.4% 3.2% 2.9% 1.2% 1.8%
eReader 40 7.8 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.14 0.4
Penetration n.a. n.a
20% <0.1% 0.6% 4.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.25% 0.8% (mln; %)
A.T. Kearney 4
Source: interview with a panel of publishers / bookretailers, press search, EUROSTA, PWC, U.S. Bureau, AAP, A.T. Kearney / Bookrepublic analysis., Harris Interactive Poll, Pew Internet New release eBook price is ~10€ with variation by country
1Average eBook price for new releases
(€ - average from interviews with publishers / book retailers )
15,0
 Differences in eBook 14,0
price derive from factors 2,513,0
like: 2,1 12,0
VAT -  Taxation (VAT) 2,2 11,010,9
-  Difference in pricing of 2,4
Av.9.98 1,7 1,9 9,3 “correspondent” print (netVAT)
book
7,5 -  Legislation (ex. max
discount of print book)
12,5 11,9 -  Agency model PricenetVAT 10,8
9,6 9,3 -  Currency fluctuations 9,2 9,1
7,5  In each country we
identified several cases of
eBook prices that differ
significantly from average
UK Ger France Spain Sweden Italy Brazil U.S.
1 Average eBook prices of new Hardcover releases A.T. Kearney 5
Source: interviews with publishers / bookretailers; A.T. Kearney / Bookrepublic analysis “Traditional” factors create growth patterns
Expected penetration of eBooks after 5 years from adoption
(% of trade book sales)
20% U.S. 2011 20%
 eBook penetration grows
18% 16%-17% with varying speeds
depending on:
Early 16%
Adopters
•  Technology •  UK 14%
•  Canada “proficiency”:
•  South Korea –  Internet penetration
12% •  …
–  Mobile penetration
–  eReader/ tablet 10%
U.K. 2011 penetration
Second
8% –  eCommerce Wave
6%-7% penetration •  Germany
6% •  France
•  Italy •  eBook market
•  … 4% readiness:
–  eBook title availability Latecomers 2% Ger. 2011 –  eBook price strategy 1%-2% •  India 0.3% 0.1%
•  Latin America –  Taxation (VAT) 0.1% 0% •  … –  Big player presence
1 2 3 4 5
Years of adoption
Source: interview with a panel of European publishers, press research; A.T. Kearney / BookRepublic analysis A.T. Kearney 6

Penetration“Non traditional” drivers accelerate growth
The new “Digital Wheel” value chain of the Technological drivers
Publishing Industry of change
1
Self publishing &
digital publishing
5programs
D.M.D.
2 4
Customer Digital Marketing &
reading behavior D.A.S. Distribution
1
Digital Asset Asset Value 3 3
Sourcing
Customer
behavior profiling
4
Ratings, reviews
2(Metadata)
5
Social reading D.A.M.
and networking
Digital Asset Management
(Metadata sharing)
A.T. Kearney 7 How the drivers of change could impact the size and structure
of the book market? – The U.S. case
U.S. AAP trade book market U.S. AAP trade book market
($mln) (#)
4,1%
222 -5,4% 213 3185
266 3012 E-book
(8%) 28
(13%)649 72+144% +158%
(22%) (32%)
E-book
Paper
book 2,008
185(92%)
1,695 (87%)-19% -19% 150(78%)
(68%)Paper
book
jan - aug jan - aug jan - aug jan - aug
2011 2010 2011 2010

A.T. Kearney 8 Source:AAP,AnalysisA.T.KearneyHow the drivers of change could impact the size and structure
of the book market? – The UK case
UK trade book market UK trade book market
(£mln) (#)
+0,5%+5,2%
144 145 411 391 1 728 +560% +263% 8 (1%)E-book E-book (5%)(7%)(2%)
Paper Paper 143 139book book383 384 +0,1% -3,4% (99%) (95%)(98%) (93%)
jan - jun jan - jun jan - jun jan - jun
2010 2011 2010 2011

A.T. Kearney 9 Source:ThePublishersAssocia onLtd,AnalysisA.T.KearneySelf-published ebooks are experiencing success in the U.S.
reducing publisher turnover by $ 70mln - $ 120mln
% of selfpublished titles in Kindle Store Self-publishing is an established trend
driven by the growth of the ebook top 100 paid ebooks in U.S. market:
26% 26% •  in 2010, there was almost no self-
published titles in Amazon top 100 paid
ebooks 22%
21%
20%
18% •  in 2011, in volume terms self-published
17% books counts for 3%-5% of the total
ebook market
14% 14%
13%
•  US self-publishing market size:
$ 20mln - $ 30mln
•  Resulting revenue loss for publishers is
1 $ 70mln - $ 120mln in 2011
Apr2011 May Jun2011 Jul2011 Aug2011Sep2011Oct2011nov2011dic2011 gen2012
2011
Average price for self published books is 1,5$ -2 $
(range between 0,99$ and 4,99$)
1 Assuming 10$ per p-book as turnover for publishers A.T. Kearney 10
Source: Kindle Store Bestsellers archive, A.T. Kearney - BookRepublic analysis