Global Development Horizons 2011

The World Bank

Description

Transition to a new world order with more diffuse distribution of economic power is under way. This first edition of a new World Bank flagship report, 'Global Development Horizons 2011', focuses on three major international economic trends: the shift in the balance of global growth from developed to emerging economies, the rise of emerging-market firms as a force in global business, and the evolution of the international monetary system toward a multicurrency regime.
Pursuit of growth opportunities on a global level has meant that the international presence of emerging-market firms in cross-border production, trade, and finance has been on the rise for some time. Emerging and developing counties accounted for 46 percent of international trade flows in 2010, up from 30 percent in 1995. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions originated by firms based in emerging markets represent nearly one-third of global M and A transactions. The risk of investing in emerging economies has declined dramatically, while emerging economies' financial assets and wealth have expanded: emerging and developing countries now hold three-fourth of all official foreign exchange reserves.
Despite the large, rapidly growing size of emerging economies and the expanding international presence of emerging-market firms, the role of emerging economies in the international monetary system remains relatively insignificant. No emerging-market currency is used to a great extent in holding official reserves, invoicing goods and services, denominating international claims, or anchoring exchange rates. Virtually all developing countries are exposed to currency mismatch risk in their international trade, investment, and financing transactions. But it appears that this too will change in the coming years. Smoothing the transition to a multipolar monetary environment will be high on the agenda of policy makers, who will face major decisions about whether fundamental reform of the rules of the international monetary system is in order.
The first edition of 'Global Development Horizons' consists of a hard-copy publication and a companion website (http://www.worldbank.org/GDH2011), the latter of which will include the report's underlying data and methodology, blog postings, and background papers and will incorporate an interactive feature allowing users to explore the scenarios described in GDH 2011. In the future, the site will continue to contribute to international discourse on multipolarity by serving as a repository for related research papers and as a platform for interactive debate among academic, policy, and business institutions concerned with long-term global economic change and its implications for development policy.

Sujets

• Bilateral trade
• Current account
• Financial transaction
• World economy
• Globalization
• World currency
• International monetary systems
• World Bank

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 13 juin 2011
• Nombre de lectures: 25
• EAN13: 9780821386927
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 6 Mo

Extrait

Global
Development
Horizons
2011
Multipolarity:
The New
Global
EconomyGlobal Development Horizons 2011
Multipolarity: The New Global EconomyGlobal Development Horizons 2011
Multipolarity: The New Global Economy© 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
Telephone: [phone]
Internet: www.worldbank.org
All rights reserved
1 2 3 4 14 13 12 11
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The
World Bank. The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily
refl ect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent.
The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,
denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the
part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of
such boundaries.
Rights and Permissions
The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work
without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission
to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete informa-
tion to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone:
978-750-8400; fax: [phone]; Internet: www.copyright.com.
All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce
of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: [phone];
e-mail: [e-mail].
ISBN: 978-0-8213-8692-7
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8693-4
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8692-7
ISSN: 2221-8416
Cover image: Untitled, by Marc Pekala, 2010
Cover design: Financial Communications, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, United StatesContents
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xi
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xvii
Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Emerging Growth Poles Will Alter the Balance of Global Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Emerging-Market Multinationals Becoming a Potent Force in Reshaping the Process of
Industrial Globalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Multipolar International Economy to Lead to a Larger Role for the Euro and, in
the Long Term, for the Renminbi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Multipolarity to Bring Benefi ts and New Challenges to the Developing World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
CHAPTER 1: Changing Growth Poles and Financial Positions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Growth Poles and the Global Macroeconomy in the Postcrisis Era . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
The Character of Growth in the Potential Emerging Economy Poles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Dynamics of New Growth Poles: Implications for Domestic Output, Trade Flow Patterns,
and Global Payments Imbalances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Growth Poles and Multipolarity in the Future World Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Policy Challenges and the Development Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Annexes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
CHAPTER 2: The Changing Global Corporate Landscape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Emerging-Market Multinationals: Agents of Change in a Multipolar World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT HORIZONS 2011 vvi Contents Global Development Horizons 2011
The Growth and Globalization of Emerging-Market Corporate Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Devising an Effective Framework for Cross-Border Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
Annexes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .118
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
CHAPTER 3: Multipolarity in International Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
International Currency Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Moving to a Multicurrency International Monetary System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
The Shape of Things to Come: Some Scenarios for a Future International Monetary System . . . 142
A Path toward Improved Institutional Management of a Multipolar World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Annexes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
References. . . . . . . . . 157
Boxes
1.1 What is a growth pole? Defi ning poles in theory and practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.2 Growth poles at the regional level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
1.3 Proximate and fundamental factors related to multidimensional growth polarity . . . . . . . 22
1.4Suggestive evidence of successful transitions to consumption-driven growth . . . . . . . . . 35
1.5 Modeling the current account and growth process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
1.6 Multipolarity and commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
2.1 Empirical analysis of cross-border bilateral M&A fl ows from emerging economies . . . . . 87
2.2 The global expansion of cross-border fi nancial transactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
2.3 Data on international bond issues by fi rms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
2.4 Econometric estimations of corporate bond spreads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
2.5 The long history of failed negotiations over a multilateral investment framework . . . . . . 105
3.1 Historically, one national currency has played a global role—or at most,
a few national currencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
3.2 Benefi ts from currency internationalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
3.3 The changing external fi nancial position of developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Figures
1.1 Channels of growth spillovers from a growth pole . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.2 Historical evolution of simple growth polarity, selected economies, 1–2008 . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.3 Modern evolution of multidimensional growth polarity, selected advanced and
emerging economies, 1969–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.4 Evolution of multipolarity, alternative indexes, 1968–2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
1.5 Global distribution of growth poles, 1994–98 and 2004–08 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.6 Total factor productivity contribution to growth, selected potential poles . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26