Facing the Fold

A Ogilvy James

Description

Scenario planning brought up to date with case studies and a series of essential essays from one of its foremost exponents: Jay Ogilvy.

Sujets

• Sociologie, société et politique
• Service innovation

Informations

• Publié par: Triarchy Press
• Date de parution: 28 février 2011
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781908009883
• Langue: English

Extrait

Published by: Triarchy Press Station Offices Axminster Devon. EX13 5PF United Kingdom
[phone] [e-mail] www.triarchypress.com
James Ogilvy 2011
The right of James Ogilvy to be identified as the author of this book has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988.
All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means including photocopying, electronic, mechanical, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Cover design and image by Heather Fallows - www.whitespacegallery.org.uk
Print ISBN: 978-1-908009-22-7
Epub ISBN: 978-1-908009-88-3
Kindle ISBN: 978-1-908009-89-0
Contents
Acknowledgements
Facing the Fold
Section I: Scenario Planning: What, Why, and How
1.   Plotting Your Scenarios
1 Finding a Few Plots
2 Fleshing Out the Scenario Plots
3 Ten Tips for Successful Scenarios
2.   Scenario Planning: Art or Science?
Part I: What’s wrong with regarding scenario planning as only an art?
Part II: How does scenario planning differ from predict-and-control, monological science?
Part III: Scenario Planning and A New Kind of Science
Part IV: Art and Ethics—the Aesthetics of Normative Scenarios
3.   Equity and Equality: Education in the Information Age
Part I: Implementing Scenario Planning
Part II: A Declaration of Educational Equity
Part III: Putting Information Era Content into Scenario Form
Section II: Scenario Planning in Context
4.   Future Studies and the Human Sciences:
1.  The Emergent Paradigm in the Human Sciences
2a. Anthropology: From Explanation by Law to a Semiotic Discipline
2b. Implications of New Anthropology for Future Studies
3a. Literary Criticism and the Legacy of Existentialism
3b. The Import of Recent Literary Criticism for Future Studies
4a. The Import of Psychology for the Emergent Paradigm
4b. Import of Object Relations Psychology for Future Studies
5a. From Critical Theory to Existential Sociology
5b. Import of Existential Sociology for Future Studies
6.  Toward an Emergent Paradigm
7.  A New Look at Norms
8.  Earth Might Be Fair… A Normative Scenario
5.   Scenario Planning as the Fulfillment of Critical Theory
Part I. The Dilemmas of Critical Theory
Part II. Unraveling the dilemmas of critical theory
Part III. Scenario Planning and the role of Hope
6.   What Business Strategists Have to Learn from Sartre
7.   Organizational Learning, Evolution, and Scenarios
1.  Stories, Heritability, and Institutional Memory
2.  Evolutionary Theory and Scenario Planning
3.  Lessons for Organizational Learning
Section III: Case Studies and Examples 193
8.   Mapping Scenario Planning in the Public and Private Sectors: Lessons from regional projects
Regions of Experience
Lessons Applied: Scenarios for the future of California’s Central Valley
9.   Three Scenarios for Higher Education in California
PART ONE: The Problem and a Method for its Solution
PART TWO: Key Factors and Driving Trends
PART THREE: Scenarios
Scenario One: Software Landing
Scenario Two: Education Inc.
Scenario Three: The New Educational Order
PART FOUR: Conclusions
Afterword
10. Four Scenarios for the Future of Public Education in Seattle
Part One: The Scenario Method
Part Two: Predetermined Elements
Part Three: Critical Uncertainties
Part Four: Scenarios
Part Five: Implications
For Peter Schwartz
Acknowledgements
Since my very first introduction to scenario planning over thirty years ago, so many people have taught me so much. I learned most, I am sure, from Peter Schwartz, to whom this book is dedicated. Peter has been a marvelous guide, an inspiring teacher, and a very good friend. I cannot thank him enough.
But of course there have been others, not least the great guru of scenario planning, Pierre Wack. On one of my first visits to California in 1978, I had the great pleasure of taking a 3-day road trip to northern California in the company of Peter and Pierre. We stayed at a little cabin owned by Paul Hawken, with whom Peter and I were then writing the book, Seven Tomorrows . I’m grateful to Paul for more than his cabin.
The team I joined that Peter led at SRI contained other inspiring colleagues and teachers: Arnold Mitchell, Willis Harman, Don Michael, Ian Wilson, Vic Walling, O. W. Markley, Dick Carlson, Marie Spengler, and Tom Mandel. When, in 1981, Peter left SRI to head up the scenario team at Shell, I then had an opportunity to work with some of their best: Ted Newland, Arie de Geus, Napier Collyns, and Ged Davis.
After Peter left Shell and I left SRI, Peter and I reached out to Napier Collyns, Stewart Brand, and Lawrence Wilkinson to create Global Business Network. What a marvelous set of partners with whom to build a company, and a network! Over the years since 1987, when the five of us sorted through our rolodexes to come up with candidates for the network, it has been such a pleasure to work with and become friends with many of our network members. I call out particularly and alphabetically: John Perry Barlow, Mary Catherine Bateson, Raimondo Boggia, Albert Bressand, Denise Caruso, Esther Dyson, Bo Ekman, Brian Eno, Betty Sue Flowers, Francis Fukuyama, Robert Fuller, John Gage, Joel Garreau, Charles Hampden-Turner, David Harris, Danny Hillis, Robert Horn, Chuck House, Adam Kahane, John Kao, Kevin Kelly, Art Kleiner, Jaron Lanier, Amory Lovins, John McIntire, Michael Maccoby, Irving Mintzer, Ian Mitroff, Michael Murphy, Maureen O’Hara, John Petersen, Nancy Ramsey, Howard Rheingold, Chris Riley, Richard Rodriguez, Paul Saffo, Orville Schell, Lee Schipper, Michael Schrage, Rusty Schweickart, David Sibbet, Alex Singer, Gary Snyder, Bruce Sterling, Hirotaka Takeuchi, Hardin Tibbs, Sherry Turkle, Kees van der Heijden, Heinrich Vogel, Steven Weber, and Michael Zielenziger.
Then there’s the amazing group of colleagues at GBN—such a pleasure to work with. Erik Smith co-authored one of the papers in this volume. I’ve enjoyed project work and co-teaching scenario planning with Eamonn Kelly, Gerald Harris, Susan Stickley, Chris Ertel, Jonathan Star, Matt Ranen, Stewart Henshall, and Don Derosby. I want also to thank Lynn Carruthers, our talented graphic recorder, for the help she’s provided on a number of projects. Thanks also to Katherine Fulton, Jenny Collins and Nancy Murphy, all long-standing and strong pillars of GBN. For sheer fun, though, a tip’o’the hat to The Green Team: Eric Best and Ben Fuller. Remember Rio?
In recent years I’ve had the good fortune to get help on scenario planning projects from several independent consultants, Bram Briggance and Tom Portante. I also want to thank my colleague at Presidio Graduate School, Teddy Zmrhal, with whom I’ve enjoyed co-teaching for the past several years.
It’s been my good fortune to have good clients who became good friends: Peter Arum of the National Education Association, Jack Huber at BellSouth, Tom Davis at Motorola, Carl Lehmann at American Express, Jeremy Seligman at Ford, Matt Bencke at Microsoft, and my colleagues in Japan, Noboru Konno and Jiro Nonaka.
Thanks to those with whom I’ve had the opportunity to tilt at the windmills of health care reform: Will Straub, David Reynolds, Ann Monroe, Laura Likely, Elliott Fisher, Don Berwick, John Sterman, Peter Senge, and the rest of the team at Re>Think Health.
I want to thank Tim Mack, editor of Futures Research Quarterly and Riel Miller of the OECD for soliciting several of the following papers. And special thanks to Alfonso Montouri for encouraging me to pull these several papers together to create this volume.
Finally I want to thank the good people at Triarchy Press. My editor, Alison Melvin, has been a pleasure to work with. Thanks also to Matthew Fairtlough, who is the son of the late Gerard Fairtlough, founder of Triarchy Press, former GBN Network Member, good friend, and much missed.
Facing the Fold
From the Eclipse of Utopia To the Restoration of Hope
Been down so long it looks like up? Does the prospect of a double dip cloud your future? Just as many of us could see nothing but boundless growth during the go-go years of the late 1990s, so have many fallen into a pessimistic slough following the last two years of economic woe.
Some might like to reach for good old cyclicality as a rationale for recovery. “What goes up must come down; what goes down must come back up.” But I’d like to reach even higher: toward those good old utopias.
We lost something when we hurled utopian thinking into the dustbin of history. And hurled it we have. Too bad! For utopian thinking had its moments. To the extent that various utopias, from Plato’s Republic to the works of Thomas More and Samuel Butler, allowed their readers to lift their sights from a miserable present toward a better future, to just that extent those utopian fantasies provided hope.
When Ernst Bloch wrote the three volumes of The Principle of Hope he was opening an imaginative space for fantasy, clearing the ground for imagination and creativity. His Spirit of Utopia wasn’t handing down a recipe for perfecting humanity in perfect dwellings in perfect cities. When Barack Obama advertises the Audacity of Hope, he isn’t pressing for the perfection of human nature.
I want to hold on to the aspirational aspect of utopian thinking by liberating it from the debilitating stain of perfection. I want to lay out a case for optimism by linking it, paradoxically, to pessimism. Precisely by paying attention to prospects for disaster—nuclear, biological, or environmental—I want to clear a space for a scenaric stance that holds best case and worst case scenarios in mind at once. This is the way to face our unpredictable future responsibly. This is the way to grapple with uncertainty and act nonetheless