Patrimonial capitalism [Elektronische Ressource] : economic reform and economic order in the Arab world / vorgelegt von Oliver Schlumberger

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EBERHARD-KARLS UNIVERSITÄT TÜBINGEN INSTITUT FÜR POLITIKWISSENSCHAFT PATRIMONIAL CAPITALISM ___________________________________________________ Economic Reform and Economic Order in the Arab World Inauguraldissertation zur Erlangung des Grades eines Doktors der Politikwissenschaft vorgelegt von Oliver Schlumberger, M.A. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Peter Pawelka Prof. Andreas Boeckh, Ph.D. Tübingen, den 26.04.2004 Urheberschafts-Erklärung Hiermit erkläre und bestätige ich, vorliegende Arbeit selbst- und eigenständig und ohne andere als die angegebenen Hilfsmittel verfasst zu haben. --------------------------------- Tübingen, den 25. April 2004 Oliver Schlumberger Promotions-Erklärung Hiermit erkläre und bestätige ich, an keiner anderen Hochschule und in keinem anderen Fach als im Fach Politikwissenschaft an der Eberhard-Karls Universität Tübingen ein Promotionsverfahren angestrengt zu haben oder mich in einem solchen zu befinden. --------------------------------- Tübingen, den 25. April 2004 Oliver Schlumberger Note on Translation and Transliteration Transliteration: The spelling of Arabic words follows closely the style of the International Journal of Middle East Studies, publication of the Middle East Studies Association (MESA) of North America.
Publié le : samedi 1 janvier 2005
Lecture(s) : 32
Source : W210.UB.UNI-TUEBINGEN.DE/DBT/VOLLTEXTE/2005/1947/PDF/COMPLETE.PDF
Nombre de pages : 342
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EBERHARD-KARLS UNIVERSITÄT TÜBINGEN

INSTITUT FÜR POLITIKWISSENSCHAFT












PATRIMONIAL CAPITALISM
___________________________________________________

Economic Reform and Economic Order
in the Arab World









Inauguraldissertation

zur Erlangung des Grades eines
Doktors der Politikwissenschaft

vorgelegt von
Oliver Schlumberger, M.A.




Gutachter:

Prof. Dr. Peter Pawelka
Prof. Andreas Boeckh, Ph.D.



Tübingen, den 26.04.2004




Urheberschafts-Erklärung





Hiermit erkläre und bestätige ich, vorliegende Arbeit selbst- und eigenständig und ohne
andere als die angegebenen Hilfsmittel verfasst zu haben.








---------------------------------
Tübingen, den 25. April 2004 Oliver Schlumberger








Promotions-Erklärung





Hiermit erkläre und bestätige ich, an keiner anderen Hochschule und in keinem anderen Fach
als im Fach Politikwissenschaft an der Eberhard-Karls Universität Tübingen ein
Promotionsverfahren angestrengt zu haben oder mich in einem solchen zu befinden.






---------------------------------
Tübingen, den 25. April 2004 Oliver Schlumberger





Note on
Translation and Transliteration





Transliteration:

The spelling of Arabic words follows closely the style of the International Journal of Middle
East Studies, publication of the Middle East Studies Association (MESA) of North America.
Deviations were allowed for in the case of proper names whose bearers spell
themselves differently (e.g., on business cards or in publications) and in the case of Company
Names or commonly known nomina loci such as ‘Cairo’ (instead of ‘al-Qahira’).



Translations:

Quotations from Texts written in languages other than English have been translated by the
author into English in order to facilitate reading – except when an authorized translation was
at hand or existed. Specific or crucial terms remain, in some instances, in their original
language in case this helps in understanding. However, the translation is then given in
brackets. Table of Contents







List of Abbreviations................................................................................................................... iv
List of Tables and Figures....................... vi

Who Should Read What?............................................................................................................. 0.0

Introduction: What is this Book About?..................................................................... 0.1
The Context: What and Why?.............................................................................. 0.1
The Puzzle.............................................................................. 0.2 Implications......................................................... 0.4
Methodological Background: How Can Answers Be Found?................. 0.5 Results.......................................................................................................................


Part I Analytical Frame

Chapter 1: Where We Are, and Where to Go:
The Study of Economic Reform in the Arab World……………………. 1
Economic Literature........................................................................................................ 3
Political Science and Political Economy Approaches........... 8
‘Grey’ Literature, Statistics, Reports............................................................................... 11
Aims................................................................ 12

Chapter 2: Concepts and Interconnectedness: An Interdisciplinary Approach........... 14
The Historical Context: From Neoclassical Economics to New Political Economy....... 15
Institutional Economics: Origins and Merits.................................................................. 20
Institutional Economics Revisited: Conceptual Flaws.......... 25
Political Science and Political Sociology Approaches.................................................... 28
Method and Scope: Three Types of Questions....................... 47
Conclusion: Some Hypotheses.......................................................................................... 52

Chapter 3: On Economic Systems: Capitalism, Market Economy,
and Other Terms of Uncertain Meaning................................................... 57
Capitalism...................................................................................................... 59
Market Economies......................................... 62
Centrally Planned or Controlled Economies................................................. 66
Rentier Economies................................................................................... 68







i



Part II The Political Logic of Economic Reform in the Arab World:
Empirical Ilustrations

Chapter 4: Selecting Cases, the Time Frame, and Issue Areas.................................. 76
Empirical Observations: Illustrative Evidence, Not Proofs............................................ 76
Selecting Cases................................................................................................................. 80
Selecting Issue Areas.................... 85

Chapter 5: Some General Features of
Economic Crisis and Reform in the Arab World..................................... 90

Chapter 6: ‘Pure Patrimonialism’: The Case of Egypt................................................ 97
Private Sector Development and the Investment Policies................................................. 100
Banking and Finance................................................................................. 112
Public Sector Reform and Privatization.......................................................... 122
Additional Illustrations from the External Sector................................................. 129
Conclusion........................................................................................... 130

Chapter 7: Benevolent Autocrats: Jordan.................................................................... 132
Modest Development Prospects, Possible Explanations.................................................... 132
Private Sector Development and the Investment Climate...................................... 139
Public Sector Reform and Privatization............................................................................ 144
Banking and Finance............................................................... 150

Chapter 8: A Case for Kafka, or: ‘Le Pouvoir’ in Algeria......................................... 159
Public Sector Reform and Privatization.......................................................................... 164
Private Sector Development and the Investment Climate.................................... 172
Banking............................................................................................................................ 182
Conclusion................................... 188

Chapter 9: ‘Sultans of Swing’ or: Still a Rentier. The United Arab Emirates............ 193
Evolution and Current Structure of the Economy............................................................. 193
Fiscal Structures..................................................................... 197
Development of the Non-Oil Economy: Limited Diversification...................................... 199
Future Rivals? Dubai and Abu Dhabi ...................................................... 205
Conclusion............................................................................... 214

Chapter 10: Differences and Similarities of Economic Reform Processes
in the Arab World..................................................................................... 218
Differences and Similarities............................................................................................. 219
Winners and Losers of Structural Adjustment........................ 225





ii


Part III Reflections on Patrimonial Capitalism

Chapter 11: Patrimonial Capitalism: An Economic Order........................................... 234
Delineating Patrimonial Capitalism................................................................................. 234
Why ‘Patrimonial’ Capitalism?............................................................................ 237
Patrimonial Capitalism and Political Regimes................................... 239
A Remaining Conceptual Problem........................................................................ 241

Chapter 12: Patrimonial Capitalism and Systemic Economic Transition:
Beyond the Arab World............................................................................ 245
Looking Around: A First Glance....................................................................................... 245
Lack of Analytical Categories................................................. 253


Chapter 13: Patrimonial Capitalism and Development................................................. 256
Do Market Economies Just Need More Time to Emerge?................................................ 259
Re-Directing Economic Reform................................................................ 260
What Can Be Done? Reflecting on Policy Recommendations.......................................... 264
A Two-Pronged Approach.................................................................................... 267

Chapter 14: Tentative Conclusions:
Patrimonial Capitalism, Economic Order, and Globalization................... 277


Epilogue on Method and Policy.........................:............................................................ 283

Bibliography...................................................................................................................... i

iiiList of Abbreviations

ADMA-OPCO Abu Dhabi Maritime Oil Operations Company
ADNOC Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
ADSE Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange
ADWEA Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority
AD Algerian Dinar
AED Arab Emirates Dirham
AFM Amman Financial Market
AMF Arab Monetary Fund (Abu Dhabi)
API llocative Power Index
APSI Agence pour la Promotion, le Soutien et le Suivi des Investissements (Private Sector
Investment Office, Algeria, in 2001 renamed ANDI [= Agence nationale de
Développement des Investissements)
ARE Arab Republic of Egypt
ASEZ(A) Aqaba Special Economic Zone (Authority); (Jordan)
b/d barrel per day (1 barrel = ca. 159 litres)
B(O)O(T) build, (own), operate, (transfer) (= scheme for attraction of private investment)
CAPMAS Central Authority for Public Mobilization and Statistics (Egypt)
CBJ Central Bank of Jordan
CEDEJ Centre d’Etudes et de Documentation Economique et Juridique, (French Research
Center in Cairo)
CERMOC Centre d’Etudes et de Recherche sur le Moyen Orient Contemporain,
(French Research Centers in Beirut & Amman)
CMA Capital Markets Authority (Egypt)
CNEP Caisse nationale d’épargne et de prévoyance (National Savings and Housing Bank,
Algeria)
CNES Conseil National Economique et Social (semi-independent research centre and
government-advising think-tank in Algeria)
CPI Consumer Price Index
CSS Center ofStrategic Studies (at the University of Jordan in Amman)
DFM Dubai Financial Market
DUBAL DubaAluminum Company (world’s second largest smelter)
ECC Economic Consultative Council (Jordan)
ECES Egyptian Center of Economic Studies (semi-dependent think-tank in Cairo)
EFF Extended Fund Facility (type of IMF credit)
EIA US Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration
EIB European Investment Bank
EIU The Economist Intelligence Unit (London)
EPE Entreprises publiques économiques (larger public enterprises in Algeria)
EPL Entreprises publiques locales économiques (smaller public enterprises in Algeria)
ERF Economic Research Forum for the Arab Countries, Iran and Turkey (internationally
and nationally supported, semi-independent research center and think-tank in Cairo)
EU European Union
FCE Forum desChefs d’Entreprises (Algerian business association founded in 2000).
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FIS Front Islamique du Salut (Islamic Salvation Front)
ivGAFI General Authority For Investment (Egypt)
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GIA upe Islamique Armé (Algeria)
GNP ss National Product
GTZ Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit
HDI /-R Human Development Index / - Report
HKJ Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
IMF International Monetary Fund
ISI Import Substitutionalizing Industrialization
JD Jordanian Dinar
JEDCO Jordan Export Development Corporation (public sector entity)
JIB Jordan Investment Board (formerly known as the Investment Promotion Corporation)
LE Egyptian Pound
MEED Middle East Economic Digest
MEFT Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade (until 2001 in Egypt)
MoF Ministry ofFinance
MoP Ministryof Planning
NAFTAL Entreprise Nationale de Commercialisation et de Distribution de Produits Pétroliers
(Algeria)
NAFTEC Entreprise Nationale de Raffinage des Produits Pétroliers (Algeria)
NBE National Bank of Egypt
NDP National Democratic Party (ruling party in Egypt)
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
NIE New Institutional Economics
NIS Newly Independent States (former members of the Soviet Union)
NPE w Political Economy
OAPEC Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
PCSU Privatization Cooperation Support Unit (Egypt; subcontractor of USAID in charge of
monitoring Egypt’s privatization program)
PEO Public Enterprise Office (Egypt)
QIZ Qualifying Industrial Zone (in Jordan; special economic zone where cooperation with
Israeli firms is advocated; products gain duty- and quota-free access to the US market)
RADP République Algérienne Démocratique et Populaire
REACH-Initiative Initiative by Jordanian IT-entrepreneurs
SFD Social Fund for Development (Egypt)
SOE State-Owned Enterprise
SONATRACH Société Nationale pour le Transport et l a Commercialisation des Hydrocarbures
(Algeria)
SONELGAZ Société Nationale d’Electricité et de Gaz (Algeria)
UAE United Arab Emirates
UGTA Union Générale des Travailleurs d’Algérie (Algeria’s Trade Union Federation)
UNDP ited Nations Development Programme
UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization
UJRC Urdun Jadid Research Center (New Jordan Research Center, Amman)
USAID United States Agency for International Development
WTO World Trade Organization
vList of Tables and Figures


Tables:

5.2 Successful Macroeconomic Stabilization 95


6.0 EGT Egypt’s GDP, by Sector 99
6.1 Public and Private Shares in Egypt’s GDP, 1991–2002 100
6.2 EGT Net FDI-Inflows to Egypt, 1990 – 2001 110
6.3 EGT State Ownership in Joint Venture Banks, 2001 116
6.4 EGT Bank Lending and Discount Balances 118
to Public and Private Sectors, 1995 – 2001
6.5 EGT Privatization Receipts in Egypt 124
6.6 Remaining Law 203 Portfolio, 2000 125
6.7 EGT Trade Performance and Openness, 1990 – 2000 127
6.8 EGT formance and Openness, 1990 – 2000 129


7.1 JOR Structural Adjustment: Ambiguous Results 134
7.2 JOR Approved Investment Projects, 1996 – 2000 140


8.1 ALG Algeria’s Hydrocarbons Revenues, by Sort (2000) 160
8.2 ALG Algeria’s GDP by Sector, 1995-2000 162
8.3 ALG Production and Consumption, Public and Private (1989) 166
8.4 ALG Production and Consumption, Public and Private (1999) 167
8.5 ALG Private Investment Projects, 1993-2000 174
8.6 ALG Net FDI Inflows to Algeria, 1990-2000 181


9.1 UAE GDP by Sector, 1980 – 2000 194
9.2 UAE by Emirate 1996 1999 195
9.3 UAE Government Revenues, 1992 – 2000 196
9.4 UAE UAE Federal and Consolidated Budgets, 1999 – 2000 198
9.5 UAE Economic Structures: Abu Dhabi vs. Dubai 206







viFigures:
0.1 Procedure of Analysis: Structural Economic Change
in the Arab World, 1980s – 2000s 0.12

2.1 Concepts Advanced by Political Science and Sociology 43
2.2 An Interdisciplinary Approach for the Analysis of
Economic Policy Reform 50

3.1 Types of Economic Orders 73

4.1 Typology of Arab States, ca. 1970 – 1990 84

6.1 Structure of the Egyptian Banking System, 2002 115

8.1 Public Sector Structure and Privatization Results 169

13.1 Economic Transition and Development Prospects 258
vii

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