Two Crises, Different Outcomes

T. J. Pempel and Keiichi Tsunekawa (Editors)

Description

Two Crises, Different Outcomes examines East Asian policy reactions to the two major crises of the last fifteen years: the global financial crisis of 2008-9 and the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. The calamity of the late 1990s saw a massive meltdown concentrated in East Asia. In stark contrast, East Asia avoided the worst effects of the Lehman Brothers collapse, incurring relatively little damage when compared to the financial devastation unleashed on North America and Europe. Much had changed across the intervening decade, not least that China rather than Japan had become the locomotive of regional growth, and that the East Asian economies had taken numerous steps to buffer their financial structures and regulatory regimes. This time, Asia avoided disaster; it bounced back quickly after the initial hit and has been growing in a resilient fashion ever since.The authors of this book explain how the earlier financial crisis affected Asian economies, why government reactions differed so widely during that crisis, and how Asian economies weathered the Great Recession. Drawing on a mixture of single-country expertise and comparative analysis, they conclude by assessing the long-term prospects that Asian countries will continue their recent success.Contributors: Muhamad Chatib Basri, Minister of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia and Professor of Economics at the University of Indonesia; Yun-han Chu, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica; Richard Doner, Emory University; Barry Naughton, University of California, San Diego; Yasunobu Okabe, Japan International Cooperation Agency Research Institute; T. J. Pempel, University of California, Berkeley; Thomas Pepinsky, Cornell University; Keiichi Tsunekawa, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo

Sujets

• Economie gestion
• East Asia
• Political economy
• History of Asia
• Far East
• Finance

Informations

• Publié par: Cornell University Press
• Date de parution: 06 mai 2015
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9780801455025
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

Two Crises, Different Outcomes

A voume în the serîes

CornellStudiesinPoliticalEconomy EdîtedbyPeterJ.Katzensteîn

Aîstotîtesînthîsserîesîsavaîabeatwww.cornepress.corne.edu.

Two Crises, Different Outcomes

EastAsiaandGlobalFinance

Edited by T. J. Pempel and Keiichi Tsunekawa

CorneUnîversîtyPress ïthaca and London

Cover design by Sean McDowell Pempel.

Copyright © 2015 by Cornell University

All rights reserved. Except or brie quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereo, must not be reproduced in any orm without permission in writing rom the publisher. For inormation, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850.

First published 2015 by Cornell University Press First printing, Cornell Paperbacks, 2015

Printed in the United States o America

Library o Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data  Two crises, diferent outcomes : East Asia and global finance / edited by T.J. Pempel and Keiichi Tsunekawa.  pages cm. — (Cornell studies in political economy)  Includes bibliographical reerences and index.  ISBN 978-0-8014-5340-3 (cloth : alk. paper)  ISBN 978-0-8014-7971-7 (pbk. : alk. paper)  1. Financial crises—Asia—Congresses. 2. Global Financial Crisis, 2008–2009—Congresses. 3. Asia—Economic conditions—1945– Congresses. 4. Asia—Economic conditions—21st century— Congresses. I. Pempel, T. J., 1942– editor. II. Tsunekawa, Keiichi, 1948– editor. III. Basri, M. Chatib. Tale o two crises. Container o (work):  HB3808.T96 2015  330.95'0429—dc23 2014022390

Cornell University Press strives to use environmentally responsible suppliers and materials to the ullest extent possible in the publishing o its books. Such materials include vegetable-based, low-VOC inks and acid-ree papers that are recycled, totally chlorine-ree, or partly composed o nonwood fibers. For urther inormation, visit our website at www.cornellpress.cornell.edu.

Cloth printing Paperback printing

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2. A Tale of the Two Crises: Indonesia’s Political Economy MuhammadChatîbBasrî

6

4

4

3. Unraveling the Enigma of East Asian Economic Resiliency: The Case of Taiwan Yun-hanChu

1

9

0

110

1

7

5. China and the Two Crises: From 1997 to 2009 BarryNaughton

4. Reacting to Financial Crises: Institutional Path Dependence in Korea and Thailand YasunobuOkabe

1

Contents

LîstoIllustratîons Preace Contrîbutors

1. Two Crises, Two Outcomes T.J.Pempel

Introduction:Crises,Corrections,andChallenges T.J.PempelandKeîîchîTsunekawa

vîî îx xî

PART1.DealingwithCrises:ContinuitiesandChanges

viContents

PART2.TowardaSecondEastAsiaMiracle?

6. Political Business and External Vulnerability in Southeast Asia ThomasB.Pepînsky

7. Success as Trap? Crises and Challenges in Export-Oriented Southeast Asia RîchardDoner

8. Japan: The Political Economy of Long Stagnation KeîîchîTsunekawa

Conclusion:TowardaSecondEastAsiaMiracle? T.J.PempelandKeîîchîTsunekawa

WorksCîted Index

137

163

185

216

235 259

Illustrations

Figures 2.1. Economîc growth, 1997–98 versus 2008–9 2.2. Exchange rate, 1997–98 versus 2008–9 2.3. ïnflatîon, 1997–98 versus 2008–9 2.4. Quartery growth o export vaues 3.1. GDP growth rate o Taîwan and Korea, 1995–2013 4.1. Bank oans în Korea and Thaîand, 1998–2012 4.2. Loan/deposît ratîo o commercîa banks în Korea and Thaîand 5.1. Credît growth and CPï înflatîon 5.2. Physîca înrastructure învestment 5.3. Exports, îmports, and oicîa reserves 6.1. GDP growth rate o our Southeast Asîan countrîes, 1990–98 6.2. Prîvate sector credît 6.3. GDP growth rate o our Southeast Asîan countrîes, 2002–10 6.4. Nomîna USD exchange rates, 1996–99 and 2007–10 6.5. FDï and portoîo învestment, 2005–11 6.6. Reserves/tota externa debt, 1991–2011 6.7. PRS poîtîca rîsk ratîngs, three-year roîng averages, 1991–2010 8.1. Share o expendîtures în GDP 8.2. Japan’s GDP growth rate and îts components 8.3. Contrîbutîon o three components o gross capîta ormatîon to GDP growth 8.4. Korea’s GDP growth rate and îts components

43 44 44 51 66 101 102 113 114 115 139 144 151 152 153 154

156 197 200

202 212

viiiIllustrations

Tables ï.1. GDP growth rate, 1990–2013 2.1. Poîcy responses în 1997–98 and 2008–9 3.1. Taîwan’s top fiteen banks by net worth 4.1. Externa debt o Korea, 2006–8 4.2. Externa debt o Thaîand, 2006–8 6.1. Ratîo o net înflow o debts to GDP, 1991–96 6.2. Ratîo o net înflow o învestment to GDP, 1991–96 6.3. Poîtîca-busîness reatîons în Southeast Asîa, 1990s and 2000s 6.4. Poîcîes, învestors, and externa vunerabîîty 8.1. Pubîc expendîture and natîona debt

14 48 79 104 107 143 143 149 157 193

Preface

TheEastAsîancountrîessurprîsedthewordbyanastonîshîngyquîck recovery rom the devastatîng economîc crîsîs that hît the regîon în 1997–98. They repeated a sîmîary rapîd rebound rom the Goba Fînancîa Crîsîs o 2008–9 and have contînued to încrease theîr share o word productîon în the years sînce. Such achîevements raîse questîons about the sources o such resîîence and strength as we as about the ong-term economîc prospects o the regîon. To expore these questîons, the Japan ïnternatîona Cooperatîon Agency Research ïnstîtute ( JïCA-Rï) în 2010 aunched a research project on the poîtîca economy o the East Asîan countrîes. Keîîchî Tsunekawa served as dîrector o the înstîtute at the tîme. JïCA, the most împortant agency or oicîa deveopment assîstance o Japan, wanted to earn essons rom the project that ît coud utîîze în îts uture cooperatîon projects wîth the mîdde- încome countrîes în East Asîa and în îts deveopment operatîons în ower- încome countrîes în Asîa, Arîca, and Latîn Amerîca. Durîngthecourseotheproject,wehedtwoconerencesattheînstîtute, the first în September 2010 and the second în February 2012. ïn addîtîon to the chapters în thîs voume, papers were presented by Whasun Jho, Mîn Gyo Koo, ïkuo Kume, Jean-Caude Maswana, Thîtînan Pongsudhîrak, and Lîhuî Tîan. We thank the JïCA-Rï or the u financîa support o the proj- ect. Then deputy dîrector Hîroshî Kato, who îs now dîrector o JïCA-Rï and vîce presîdent o JïCA, and the managerîa staf o the înstîtute, provîded us wîth consîderabe hep în ogîstîcs. Fîona Shen-Bayh at the Unîversîty o Caî- ornîa, Berkeey, gave vauabe hep în preparîng the fina manuscrîpt. We aso benefited rom useu comments rom partîcîpants at the conerences. Fînay, we want to express our deepest thanks to Peter J. Katzensteîn and an anonymous revîewer who read the manuscrîpt and provîded hepu com- ments and crîtîques, as we as to Roger Haydon at Corne Unîversîty Press or hîs support and encouragement o the project.