Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast

Ernst & Young

Description

Dans notre rapport trimestriel, nous analysons l'état économique des 16 pays de l'Eurozone, les défis et les opportunités de la zone à l'heure de la reprise.Voir sur ey.com

Sujets

• Rapport
• 2011
• Prévision
• Zone euro
• Business
• Finances publiques

Informations

• Publié par: Ernst-And-Young
• Publié le: 01 avril 2011
• Nombre de lectures: 183
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

Ernst & Young
Eurozone Forecast
Spring edition
April 2011•
Foreword
Mark Otty
Area Managing Partner, Europe, Middle East, India and Africa
B ydefinitione v er yf or ecastisunc er t ain,andbusines sesha v elearned
t ot ak edecisionsunderunc er t aint y .Inthatsense ,w ear enotina
fundament allyne wen vir onmentwhenpr esentingthespring2011edition
o fourf or ecast.Ho w e v er ,Ibelie v ethattheunc er t aint yhasr eachedle v els
thatar eunpr ec edent edinm yo wne xperienc e .
I note that opinion on the Eurozone’s immediate We also continue to see a gap in the need to remember to offset possible monetary
outlook is sharply divided. Recent confidence performance between the south and the north policy mismatches with countercyclical fiscal
indicators have painted an almost euphoric — or between the core and the periphery — policy in order to avoid asset price bubbles
picture, with the Ifo business climate index in which is likely to be a source of future and their dire consequences.
Germany reaching an all-time high in February instability. Germany in particular is going
this year, while the European Commission’s through a strong economic recovery, helped We are continually following how the business
industrial confidence indicator suggests the by a competitive industrial sector, with community all over the world is responding to
Eurozone will experience a strong cyclical projected economic growth of 2.3% this the rapid changes in the markets. There is
recovery. The European Central Bank shares year. For the Eurozone average to be held an ongoing discussion with our clients on risk
this confidence in a robust recovery and has so significantly below the growth seen by assessments, business strategy, innovation
signaled a rise in interest rates to dampen Germany reflects some deeply negative and entrepreneurship, investment strategy
growing inflation concerns. performances in the periphery. Our forecast and how to build an operation that attracts
for Ireland suggests a contraction of 2.3% both good clients and the most talented people.
However, since we first issued the Ernst & Young this year, and for Greece of 4%. I also believe strongly in the work that we do
Eurozone Forecast, our perspective on the building bridges between governments and
Eurozone economy, has been, and continues One of the biggest challenges for European the business community. By offering thought
to be, different. We see an upturn of only governments is unemployment, particularly leadership and surveys that analyze
moderate strength. We stick to our main among young people — school and university governmental and macroeconomic trends,
forecast of a 1.5% growth in GDP this year, leavers. By 2015 we are forecasting the and how business leaders think about policy
unchanged from our last two forecasts, and level of unemployment to be well above decisions, we can create a basis for constructive
below last year’s actual growth rate of 1.7%. pre-crisis levels. This means around 14 million discussions leading to pragmatic decisions
The decline in growth rate has already people in Europe will be out of work. that stimulate growth, inside and outside
commenced in the fourth quarter of 2010, As unemployment rates for young people the Eurozone.
and has continued since. While the world are higher than those for other age groups,
economy has stabilized after the 2009 the lack of opportunities for this group is I encourage you to visit our dedicated
recession, the uncertainties facing the increasing concerns of a “lost generation” Eurozone website — www . e y . com/ eef — for
Eurozone economy remain. of workers. This lack of opportunities would additional information on the Ernst & Young
result in major long-term socio-political Eurozone Forecast and the 17 individual
The debt crisis within the Eurozone is likely problems. country forecasts it comprises.
to weigh on the economic performance of
Eurozone countries for several years, along In this relatively bleak context, one may
with the threat of a default, and further forget that membership of the Eurozone can
financial instability. The European Union remain attractive compared to the other
may have reached a political agreement to options available. On 1 January 2011,
resolve the crisis, but it is still not clear how Estonia, a state of 1.3 million, became the
all countries are going to secure a stable 17th Eurozone member state. I believe that
recovery, and how debt restructuring will Estonia serves as an example of a country
be avoided. We believe it would take a very that managed to get a grip on national debt
robust, and unfortunately very unlikely, and the budget, and that the country has
economic rebound for the Eurozone’s a lot to gain from joining such a large market
periphery to achieve a sustainable debt and benefiting from a relatively stable
position. currency. But the Estonian Government will
Published in collaboration withErnst & Young Eurozone Forecast
April 2011
Uncertain prospects puts higher demand on Eurozone business 2
Highlights 5
Should we worry about the rise in inflation? 6
Muted recovery still expected … 6
… and inflation concerns return to the fore 7
Food and energy drive inflation up … 7
… and headline inflation will stay above 2% in 2011 … 7
… but should fall back next year … 9
… as spare capacity is ample … 9
… especially in labor markets 9
Further tensions in Middle East and North Africa could push headline inflation up … 10
… but raising rates as a response would be a mistake 10
… as downside risks to growth dominate 11
Fiscal test to start in earnest … 11
… and banking sector needs to survive without ECB’s lifeline 13
Sovereign risks remain … 14
… as reform proposals are too timid 15
Can the Eurozone still attract new members? 15
Conclusions 15
Forecast for Eurozone countries 16
17 Eurozone countries 16
Germany 17
France 18
Italy19
Spain20
Netherlands21
Belgium22
Austria23
Greece24
Finland25
Ireland26
Portugal 27
Slovakia 28
Luxembourg 29
Slovenia 30
Cyprus 31
Estonia 32
Malta 33
Detailed tables and charts 34
Forecast assumptions 34
Eurozone GDP and components 35
Prices and costs indicators 36
Labor market 37
Current account and fiscal balance 38
Measures of convergence/divergence within the Eurozone 38
Cross–country tables 39
Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition April 2011 1Uncer tainprospectsputshigher
demandonEurozonebusiness
Thefindingsinthespring2011editionofErnst & Young’s Eurozone Forecastarewithout
doubtasoberinganalysisofthesituation.RecenteventsintheMiddleEastandthecatastrophe
inJapanincreasetheuncer taintiesthatbusinessisfacing.C ompaniesarew aitingt oseehow
thev ariouscrisese volve ,andthe yusethisw aitingtimet ostrengthentheirint ernalstructures
andtheirrelativecompetitiveposition.Businessleader swouldbewelladvisedt omonit or
theEuro zone ’ seconom ycontinuallyandindetail.
For the Eurozone, our central scenario is one of a disappointing We think it is unfortunate for the ECB to raise interest rates
recovery — less than we would have expected at this stage of the at this juncture, as this policy poses risks to the Eurozone’s
cycle. But there are a number of present day threats that could economic recovery.
knock even our central forecast of a 1.5% increase in GDP for 2011.
The catastrophe in Japan, the unrest in the Middle East, possible The decision of the 11 March Eurozone summit to extend the size
overheating in the emerging markets and the continued evolution of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) was welcome.
of the Eurozone’s debt crisis are all significant events in their own But its remit remains restricted, particularly on the purchase of
rights. It is impossible to give a precise estimate of how they will government bonds. A number of proposals on economic governance
affect the Eurozone in their combination. have been made, which go in the right direction but fall short of
a significant move toward fiscal transfers. This underlines the fact
There are also opportunities for the Eurozone that might come that, as yet, there is no all-encompassing crisis resolution path.
from a more rapid expansion than currently envisaged in the shift Individual member countries remain keen to limit their own
in resources into green technologies, or into services to cater for financial exposure, but the multitude of solutions they offer do
aging populations. On balance, however, the downside risks are not constitute a coherent approach that could explain how and
dominant. when debt sustainability is likely to be achieved in the Eurozone’s
peripheral countries.
In this environment, we see very little probability of a sustained
increase in inflation, beyond the commodity price effects that The same goes for the efforts to resolve the ongoing banking crisis.
are currently lifting headline inflation rates. The rise in oil and Last year’s stress tests suffered credibility when Irish banks were
commodity prices will affect headline inflation throughout this year, bailed out only a few months after passing the tests with glory.
but the biggest impact on the economy will be through lower The new tests remain essentially unchanged in the most important
economic growth, not higher core inflation rates