IDSS COMMENTARIES

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• Publié par: ycyzadom
• Nombre de lectures: 59
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IDSS COMMENTARIES (3/2006) DSS Commentaries are intended to provide timely and, where appropriate, polic relevant background and analysis of contemporary developments.The views of the authors are their own and do not represent the official position of IDSS. ___________________________________________________________________________ Global Terrorism Threat in 2006 * Rohan Gunaratna 9 January 2006 Highlights in 2006: •Most nations will recognise terrorism as their tier-one security threat; •Iraq will emerge as the international epicentre for the production of global terrorism; •In Afghanistan, the terrorist threat will grow; •Parallel to Al Qaeda, the Iraq-based Zarkawi will build a global network; •Rifts over strategy will develop within the global jihad movement. The Context: Three profound developments characterise the contemporary threat landscape. First, the singular threat posed by Al Qaeda will be surpassed by a larger threat posed by the global jihad movement. A conglomerate of four-dozen groups, linked ideologically, will wage both local and global jihad campaigns worldwide. Second, Iraq has replaced Afghanistan as the epicentre of jihad. Like Afghanistan produced the last generation of fighters, the insurgency in Iraq is producing and catalysing a new generation of urban and suicidal terrorists and guerrillas. Third, the increasing porosity of the borders between the threat groups has led to greater cooperation between them. Greater exchange of ideas, technology, and personnel between the groups has increased the scale and magnitude of threat. Assessment: As the terrorist threat globalises, most governments will recognise terrorism as the tier–one national security threat. Despite enhanced government investment to combat terrorism, the year 2006 will witness the spread of terrorism with increasing frequency and lethality. With an escalation in attacks in Iraq and the renewal of violence in Afghanistan, the threat of politically-motivated violence will grow both in the Middle East and Asia. The primary threat to North America, Europe and Australasia will be from the continuing radicalisation of the émigré pockets.

Although Al Qaeda, the most hunted terrorist group in history, will decline in power, strength and size, the threat posed by the global jihad movement will grow. The intermitted successes by governments against terrorist cells planning and preparing attacks will be overshadowed by the tempo of the insurgency in Iraq. The momentum of attacks in Iraq will influence Jihadi

__________________________________________________________________________ Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, NTU, South Spine, Block S4, Level B4, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798. Tel.No. 67906982, Email:[e-mail], Website:www.idss.edu.sg.