The Logical Thinking Process

H. William Dettmer

Description

A major rewrite of Dettmer's classic Goldratt's Theory of Constraints, this new edition presents a whole new approach to building and applying logic trees. The logical thinking process referred to in the title is nothing less than a broadly applicable, systems-level approach to policy analysis.
Dettmer has streamlined the process of constructing the logic trees while simultaneously ensuring that the results are more logically sound and closer representations of reality than ever before. He explains an easier, more logically sound way to integrate Current Reality Trees with Evaporating Clouds. His new version of the thinking process "retires" the Transition Tree in favor of the marriage of a more detailed Prerequisite Tree and critical chain project management.
This book contains new examples of logic trees from a variety of real-world applications. Most of the diagrams and illustrations are new and improved. Explanations and procedures for constructing the logic trees are considerably simplified.

Sujets

• Business
• Qualité, hygiène, sécurité, environnement
• Gestion et management
• Economics
• Leadership

Informations

• Publié par: ASQ Quality Press
• Date de parution: 24 mai 2007
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9780873895897
• Langue: English

Extrait

The Logical Thinking Process
A Systems Approach to Complex Problem Solving
H. William Dettmer
ASQ Quality Press
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
American Society for Quality, Quality Press, Milwaukee, WI 53203
© 2007 by H. William Dettmer
All rights reserved. Published 2007.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Dettmer, H. William.
The logical thinking process : a systems approach to complex problem solving /
H. William Dettmer.
p. cm.
A total re-write, more than a second edition, of his Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints, c1997.
Accompanied by a compact disk that contains a full-function, unrestricted copy of version 1.0 of Transformation Logic Tree software.
ISBN 978-0-87389-723-5
1. Decision support systems. 2. Problem solving. 3. Theory of constraints (Management)
4. Decision trees--Computer programs. 5. Industrial management. I. Dettmer, H. William. Goldratt’s theory of constraints. II. Title. III. Title: Systems approach to complex problem solving.
HD30.213.D48 2007
658.4'03--dc22 2007026109
No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
Publisher: William A. Tony
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Production Administrator: Randall Benson
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Table of Contents
Preface
Acknowledgments
Introduction
PART I—The Destination
Chapter 1. Introduction to the Theory of Constraints
Systems and “Profound Knowledge”
The System’s Goal
The Manager’s Role
Who Is a Manager?
What Is the Goal?
Goal, Critical Success Factor, or Necessary Condition?
The Concept of System Constraints
Systems as Chains
The “Weakest Link”
Constraints and Non-constraints
A Production Example
Relation of Constraints to Quality Improvement
Change and the Theory of Constraints
TOC Principles
Systems as Chains
Local vs. System Optima
Cause and Effect
Undesirable Effects and Critical Root Causes
Solution Deterioration
Physical vs. Policy Constraints
Ideas Are NOT Solutions
The Five Focusing Steps of TOC
1. Identify the System Constraint
2. Decide How to Exploit the Constraint
3. Subordinate Everything Else
4. Elevate the Constraint
5. Go Back to Step 1, but Beware of “Inertia”
Throughput, Inventory, and Operating Expense
Throughput (T)
Inventory/Investment (I)
Operating Expense (OE)
Which Is Most Important: T, I, or OE?
T, I, and OE: An Example
T, I, and OE in Not-for-Profit Organizations
Universal Measures of Value
Passive Inventory
Active Inventory (Investment)
Managing T Through Undesirable Effects
The TOC Paradigm
Applications and Tools
Drum-Buffer-Rope
Critical Chain Project Management
Replenishment and Distribution
Throughput Accounting
The Logical Thinking Process
The Goal Tree
The Current Reality Tree
The Evaporating Cloud: A Conflict Resolution Diagram
The Future Reality Tree
The Prerequisite Tree
The Transition Tree
The Categories of Legitimate Reservation
The Logical Tools as a Complete “Thinking Process”
Figure 1.19: The Six Logical Tools as an Integrated Thinking Process
Chapter 2. Categories of Legitimate Reservation
Definition
Purpose
Assumptions
How to Use This Chapter
Description of the Categories of Legitimate Reservation
1. Clarity
Why Clarity Comes First
What Clarity Means
2. Entity Existence
Completeness
Structure
Validity
3. Causality Existence
4. Cause Insufficiency
The Ellipse
Relative Magnitude of Dependent Causes
How Many Arrows?
The Concept of “Oxygen”
5. Additional Cause
Magnitude
Test
A Unique Variation of Additional Cause
Complex Causality
What Is It?
Cause Sufficiency
Conceptual “AND”
Additional Cause
Magnitudinal “AND”
Exclusive “OR”
Symbols
6. Cause-Effect Reversal
The “Fishing Is Good” Example
The Statistical Example
The Medical Example
Test
7. Predicted Effect Existence
Conflict or Differences in Magnitude?
Tangible or Intangible?
Verbalizing Predicted Effect Existence
8. Tautology (Circular Logic)
Baseball Example
Vampire Example
Test
Using the CLR in a Group
CLR Known by All
CLR Known Only by the Tree-Builder
Sufficiency-Based vs. Necessity-Based Logic Trees
Symbols and Logic Tree Conventions
Three Reasons to Standardize
Credibility
Ergonomics
Miscommunication of Logic
A Standard Symbol Set
A Standard Convention for Logical Connections
Summary
Figure 2.36: Categories of Legitimate Reservation: Self-Scrutiny Checklist
Chapter 3. Goal Tree
Introduction
Definition
Purpose
Assumptions
How to Use This Chapter
System Boundaries, Span of Control, and Sphere of Influence
Span of Control
Sphere of Influence
The External Environment
Control vs. Influence
Doing the Right Things vs. Doing Things Right
The Goal
Who Sets the Goal?
Critical Success Factors and Necessary Conditions
Description of the Intermediate Objectives (IO) Map
Strategic Application
A Hierarchy of Systems
GTs Are Unique
Characteristics of the GT
Examples of Strategic Goal Trees
Process-Level GT
System-Level GT
How to Construct an Intermediate Objectives (IO) Map
1. Define the System
2. Determine the System Goal
3. Determine the Critical Success Factors
4. Determine the Key Necessary Conditions
5. Arrange the GT Components
6. Connect the Goal, Critical Success Factors, and Necessary Conditions
7. Verify the Connections
The “10,000-Foot Test”
8. Enlist Outside Scrutiny of the Entire GT
Figure 3.14: Procedures for Constructing an Intermediate Objectives (IO) Map—abbreviated checklist
Summary and Conclusion
Figure 3.15: Example: A Real-World GT
PART II—Gap Analysis and Correction
Chapter 4. Current Reality Tree
Definition
Purpose
Assumptions
How to Use This Chapter
Description of the Current Reality Tree (CRT)
A Single Tool or Part of a Set
Span of Control and Sphere of Influence
Correlation vs. Cause and Effect
Predicting Rain in Siberia: A Simple Example of Correlation
Fibromyalgia and Myofascial Pain: A Complex Real-World Example
Undesirable Effects
Undesirable by What Standard?
How to Identify and Check for Undesirability
Existence in Reality
Why the Emphasis on UDEs?
Root Causes
Core Problems and Root Causes
The “70 Percent” Criterion
Inability to Act on a Core Problem
A Solution to the Core Problem Conundrum
Critical Root Cause: A Definition
Main Body of the CRT
Archetypical CRTs
Depicting a Current Reality Tree
Entities
Entities in a Current Reality Tree
Arrows
Underlying Assumptions
Ellipses, Magnitudinal ANDs, and Exclusive ORs
Ellipses
Magnitudinal ANDs
Exclusive ORs
Variations on a Theme
Numbering Entities in a Tree
The Most Common Logical Errors in a Sufficiency Tree
Clarity in the Arrow
Don’t Induce Confusion
Don’t Miss Opportunities to Break the Chain of Cause and Effect
Cause Insufficiency
The Concept of “Oxygen” Revisited
Entity Existence
Reading a Current Reality Tree
Negative Reinforcing Loops
Reading a Negative Reinforcing Loop
How to Construct a Current Reality Tree
Gather Materials
1. Define the System to be Modeled
2. Determine the Undesirable Effects
Compare Reality with Benchmarks of System Success
Create a Starting Matrix
3. Determine the First Two Levels of Causality
Transfer UDEs and Causes to Post-it Notes
4. Begin the Current Reality Tree
5. Improve the Logic of the Initial Clusters
6. Identify Possible Additional Causes
Two Criteria for Additional Causes
7. Look for Lateral Connections
8. Build the Cause-and-Effect Chains Downward
9. Scrutinize the Entire Current Reality Tree
10. Decide Which Root Causes to Attack
Scrutinizing the Current Reality Tree
The Categories of Legitimate Reservation
Techniques for “Shortstopping” Logical Challenges
When “All” or “None” Are Not Acceptable
Inclusive and Exclusive
Qualifying Words
Too Many Arrows?
Simple Logical Aid #1: Means, Method, and Motivation
Simple Logical Aid #2: The Syllogism
Using the CRT with Other Parts of the Thinking Process
The Current Reality Tree and the Evaporating Cloud
The Current Reality Tree and the Future Reality Tree
Summary
Figure 4.45: Procedures for Constructing a Current Reality Tree (CRT)—abbreviated checklist
Figure 4.46: Current Reality Tree: Fordyce Corporation
Chapter 5. Evaporating Cloud
Definition
Purpose
Assumptions
How to Use This Chapter
Description of the Evaporating Cloud
The Nature of Conflict
Conflict Is Not Always Obvious
Two Types of Conflict
Opposite Conditions
Different Alternatives
Compromise, “Win-Lose” or “Win-Win”?
Compromise
Win-Lose
Win-Win
An Indication of Hidden Conflict
“Breakthrough Solutions”
Elements of the Evaporating Cloud
Symbology
Objective
Requirements
Prerequisites
How the Evaporating Cloud Relates to the Current Reality Tree
Why Do Root Causes of Undesirable Effects Exist?
Policies and Constraints
Policy Constraints: A Source