Global transport scenarios 2050. : rapport

Conseil Mondial De L'Energie

Description

Au cours des quatre prochaines décennies, le transport mondial sera confronté à des défis sans précédent liés à la démographie, l'urbanisation, la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre dans les villes, la congestion de trafic, l'augmentation de la demande de carburant.
A la lumière de ces défis et des niveaux d'incertitudes, ce rapport propose des scénarios de transport à l'horizon 2050.
Londres. http://temis.documentation.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/document.xsp?id=Temis-0075553

Sujets

• Transport
• Population
• Santé
• Scénario

Informations

• Publié par: temis-developpement-durable
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2011
• Nombre de lectures: 47
• Licence : En savoir +
  Paternité, pas d'utilisation commerciale, partage des conditions initiales à l'identique
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Global Transport
Scenarios 2050
World Energy Council

Project Partners
IBM Corporation
Paul Scherrer Institute



Global Transport
Scenarios 2050
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 Officers of the World Energy Council
World Energy Council
Pierre Gadonneix

Chair
Copyright © 2011 World Energy Council
Abubakar Sambo
Vice Chair, Africa
All rights reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or
Liu Tie’nan reproduced as long as the following citation is included on each
Vice Chair, Asia copy or transmission: ‘Used by permission of the World Energy
Council, London, www.worldenergy.org’
Arup Roy Choudhury
Published 2011 by: Vice Chair, Asia Pacific & South Asia
World Energy Council Johannes Teyssen
Regency House 1-4 Warwick Street Vice Chair, Europe
London W1B 5LT United Kingdom
José Antonio Vargas Lleras
Vice Chair, Latin America/Caribbean ISBN: 978-0-946121-14-4
Abbas Ali Naqi
Vice Chair, Special Responsibility for Middle East &

Gulf States
Kevin Meyers
Vice Chair, North America
Heon Cheol Shin
Vice Chair, Daegu Congress 2013
Marie-José Nadeau
Chair, Communications & Outreach Committee
Graham Ward, CBE
Chair, Finance Committee
Michael Morris
Chair, Programme Committee
Brian Statham
Chair, Studies Committee
Christoph Frei
Secretary General Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
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Knowledge
Network Members
Walter Böhme, Austria Alexandru Sandulescu, Romania
Pietro Erber, Brazil Ionut Purica, Romania
Renata Szczerbacki, Brazil Alison von Ketelhodt, South Africa
Lyudmil Kostadinov, Bulgaria Heloise Nel, South Africa
Terry Kimmel, Canada Jaime Gutiérrez, Spain
Karim Kassam, Canada Almudena Rosas, Spain
Lesme Corredor Martinez, Colombia Gunnar Bengtsson, Sweden
José Maboya Nzalingo, Congo (DR) Jochen Kreusel, Switzerland
Hans Larsen, Denmark Abdelhamid Khalfallah, Tunisia
Georges Bouchard, France Sarper Saragöglu, Turkey
Igor Czerny, France Martin Haigh, United Kingdom
Alain Le Duigou France Helen El-Mallakh, United States
Pierre Sigonney, France
Alain Bucaille, France Project Partner – Paul Scherrer Institute
Jean Eudes Moncomble , France
Simon Vinot, France Philipp Dietrich, Switzerland
Enno Harks, Germany Hal Turton, Switzerland
Matthias Kirner, Germany Martin Densing, Switzerland
Kerstin Mayr, Germany
Alexander Stöhr , Germany
Project Partner – IBM Corporation Christian Hahn, Germany
Ved Mitra, India
Irina Bychkova, United Kingdom Anil Bakshi, India
Clay Luthy, United States Philip Thomas, India
Sundar Iyer, United Kingdom Prakash Sharma, India
Steve Edwards, United Kingdom Antonio De Bellis, Italy
Michael Valocchi, United States Davide Moroni, Italy
Andrea Zara, Italy
Federico Caleno, Italy Project Team
Kaoru Horie, Japan
Christoph Frei, WEC, Secretary General Junhaeng Jo, Korea (Republic)
Karl Rose, WEC, Director Policy and Scenarios Rodolfo Lacy, Mexico
Ayed Al-Qahtani, WEC, Senior Project Manager Pinehas Mutota , Namibia
Brian Statham, South Africa Barry Blackett, New Zealand
Suduk Kim, Korea (Republic) Eli Bala, Nigeria
Mohammed Bello, Nigeria
Gabriela Prata Dias, Portugal
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
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Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
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Content
Content 3 4.2 Cooperation-Integration 29
5. Transport Scenarios 31 Executive Summary 4
5.1 Freeway 31 1. Introduction 7
5.2 Tollway 32 1.1 Background 7
6. Regional Considerations 34 1.2 Study Goals 7
6.1 Africa and the Middle East 34 1.3 Study Approach 8
6.2 Asia 36 2. Overview of Global Transport Sector 9
6.3 Europe and Russia 41 3. Driving Forces 12
6.4 North America 43 3.1 Economic Growth 12
6.5 Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) 46 3.2 Demographic Trends 13
7. Modelling and Quantification 49 3.3 Urbanization and Megacities 15
7.1 Model Overview 49 3.4 Geopolitics 17
7.2 Modelling Results 53 3.5 Global Oil Reserve and Supply 18
7.3 Results for Freeway 53 3.6 Environmental and Health Concerns 19
7.4 Results for Tollway 56 3.7 Policies and Regulations 19
7.5 Scenario Comparisons on a 3.8 Lifestyle Changes 21
Global Level 60
3.9 Alternative Fuels 22
8. Conclusions 65
3.10 Fuel Efficiencies 25
Glossary 68
3.11 Innovations 26
Figures and Tables 69
3.12 Summary 28
Appendices 71
4. Critical Uncertainties 29
4.1 Government Regulation 29
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
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Executive Summary
Over the next four decades, the global transportation Now is the time for strong leadership at both
sector will face unprecedented challenges related government and enterprise levels if the transport
to demographics, urbanization, pressure to sector is to make a positive contribution towards
minimize and dislocate emissions outside urban the well-being of future generations.
centres, congestion of aging transport
Regional inputs on transport policies, existing and infrastructure and growth in fuel demand. These
potential developments in both fuels and challenges will all be compounded by uncertainties
technologies, in addition to major driving forces and emerging from government intervention and
critical uncertainties were all examined and regulation. Regional and global cooperation,
combined into two distinct transport scenarios unstable global economic situations, and potential
“Freeway” and “Tollway.” The main difference technological breakthroughs will all have a
between these two scenarios is the degree and significant impact. In light of these challenges and
style of government intervention in regulating future the levels of uncertainty, the World Energy Council
transport markets. (WEC) decided to re-examine the future of the
transport and mobility sector by building Global
 The “Freeway” scenario envisages a world Transport Scenarios to 2050. These scenarios will
where pure market forces prevail to create a describe potential developments in transport fuels,
climate for open global competition. technologies, and mobility systems over the course
of the next forty years. Undoubtedly, the evolution
 The “Tollway” scenario describes a more of the transport world between 2010 and 2050 will
regulated world where governments decide to offer many challenges, the biggest of which is
intervene in markets to promote technology providing sustainable transport for the seven to
solutions and infrastructure development that nine billion people at the lowest social cost
put common interests at the forefront. possible. These scenarios show that government
policies will play a critical role in determining the
The Freeway and Tollway scenarios describe the most likely pathway into the future.
extreme ends of the potential futures envelope.
The reality will inevitably be between these two The World Energy Council believes that
scenarios with regional differences playing a major constructive dialogue between national and local
role. policy makers, manufacturers, consumers and
producers will be essential if we are to meet these
In quantifying these two scenarios, we noted that challenges. Only with discovery, promotion and
by 2050: development of new energy resources, matched to
innovation and improvements in current
 Total fuel demand in all transport modes will technologies, catalysed by optimally formulated
increase by 30% (Tollway) to 82% (Freeway) policies can we hope to ensure a more sustainable
above the 2010 levels. The growth in fuel transport future for current and future generations.
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
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demand will be driven mainly by trucks,  The total number of cars in the world is also
buses, trains, ships, and airplanes. expected to increase 2.2 times (Tollway) to
2.6 times (Freeway), mainly in the developing
 Transport sector fuel mix will still depend world, where the number of cars will increase
heavily on gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and jet by 430% (Tollway) to 557% (Freeway) while
fuel, as they all will still constitute the bulk of the developed countries will see an increase
transport market fuels with 80% (Tollway) to of only 36% (Tollway) to 41% (Freeway).
88% (Freeway) in 2050.
 At the end of the scenario period (2050) we
expect conventional gasoline and diesel  Demand for these major fuels will increase
internal combustion engines (ICEs) to have a by 10% (Tollway) to 68% (Freeway) over the
market share between 26% (Tollway) and scenario period.
78% (Freeway). Other drive-train technologies
will make up the rest with liquid hybrid, plug- Demand for diesel and fuel oil will grow by
ins, and electric vehicles leading in Tollway, 46% (Tollway) to 200% (Freeway).
while liquid hybrids, plug-ins and gas vehicles
 Demand for jet fuel will grow by 200% lead in Freeway.
(Tollway) to 300% (Freeway).
The scenarios also show significant r