The Weekly Bottom Line
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The Weekly Bottom Line

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The Weekly Bottom Line
TD Economics
www.td.com/economics
May 6, 2011
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
Fears of a slowing U.S. recovery and rising worldwide infl ation hurt market sentiment early this week, triggering a
fl ight from risk sell off that sent commodity prices and equities tumbling down sharply.
Today, a positive surprise in U.S. employment numbers veered equity markets in the opposite direction; at the time
of writing both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 were up 0.9% on the day, and WTI crude oil had recouped 1.1%.
Signifi cant upward revisions to February and March fi gures contributed to bring the 3-month moving average to 233K
new jobs per month, which suggests an incipient fi rming in hiring conditions.
Canada
• The Federal Conservative Party fi nally secured a majority government in Monday’s election. They plan to pass the
budget they tabled back in March. This was a non-event for markets, as the budget details have already been baked
into the economic outlook.
• Commodities took a major hit this week, with the WTI price of oil moving below $100 per barrel.
• While the Canadian dollar fell in lockstep with the price of oil, stronger-than-expected employment reports in the U.S.
and Canada provided some support to the loonie, keeping it at a still lofty $1.04 U.S. by week’s end. The Canadian
economy added a sizeable 58,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.6%.
Current*
Week
Ago
52-Week
High
52-Week
Low
Stock Market Indexes
S&P 500
1,352
1,364
1,364
1,023
S&P/TSX Comp.
13,550
13,945
14,271
11,093
DAX
7,477
7,514
7,528
5,670
FTSE 100
5,951
6,070
6,091
4,806
Nikkei
9,859
9,850
10,858
8,605
Fixed Income Yields
U.S. 10-yr Treasury
3.22
3.29
3.74
2.38
Canada 10-yr Bond
3.24
3.21
3.60
2.69
Germany 10-yr Bund
3.20
3.24
3.49
2.12
UK 10-yr Gilt
3.40
3.43
3.92
2.83
Japan 10-yr Bond
1.15
1.21
1.36
0.85
Foreign Exchange Cross Rates
C$ (USD per CAD)
1.04
1.06
1.06
0.93
Euro (USD per EUR)
1.45
1.48
1.48
1.19
Pound (USD per GBP)
1.64
1.67
1.67
1.43
Yen (JPY per USD)
80.6
81.2
93.3
78.9
Commodity Spot Prices**
Crude Oil ($US/bbl)
99.7
113.9
113.9
66.0
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu)
4.51
4.50
5.17
3.18
Copper ($US/met. tonne)
8793.8
9296.0
10179.5
6067.8
Gold ($US/troy oz.)
1492.0
1563.7
1563.7
1161.6
THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS
*as of 10:00 am on Friday, **Oil-WTI, Cushing, Nat. Gas-Henry Hub,
LA (Thursday close price), Copper-LME Grade A, Gold-London Gold
Bullion; Source: Bloomberg
Federal Reserve (Fed Funds Rate)
Bank of Canada (Overnight Rate)
European Central Bank (Refi Rate)
Bank of England (Repo Rate)
Bank of Japan (Overnight Rate)
Source: Central Banks, Haver Analytics
0.00%
0.50%
0 - 0.25%
1.00%
1.25%
GLOBAL OFFICIAL POLICY RATE TARGETS
Current Target
WEEKLY GAINS vs U.S. DOLLAR
-2.64
-2.21
-2.11
-2.07
-2
-1.84
-1.06
-1
1.06
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Euro
Australian dollar
Canadian dollar
N. Zealand dollar
Brazilian real
British pound
Swiss franc
Mexican peso
Japanese yen
Source: Bloomberg
%
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