ENERGY SECURITY IN EUROPE Proceedings from the conference ...

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• Publié par: paul.vallen
• Nombre de lectures: 170
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 2 Mo

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ENERGY SECURITY IN EUROPE

Proceedings from the conference “Energy Security in Europe”

Lund 24-25 September 2007

Edited by: Bo Petersson Barbara Törnquist-Plewa

CFE Conference Papers Series No. 2 Lund 2008

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The CFE Conference papers series is published by The Centre for European Studies (CFE) at Lund University:

© 2008 The Centre for European Studies at Lund University and the authors Editors: Bo Petersson and Barbara Törnquist-Plewa Layout: Patrik Sjunnesson ISSN: 1654-2185

The paper is also available in pdf-format at CFE’s website www.cfe.lu.se

CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES AT LUND UNIVERSITY

Box 201 SE-221 00 LUND SWEDEN

Phone [phone] Fax: [phone] E-mail: [e-mail]

Table of contents

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTIONEnergy Security in Europe

CHAPTER TWOAssessing the Connections between Climate Change and Security

CHAPTER THREEEnergy & Climate: The Real Priorities

CHAPTER FOURClimate and Energy Security: Prospects for a Transatlantic Approach

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CHAPTER FIVEFrom Bystander to Stakeholder: China’s Perspective on Climate Change 43

CHAPTER SIXClimate Change Mitigation and Security of Energy Supply Will Benefit from Technological Innovation

CHAPTER SEVENIndustrial Dynamics and Innovative Pressure on Energy -Sweden with European and Global Outlooks

CHAPTER EIGHTEU Energy Security from an Agenda-Setting Perspective – Implications for EU Climate Change Policy?

CHAPTER NINEThe “Renewable Revolution” and the CAP - Reforming the EU:s Agricultural Policy?

CHAPTER TENImpact of an Increased Biomass Use on Agricultural Markets, Prices and Food Security: A Longer-term Perspective

CHAPTER ELEVENProduction Costs in the EU for Energy Crops Production in Different Scales

CHAPTER TWELVEA Framework for Modeling Logical, Physical, and Geographic Dependencies between Critical Infrastructures

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CHAPTER THIRTEENAssessing the Relative Geopolitical Risk of Oil Importing Countries

CHAPTER FOURTEENProspects for European Energy Security

CHAPTER FIFTEENA Grand Strategy or Contingency: Russia’s Energy Relations in the Eurasian Context

CHAPTER SIXTEENIs Sweden’s Dependence on Russian Energy a Security Problem?

CHAPTER SEVENTEENThe Nexus between ENP and European Energy Security

CHAPTER EIGHTEENEuropean Energy Policy and the Caspian Sea Resources. The European Interests in Settling the Dispute About the Caspian Sea Legal Status

CHAPTER NINETEENEurope’s Energy Security: The Role of the Black Sea Region

Contributors to the Volume

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IIASA LDC LNG MNPP MoU

Mtoe NATO NEGP NESO NIP

NOx NYMEX OECD

OPEC PCA PJ RCG RF SEA SRC TACIS

TAIEX TAP TPES TRACECA UNFCCC USDA WTI

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Least Developed Country

Liquid Natural Gas

Medzamor Nuclear Power Plant Memorandum of Understanding Million Tonne Oil Equivalent = 41.868 PJ North Atlantic Treaty Organization North European Gas Pipeline National Emergency Sharing Organisation National Indicative Programme

Nitrogen Oxide New York Mercantile Exchange Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Partnership and Cooperation Agreement

Petajoule, 1015 Joule Reed Canary Grass Russian Federation Single European Act Short Rotation Coppices Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States Technical Assistance and Information Exchange Instrument Trans-Afghan Pipeline

Total Primary Energy Supply Transport Corridor to Connect Europe via the Caucasus to Asia United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

United States Department of Agriculture West Texas Intermediate

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

Energy Security in Europe

Bo Petersson & Barbara TörnquistPlewa

Since 2006 the energy-security and climate change nexus has dominated political agendas in Europe and globally. Energy security and climate concerns have soared to the top of political agendas all over the Western world, and forums like the European Union and G8 have treated the discussions as highest priority issues. Meanwhile, all over Europe the public opinion seems ready to accept far-reaching measures, also at the expense of individual freedoms of manoeuvre, to curb carbon emissions and promote the use of renewable energy. In the words of the so-called Copenhagen school, the energy-security and climate change nexus has become heavily securitized (Buzan et al 1998). This field opens up vast challenges for policy makers all over the world, but also for practitioners of scholarly research. Notably, there are two opposing trends that can be witnessed in the social sciences inquiry into energy security issues. First, the urgency of the energy security issues seems to have proven early globalization theorists right; the paramount threats to security in our contemporary times do not recognize national borders. The relevance of the old military reading of the nature of international threats seems to have died with the end of the cold war. There are multiple examples. The probable end to easily accessible reserves of fossil fuels is a global long-term threat; the spectre of terrorism and insecure supply lines is a common immediate danger, and climate change is a looming threat that proves the irrelevance of national borders. This is the denationalization thesis come alive (Scholte 2000). The opposite trend is also clearly visible, however. Political and economic developments in e.g. Russia and its surroundings seem to prove the renationalization thesis to be right, i.e. the idea that national borders and geopolitical thinking are actually being reinforced under globalization. Russia has emerged as an energy superpower (Scholte 2000). It has about a third of all proven gas reserves globally, and it is the supplier of another third of the European Union’s imports of natural gas. 2006 saw numerous instances when Russia seemed to attach a political price tag to the continuous supply of gas to former Soviet republics such as Ukraine, Belorussia and Georgia. Political bickering in relation to resource-rich Central Asian republics and the counter-moves to pipeline projects planned to break the Russian monopoly of supply routes from the Caspian region indeed seem to spell the return of power

Energy Security in Europe

politics. According to this reading, the realist world has returned with a vengeance.  So, scholarly debates are prone to continue. Meanwhile, the scholarly community direly needs to review the conceptual tools used to analyse this contradictory world. Our experience is rife with buzzwords within the social sciences; originally indispensable concepts that have become worn out due to overextension and overuse. One need only mention concepts such as identity, globalization and risk society. Now, energy security is the next likely candidate. The definitions used or implied are almost as numerous as the instances of its usage. The examples are manifold (Yergin 2006). In Western Europe, energy security has often been interpreted as security of supply at reasonable prices. This concern has commonly been believed to be met by the diversification of supply. With recent years’ increasing awareness of threats from potential terrorist attacks against pipelines, refineries, tankers and other parts of the supply and distribution system, and as climate security and concerns about carbon emission and global warming have entered everyday awareness, the complexity has increased. When interpretations made in other parts of the world are brought in, the complexity increases even more. In supplier states like Russia, energy security is naturally interpreted in terms of the projected stability of energy markets. China and India again have different concerns, such as how to satisfy their soaring energy consumption needs on an increasingly volatile world market. The meaning of energy security thus is heavily context-bound and context-dependent. Unfortunately, in the public debate, the concept is often being used without any explications; its meaning is just taken for granted. In fact it cannot be. The scholarly community has an important task to fulfil here, to bring greater conceptual clarity into the terminological morass. On September 24-25 2007, 60 distinguished participants from 15 countries gathered at a conference organised by the ENSE group at Lund University. ENSE is an acronym for Energy and Security in Europe. Its primary ambition is to link up distinguished experts on different aspects of the energy-security and climate change nexus at Lund University, providing the grounds for trans-faculty, multidisciplinary and internationally competitive research. Since its inception in the summer of 2006 the ENSE group has been coordinated by the Lund University Centre for European Studies. ENSE consists of internationally recognised research milieus from the Faculty of Social Sciences, the Faculty of Humanities, the Faculty of Engineering, the School of Economics and Management, the International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics, the Research Policy Institute and the Swedish Institute for Food and Agricultural Economics.  The conference was organised into three workshops, dealing with Energy, security and risk; Energy and agriculture; and Climate and energy security. During the two days of the conference there were five keynote speeches and in the three panels all in all 25 papers were discussed. The bulk of these keynote addresses and scholarly papers are, slightly revised, published in this volume. So, let us briefly introduce the papers in the order that they appear in the volume. In

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Energy Security in Europe

Chapter Two, Joshua W. Busby discusses the security implications on climate change, analysing how climate change can pose both a direct threat to a country’s national security and also how it can indirectly threaten a country’s extraterritorial interests. He sees adaptation and mitigation measures as components of the global strategies of how to combat climate change and how to counter its security implications. He also stresses the necessity that the United States, China, India and Indonesia take on their responsibilities in this regard. In Chapter Three, Carole Nakhle takes on a slightly different perspective when addressing the nexus between the energy security and climate change issues. While agreeing that the issues have to be addressed together and underlining that she does not see a tension between them, she also argues that governments have to focus on those issues that lie in their power to control, and therefore that energy security issues in practice have to be addressed first. If they are, she argues, the climate change issues will be dealt with, but, she writes, there is a need to ‘develop all these things cautiously and bit by bit’. Decision-making aspects are brought to the fore in Chapter Four as Raphael Sauter suggests an agenda-setting framework for the better understanding of the EU energy policy process in the context of energy security and climate change policy. He argues that the route of agenda-setting typical of EU energy security policy needs to face ongoing processes at the level of ‘low politics’; the failure of linking up low and high politics processes results in a fragmented agenda and questions the likelihood of relevant policy outputs, he argues. The EU’s difficulties in addressing conflicts and trade-offs with the integration of energy security and climate change policies highlight the need for institutional changes in the EU, he argues. Returning to the issue of how to accomplish global cooperation in trying to address security challenges emanating from climate change, DennisTänzler assesses in Chapter Five prospects for cooperation between the European Union, which so far has been in the driver seat when it comes to efforts to promote measures mitigating climate change, and the United States that under the administration of George W. Bush has been so adamantly opposed to Kyoto and post-Kyoto cooperation schemes. He sees encouraging signs of a convergence between climate and energy security agendas in the United States, and believes above all that the next presidential administration, regardless of whether it will be headed by Barack Obama, John McCain or Hillary Clinton, will be decidedly more forthcoming in this global work. Since many writers have addressed the essentiality of having China more committed and engaged in global carbon reduction work, it is very valuable to include a Chinese perspective on these issues in the volume. In Chapter Six, Qin Tianbao argues that during the past 15 years, China’s attitude to climate change and its legal and policy response has largely changed from that of a stander-by to a stakeholder. The change can according to Qin Tianbao be illuminated by developments in three arenas: the transformation of the competent national authority for climate change, adjustment of general laws and policies, and shift of focuses of specific actions. These developments are carefully traced in his chapter.

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Energy Security in Europe

Where the first papers have been more global in scope or advanced perspectives from outside of Europe, the next two papers deal more specifically with Europe as such and centre on issues of technological change and innovation. In Chapter Seven, Heleen Groenenberg et al argue that EU energy policies are evaluated with respect to their capacity to simultaneously meet the objectives of mitigating climate change, securing energy supply and improving competitiveness. Technological innovation will be highly vital here, and energy innovation policies need to meet a number of requirements to be successful. Going through a number of these, the authors argue that there is a need to prioritize future action for an energy transition in the EU. Providing a complementary perspective on problems of innovation, Lennart Schön and Astrid Kander present in Chapter Eight a long-term pattern of evolution of energy systems. Their focus is on industrial dynamics and its impact on energy systems. The authors discern three epochs in the historical data: the present one is called the modern areal epoch whose innovations are still under incremental evolution. Although important innovations are taking place both on the energy supply and demand side, these are likely to remain insufficient in the foreseeable future to meet the growing energy demand from China, India, Russia and other fast growing economies. The authors therefore argue that the increase in energy prices as compared to industrial products will continue. This is likely to foster political tensions over energy issues, challenge innovative capabilities in Europe and pose great potentials for increasing profits in energy technologies. The next cluster of papers retains the focus on change and innovation but discuss above all present and future challenges to agriculture, not least in Europe, as biomass has been many been dubbed the solution to the demands for more carbon-neutral energy supplies. Thus, in Chapter Nine Josef Schmidhuber examines the impact of the rising demand for bioenergy on agricultural markets and prices. He thereby argues that the demand for bioenergy is significant enough to create a change in the traditional paradigm for global agriculture, which has been characterized for decades by robust supply growth, slowing demand growth and falling real prices for agricultural produce. Based on the likely price effects in food and energy markets, he goes on to assesses the impact of rising bioenergy production on food security, differentiating between effects on availability, access and stability of food supplies. Quite clearly Schmidhuber cautions against seeing bioenergy as a magic bullet solution to global climate and energy security problems; that potential is simply lacking, he holds. In Chapter Ten Malena Rosén Sundström points out that within the general context of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the EU has in recent years taken several steps to increase the production of renewable energy. Her focus is on how the changes brought about by these measures have affected and are likely to affect the member states in the short-term with regard to their political positions in the CAP. She concludes that energy crops will continue to play an important role in EU agriculture in the years to come and that rising energy security concerns will remain a vital aspect governing the future evolution of the

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Energy Security in Europe

CAP. In Chapter Eleven Håkan Rosenqvist et al present an analysis of energy crop production costs from the perspective of the farmer. The objective of their paper is to calculate indicative cost ranges on a regional level for a number of energy crops. The analysis was made for three cases, two of which refer to the knowledge and technical level in 2005, and one of which refers to that in 2020.The production cost consists of three main components: the costs of cultivation, land and risk. In terms of concrete results the energy crop production costs were estimated to be consistently lowest for short rotation coppices like poplar and willow and highest for annual straw crops like hemp and sorghum. In the next cluster of papers there is a move towards issues oriented more squarely towards security and risk. In a technically sophisticated paper Niels Kalstad Svendsen and Stephen Wolthusen argue in Chapter Twelve that critical infrastructures such as the electric grid, oil and gas pipelines, telecommunications, and financial services are characterized by direct and transitive interdependencies which may not always be readily visible. Vulnerability in elements of one infrastructure can lead to a cascade of failures. In some cases this chain is established immediately after the failure (as in the case of a telecommunication link going down), and in some cases these failures manifest themselves only after a certain time (as in the case of emergency fuel based power generator running out of fuel). In their paper the authors describe several statistical and algorithmic approaches for the analysis of critical infrastructure interdependencies. They argue that their techniques can be used e.g. to determine consequences of detonations in a fuel storage facility, water dam rupture or side effects of rupturing pipelines. In Chapter Thirteen Eshita Gupta assesses, through the construction of an index, the relative geopolitical oil supply vulnerability of 26 net oil-importing countries. So she does on the basis of five factors – oil import dependence, concentration of supply sources, political risk in supplying countries, market liquidity, and the share of oil in their total primary energy supply – which influence the countries’ exposure to global geopolitical developments. Her conclusion is that the risk measures of the most vulnerable countries (such as Japan and Switzerland) is found to be about 40 times higher than that of the most secure countries (such as China and Australia). The major factors that make the former most vulnerable are their almost total import dependence, poorly diversified sources with major imports from politically difficult OPEC countries, and relatively higher oil share in their total primary energy supply. The final six papers all approach the energy security issues through a more or less geopolitical reading. They discuss risks and threats in a more traditional way where the hazards facing the energy supply of the European Union most frequently have a common denominator by way of Russia. Partly providing a counterargument to ideas about a prevailing Russian grand design in the area of energy supplies, however, David Dusseault criticizes in Chapter Fifteen vintage geopolitical models that to his mind have been recycled and applied to the contemporary energy issue. His paper therefore seeks to take the energy issue out of the restrictions of the energy security

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