AIE : les prix du pétrole vont remonter en 2017

Aie

Description

Pour la première fois en trente ans, les investissements chutent deux années de suite: de 24% en 2015 et de 17% en 2016.

Informations

• Publié par: Fil_Economie
• Publié le: 22 février 2016
• Nombre de lectures: 5 456
• Langue: Français

Extrait

Latest Oil Market Update

Riyadh 16 February 2016

© OECD/IEA - 2015

© OECD/IEA - 2015

Market to tighten in 2H16

Demand/Supply Balance until 4Q16* mb/d mb/d *OPEC crude production assumed at 32.7mb/d from 98 3.5 February 2016 onwards 96 2.5 94 1.5 92 0.5 90 0.5 88 1.5 86 84 2.5 1Q09 3Q10 1Q12 3Q13 1Q15 3Q16 Impl. stock ch.&misc (RHS) Demand Supply*

© OECD/IEA - 2015

Non-OPEC supply growth shrinking fast

mb/d Total NonOPEC Supply, yoy Change 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 Other North America Total

 Coming off record 2.7 mb/d growth in 4Q14, non-OPEC production seen contracting by end-15  Net decline of 0.6 mb/d projected for 2016

© OECD/IEA - 2015

OECD industry stocks continue to build in December

mb 3,100

3,000

2,900

2,800

2,700

2,600

OECD Total Oil Stocks

2,500 Jan Mar May Jul Range 20102014 2014

Sep Nov Jan Avg 20102014 2015

© OECD/IEA - 2015

• •

97

96

95

94

93

92

Market tightening in 2016, slowly

2014

Global oil supply/demand (mbd) Demand MTOMR 2015

2015

2016

2017

2018

Demand OMR Dec. 2015

Supply OMR Dec. 2015

Demand OMR Feb. 2016

Supply OMR Feb. 2016

After December OMR, 2016 demand revised down 200 kbd Estimated 2016 supply revised up 100 kbd