évaluations de peace

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• Publié par: rachid.elaidi
• Publié le: 18 juin 2015
• Nombre de lectures: 1
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 7 Mo

Extrait

Quantifying Peace and its Benefits
The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is an independent, non-partisan, non-proft
think tank dedicated to shifting the world’s focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and
tangible measure of human well-being and progress.
IEP achieves its goals by developing new conceptual frameworks to defne peacefulness;
providing metrics for measuring peace; and uncovering the relationships between
business, peace and prosperity as well as promoting a better understanding of the
cultural, economic and political factors that create peace.
IEP has offces in Sydney, New York and Mexico City. It works with a wide range of partners
internationally and collaborates with intergovernmental organizations on measuring and
communicating the economic value of peace.
For more information visit www.economicsandpeace.orgCONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
1 RESULTS AND FINDINGS 5
Highlights
2015 Global Peace Index rankings 8
Regional overview 10
Risers and fallers 16
GPI domain and indicator: Annual changes 20
Trends in the Global Peace Index domains 22
Ongoing domestic and international confict 23
Societal safety and security 29
Militarisation 35
2 TRENDS IN PEACE 43
Highlights 45
Eight-year trends46
Indicator trends49
Regional trends55
Global distribution of peace 59
3 GLOBAL ECONOMIC VALUE OF PEACE 63
Highlights65
Conceptual overview and methodology 68
Global violence containment: Results and trends 72
Trends in global violence containment expenditure 74
Countries with the highest cost of violence containment as a per cent of GDP 77 t cost of violence containment expenditure 78
4 POSITIVE PEACE 79
Why Positive Peace is transformational 81
Defning and measuring Positive Peace 82
Positive Peace and resistance movements 91
Positive Peace and the close link to other development goals 94
Five post-confict countries with largest Positive Peace improvements 97
ANNEXES 99
Annex A: GPI methodology 100
Annex B: GPI indicator sources, defnitions and scoring criteria 103
Annex C: Violence containment costs by country 112
Annex D: 2015 GPI Domain Scores 114
REFERENCES 117
END NOTES 120EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
This is the ninth edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks the
nations of the world according to their level of peacefulness. The index is
composed of 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected
sources and ranks 162 independent states, covering 99.6 per cent of the
world’s population. The index gauges global peace using three broad themes:
the level of safety and security in society, the extent of domestic and
international conflict and the degree of militarisation.
In addition to presenting the fndings from the 2015 GPI and MENA now ranks as the most violent region, overtaking South
its eight-year trend analysis, this year’s report provides an Asia from last year’s GPI. Yet again, Europe maintained its
updated methodology to account for the economic impact of position as the most peaceful region in the world, supported
violence on the global economy. The report also contains a new by a lack of domestic and external conficts. It was also the
region that experienced the largest improvement in its score analysis on Positive Peace and describes its relationship to
compared with 2014, continuing its eight-year trend of development and other signifcant and positive societal
improving peacefulness.outcomes. A detailed thematic analysis of the three
aforementioned domains of the GPI is also included.
This year Guinea-Bissau had the largest improvement in peace,
resulting in a rise of 24 places in the rankings to 120th. The next Last year the global GPI score remained stable. However,
four largest improvements occurred in Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, while the average level of global peacefulness was stable, a
Tajikistan and Benin. A common theme among the largest number of indicators and countries did deteriorate while
improvers was a fall in the level of organised confict, which others improved. Four out of the nine geographical regions
occurred in all of the four aforementioned African nations. experienced an improvement in peace: Europe, North America,
sub-Saharan Africa and Central America and the Caribbean. Cancelling out its strong improvement in the 2014 edition of
The other fve regions became less peaceful. The most the GPI, Libya experienced the largest deterioration this year.
substantial changes in the Index occurred in the Middle East Its score deteriorated substantially and consequently it fell 13
and North Africa (MENA) where several countries suffered places down to 149th to become the 14th least peaceful country.
from an upsurge in violence related to sectarian strife and civil Unsurprisingly the second biggest decline was recorded for the
conficts, resulting in the region being ranked as the least Ukraine, due to the confict between Russian separatists and
peaceful in the world. the Ukrainian government as well as the instability caused by
Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Other countries that The societal safety and security domain improved slightly last
substantially deteriorated were Djibouti and Niger which fell year, driven by falls in the homicide rate and the likelihood of
42 and 28 places, respectively. violent demonstrations. The improvements in homicide rates
mainly refected data updates in some high homicide countries. Over the past eight years the average country score
This improvement was counterbalanced by deteriorations in deteriorated 2.4 percent, highlighting that on average the world
the ongoing confict and militarisation domains, owing to has become slightly less peaceful. However, this decrease in
increases in deaths from internal confict, non-payment of UN peacefulness has not been evenly spread, with 86 counties
peacekeeping dues, and a continuing deterioration in the deteriorating while 76 improved. MENA has suffered the largest
impact of terrorism indicator. decline of any region in the world, deteriorating 11 per cent over
the past eight years.
Iceland is the most peaceful country, with the ten highest
ranking nations in the GPI all being stable democracies. Nordic The eight-year downward trend in peacefulness has been driven
and Alpine countries are particularly well represented. predominately by the deterioration in indicators of internal
Asia-Pacifc is also represented at the top, with New Zealand peacefulness. Of the fve key indicators which deteriorated by
ranked 4th, Japan at 8th and Australia at 9th. more than fve per cent, four are internal and one external:
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX 2015 2refugees and IDPs as a percentage of the population, deaths
from internal confict, the impact of terrorism, the likelihood
of violent demonstrations and perceptions of criminality.
The deterioration in the indicators measuring the number of
refugees and IDPs and the impact of terrorism is most
concerning. The latest UNHCR estimates indicate that more
than 50 million people are now either refugees or internally
displaced because of confict and violence, which is the highest
number since the end of the Second World War. A third of
people displaced by confict inside their own countries in 2014
are in Iraq and Syria alone.
Terrorism has grown steadily over the last decade, a trend that
shows no sign of abating. Deaths caused by terrorism increased only accounts for less than 0.17 per cent of violence
by 61 per cent in 2013, which resulted in almost 18,000 people containment expenditure.
being killed in terrorist attacks. Of those deaths, 82 per cent
The report outlines new fndings on Positive Peace, occurred in just fve countries: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
highlighting its impact on peace, development and other
Nigeria and Syria. The threat of terrorism has also affected many
important societal goals. In societies where Positive Peace is of the world’s most peaceful countries, with terrorist attacks
stronger, developmental goals are more likely to be achieved. occurring in France, Denmark and Australia in the last year.
These societies are more resilient when faced with crisis and
On the positive side, several indicators of external peacefulness have fewer grievances. They are more likely to achieve
actually improved over the last eight years. Relations with non-violent positive outcomes when faced with resistance
neighbouring countries has grown stronger, particularly in movements and are more likely to adapt and make concessions
South America, fnancial contributions to UN peacekeeping to reconcile grievances. Additionally, Positive Peace is also
funding has improved and the number and intensity of external statistically associated with many other outcomes considered
conficts has fallen as many countries wound down their desirable: stronger business environments, better performance
military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. on well-being measures, gender equality and better
performance on ecological measures. It is important to note that peace is becoming more unevenly
distributed. While Europe continued its long-term trend of The report also includes a thematic analysis of the three domains
improvement, the Middle East continued its recent trend of of the GPI:
deterioration, further increasing the distance betw