Since September 11, 2001, the imagination of "low probability, high consequence" events has become a distinctive feature of contemporary politics. Uncertain futures-devastation by terrorist attack, cyber crime, flood, financial market collapse-must be discerned and responded to as possibilities, however improbable they may be. In The Politics of Possibility, Louise Amoore examines this development, tracing its genealogy through the diverse worlds of risk management consulting, computer science, commercial logistics, and data visualization. She focuses on the increasingly symbiotic relationship between commercial opportunities and state security threats, a relation that turns the trusted, iris-scanned traveler into "a person of national security interest," and the designer of risk algorithms for casino and insurance fraud into a homeland security resource. Juxtaposing new readings of Agamben, Foucault, Derrida, Massumi, and Connolly with interpretations of post-9/11 novels and artworks, Amoore analyzes the "politics of possibility" and its far-reaching implications for society, associative life, and political accountability.
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THE POLITICS OF POSSIBILITY
THE POLITICS OF POSSIBILITY Risk and Security Beyond Probability
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Amoore, Louise. The politics of possibility : risk and security beyond probability / Louise Amoore. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. isbn978–0-8223–5545–8 (cloth : alk. paper)—isbn978–0-8223–5560–1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. International relations—Risk assessment. 2. National security—Technological innovations. 3. Terrorism—Prevention—Technological innovations.i. Title. jz6368.a46 2013 355.'033—dc23 2013024843
Sections of chapter 1 appeared previously in “Algorithmic War: Everyday Geographies of the War on Terror,”Antipode41, no. 1 (2009).
A version of chapter 2 appeared previously as “Data Derivatives: On the Emergence of a Security Risk Calculus for Our Times,” Theory, Culture & Society 28, no. 6 (2011): 24–43.
For Gracie and Tom
Contents
Acknowledgements ix introduction. On the Politics of Possibility 1
Part I. TECHNIQUES 1on authority. Probabilities for a World of Possibility 29 2on risk. Securing Uncertain Futures 55
Part II. SPACES 3on the line79. Life Signatures and the Writing of the Border 4on location105. Reconciling Security and Mobility
Part III. EFFECTS 5on aesthetics129. Security’s Objects and the Form of Data 6on a potential politics155. Toward an Ethics of the Unanticipated
Notes 177
Bibliography 203
Index 217
Acknowledgments
To reflect on the gestation of a book is to confront the impossibility of ever telling a complete story. One imagines always a process with a distinct be-ginning, a series of key moments along the way, and a defined point when the work is done. If this were the truth of the experience of exploring an idea, pushing at its edges, talking and writing about it over a period of years, then expressing thanks to all those who have played their part would be easy—for they would simply assemble along the route. Instead, of course, identifying the many moments when something new emerges, or when some idea long held dissipates and disappears from view, is profoundly dif-ficult. I know only that I am fortunate beyond words to work with friends, colleagues, and interlocutors whose lively thinking and generous support are the very conditions of possibility of this book. I am especially grateful to work with such wonderful colleagues in the Department of Geography at Durham University. Perhaps because some of my colleagues work in laboratories, model sea level changes, examine the dynamics of landslide or ice sheet, there is an atmosphere of experi-mentation and a support for pursuing a hunch! My profound thanks to colleagues past and present: Ash Amin, Ben Anderson, Mike Bentley, DavidCampbell, Angharad Closs-Stephens, Nick Cox, Mike Crang, Stuart Elden, Steve Graham, Alex Hall, Francisco Klauser, Paul Langley, Anthony Long, Colin McFarlane, Joe Painter, and Dave Petley. I thank them for their un-wavering support, their generous contributions to many workshops and seminars, their capacity to ask difficult questions gently, and for all the times I found clippings from the London Review of Books or obscure com-puter modeling articles in my mail tray! I have also been extremely lucky to