Low-Carbon Development

Augusto De La Torre

Description

This book, the companion volume to 'Low Carbon, High Growth: Latin American Responses to Climate Change', examines some of the major threats posed by climate change to the region's economies, societies, and biodiversity. It describes the patterns of greenhouse gas emissions in the Latin America and Caribbean region and in specific countries, finding that the future trajectory could be increases in emissions relative to other regions. 'Low-Carbon Development' explains why it is in the region's best interest to participate actively in global efforts to reduce emissions and what type of global climate change architecture could allow the countries to make their most effective contributions. Finally, the book lays out an agenda for domestic policies and investments to help the countries adapt to climate change while reducing their emissions profiles. It will be useful to policy makers, civil society organizations, and researchers working in climate change.

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 06 octobre 2009
• Nombre de lectures: 15
• EAN13: 9780821380819
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 6 Mo

Extrait

WORLD BANK LATIN AMERICAN
AND CARIBBEAN STUDIES
Low-Carbon
Development
Latin American Responses
to Climate Change
Augusto de la Torre
Pablo Fajnzylber
John NashLOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT:
LATIN AMERICAN R ESPONSES
TO CLIMATE CHANGELOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT:
LATIN AMERICAN RESPONSES
TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Augusto de la Torre
Pablo Fajnzylber
John Nash© 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
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1 2 3 4 13 12 11 10
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings,
interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or
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ISBN: 978-0-8213-8054-3
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8081-9
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8054-3
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Low-carbon development : Latin American responses to climate change / Augusto de la Torre, Pablo Fajnzylber, and John Nash, editors.
p. cm. –– (World Bank Latin American and Caribbean studies)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8213-8054-3 –– ISBN 978-0-8213-8081-9 (electronic)
1. Energy policy––Latin America. 2. Carbon dioxide mitigation––Latin America. 3. Climatic changes––Latin America. I. Torre, Augusto de la.
II. Fajnzylber, Pablo. III. Nash, John.
HD9502.L32L69 2009
363.738'746098––dc22
2009035877
Cover design: Naylor Design.Contents
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
1. Confronting the Global Challenge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2. Climate Change Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3. Adapting to a Changing Climate in the Latin America and the Caribbean Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
4. Mitigation Efforts: Moving Beyond the First Generation of Emission Reductions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
5. Latin America and the Caribbean Region’s GHG Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
6. Climate Change Mitigation in the Latin America and the Caribbean Region: No Regrets and Beyond . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Appendix: Authors of Background Papers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
Boxes
3.1 Local Coping Strategies: Learning from Long Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
3.2 Efficiencies and Costs of Water Adaptation Strategies: The Case of Rio Bravo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
3.3 ENSO and the LCR: Use of Climate Predictions to Respond to Weather Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
3.4 The Insurance Role of Safety Nets: Experiences from Nicaragua and Honduras . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.5 Weather Insurance Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.6 Nonfacilitative Adaptation: In Some Areas, Direct Government Action Will Be Required. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.7 Coping with Drought in Northeast Brazil: The Role of Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
3.8 Monitoring Is the First Step in Designing Assistance for Ecosystems’ Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
3.9 Managing Ecosystems in the LCR: Ongoing Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.10 Bridging the Gap between Climate Change and Agricultural Technology: Embrapa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
3.11 Developing Response Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
3.12 Real Options Methodologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
3.13 Private and Public Agricultural Research for Climate Change: It Takes Time. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
3.14 The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
6.1 Supporting Policies Have Different Effects on Incentives, Investment Certainty, and Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
vCONTENTS
6.2 More Effective and Efficient Environmental Licensing Is Needed to Unleash the Region’s
Potential for Hydropower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
6.3 Unintended Consequences of Combining Biofuel Mandates with Tax Credits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
6.4 Conserving Electricity in Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
6.5 Energy Efficiency in Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
6.6 Examples of Transport and Land-Use Planning in Bogotá, Colombia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
6.7 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Mitigation Measures in Mexico’s Transport Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
6.8 Severe Soil Erosion Precipitates the Adoption of Zero Tillage in Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
6.9 Supporting Customized Solutions through the FCPF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
6.10 Paying to Protect Forests through ProÁrbol in Mexico. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
6.11 Conservation Banking to Reduce Deforestation and Protect Biodiversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Figures
1.1 Retreat of the Chacaltaya Glacier in Bolivia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.2 Sector Composition of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3 Actual versus Projected Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
1.4 Impact of Climate Change on the Frequency of Extreme Weather Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.5 Marginal Mitigation Cost and Avoided Damage (Benefit) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.6 Impact on Optimal Policies of Unexpected Changes in Marginal Mitigation Costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.7 McKinsey’s Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve Beyond Business-as-Usual, 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.8 Damage Costs of Different Levels of Global Warming . . . . . . .