Myth of the Nuclear Revolution

A. Lieber Keir, G. Press Daryl

Description

Leading analysts have predicted for decades that nuclear weapons would help pacify international politics. The core notion is that countries protected by these fearsome weapons can stop competing so intensely with their adversaries: they can end their arms races, scale back their alliances, and stop jockeying for strategic territory. But rarely have theory and practice been so opposed. Why do international relations in the nuclear age remain so competitive? Indeed, why are today's major geopolitical rivalries intensifying?In The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution, Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press tackle the central puzzle of the nuclear age: the persistence of intense geopolitical competition in the shadow of nuclear weapons. They explain why the Cold War superpowers raced so feverishly against each other; why the creation of "mutual assured destruction" does not ensure peace; and why the rapid technological changes of the 21st century will weaken deterrence in critical hotspots around the world.By explaining how the nuclear revolution falls short, Lieber and Press discover answers to the most pressing questions about deterrence in the coming decades: how much capability is required for a reliable nuclear deterrent, how conventional conflicts may become nuclear wars, and how great care is required now to prevent new technology from ushering in an age of nuclear instability.

Sujets

• Histoire
• Military history
• 20th century
• Nuclear weapon

Informations

• Publié par: Cornell University Press
• Date de parution: 15 juin 2020
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781501749315
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 6 Mo

Extrait

The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution

a volum e in th e series

Cornell Studies in Security Affairs

Edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt

A list of titles in this series is available at cornellpress.cornell.edu.

The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution

Power Politics in the Atomic Age

K e i r A . L i e b e r a n d Da r y l G . P r e s s

Cornell University Press Ithaca and London

Copyright © 2020 by Cornell University

All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. Visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu.

First published 2020 by Cornell University Press

Printed in the United States of America

Library of Congress CataloginginPublication Data

Names: Lieber, Keir A. (Keir Alexander), 1970– author. | Press, Daryl  Grayson, author. Title: The myth of the nuclear revolution : power politics in the  atomic age / Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press. Description: Ithaca [New York] : Cornell University Press, 2020. |  Series: Cornell studies in security affairs | Includes bibliographical  references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2019046302 (print) | LCCN 2019046303 (ebook) |  ISBN 9781501749292 (cloth) | ISBN 9781501749308 (epub) |  ISBN 9781501749315 (pdf) Subjects: LCSH: Nuclear weapons—Political aspects. | Deterrence  (Strategy) | Arms race. | Balance of power. | World politics—1955– Classification: LCC JZ5665 .L54 2020 (print) | LCC JZ5665 (ebook) |  DDC 327.1/747—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019046302 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019046303

1. 2. 3. 4.

Contents

Acknowledgments

Introduction:The Nuclear Puzzle

Power Politics in the Nuclear Age

Gettting to Stalemate:How Much Is Enough?

Escaping Stalemate:The New Era of Counterforce

Deterrence under Stalemate:Conventional War and Nuclear Escalation

Conclusion:Solving the Nuclear Puzzle

Notes Index

v

vii

1 10 31 66

94 120

133 165

Acknowledgments

We are deeply grateful for the support and assistance we received while writ ing this book. Our terrific colleagues and students at Dartmouth College, Georgetown University, and the University of Notre Dame were invaluable sources of intellectual inspiration, research assistance, and constructive criticism. Our universities provided generous grants for travel, research, and writ ing. In particular, we thank the Center for Security Studies, the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, the Office of Research Services, and the Office of the Provost at Georgetown, as well as the Graduate School Office of Research, Institute for Scholarship in the Liberal Arts, and the Kroc Insti tute for International Peace Studies at Notre Dame. The financial support of several foundations and other organizations was also crucial for allowing us to complete this work. That included funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Project on Advanced Sys tems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction, and the Smith Richardson Foundation. An earlier version of chapter 3 (“Escaping Stalemate”) was published as Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, “The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and Future of Nuclear Deter rence,”International Security41, no. 4 (Spring 2017): 9–49; we are grateful to the journal for permission to use the material here. Over the years, we have presented our work at countless academic work shops and seminars, government offices, educational programs, think tanks, research institutes, military bases, defense universities, and conferences— both in the United States and abroad. We cannot thank by name every indi vidual who participated in, hosted, or discussed our work at those events,

vii

Acknowledgments

but your comments and criticisms were crucial for the development and clar ification of our arguments. One daylong workshop at the University of Chicago stands out, however, and not just because all such murder boards typically do. As colleagues from several universities gathered to tear apart every chapter of our manuscript, they realized and then slowly convinced us that our book, which we had framed far more narrowly, was actually a critique of the theory of the nu clear revolution—arguably the dominant model for understanding the role of nuclear weapons in international politics. We are deeply grateful to those colleagues for their time, insights, withering critiques, and enormously help ful advice. Which leads to a related topic: the role of friendship in academic research. It is the friendship of colleagues around the world that led so many of them to read, critique, and try to help us improve our work. And it is the friendship among coauthors that makes the long hours of writing, rewriting, tracking down arcane details and citations, and rewriting yet again not just bearable but worthwhile and fulfilling. We could not have completed this book, nor balanced our professional and personal lives with any hope of success, without our extraordinary spouses, Meredith Bowers and Jennifer Lind. Occasional eye rolls notwithstanding, their support, patience, and encouragement inspired us every step of the way. We also thank, again, those who supported us from the beginning: Nancy and Robert Lieber, James and Grace Press, and Susan and Joel Bowers. We dedicate this book to our amazing children: Sophie, Isabel, Lucy, and Delilah Lieber, and Eleanor and Ian Press. Scholars of nuclear deterrence often close such dedications by hoping that their kids might someday live in a world without these horribly destructive weapons. We take a different view. We hope that our children, whom we love more than anything, live in a world in which careful scholarship and smart policies minimize the terror inherent in these weapons while maximizing the prospects for an enduring nuclear peace.

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The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution