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DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE Looking beyond 2021 © PA Knowledge Ltd. | November 2018 CONTENTS FOREWORD INTRODUCTION THIS YEAR’S RANKINGS– TIME IS RUNNING OUT HOW CAR MAKERS PERFORM– A VARIETY OF STRATEGIES WHAT CAR MAKERS CAN DO– THE NEXT THREE YEARS WHAT CAR MAKERS CAN DO– THE MEDIUM TERM THE COUNTRY RESULTS– NORWAY STILL LEADS THE WAY MAKING PROGRESS BUT MORE TO DO METHODOLOGY 3 5 10 13 28 32 36 38 40 FOREWORD For many years, car making was a stable business that experienced incremental changes in technology and markets but where the fundamentals remained the same. All that has changed. Manufacturers need to manage significant technological, commercial, market and political developments like autonomous driving, new mobility platforms, connectivity, customer demand for low emission vehicles and Brexit. Legislation and regulation are also playing an important part, with minds increasingly focused on the European Union (EU) 2021 CO₂ emissions targets. That means car makers face some diicult choices about their future direction. As our latest analysis shows, some car makers have got their strategy right and will meet their targets easily, but others have woken up too DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 2021 late and will struggle.

Sujets

• Pollution
• Automobile

Informations

• Publié par: Le_Parisien
• Publié le: 08 avril 2019
• Nombre de lectures: 1 545
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 6 Mo

Extrait

DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE

Looking beyond 2021

© PA Knowledge Ltd | November 

CONTENTS

FOREWORD

INTRODUCTION

THIS YEAR’S RANKINGS– TIME IS RUNNING OUT

HOW CAR MAKERS PERFORM– A VARIETY OF STRATEGIES

WHAT CAR MAKERS CAN DO– THE NEXT THREE YEARS

WHAT CAR MAKERS CAN DO– THE MEDIUM TERM

THE COUNTRY RESULTS– NORWAY STILL LEADS THE WAY

MAKING PROGRESS BUT MORE TO DO

METHODOLOGY

3

5

10

13

28

32

36

38

40

FOREWORD

For many years car makîng was a stable

busîness that experîenced încremental changes

în technology and markets but where the

undamentals remaîned the same All that

has changed Manuacturers need to manage sîgnîficant technologîcal commercîal market and polîtîcal developments lîke autonomous drîvîng new mobîlîty platorms connectîvîty customer demand or low emîssîon vehîcles and Brexît

Legîslatîon and regulatîon are also playîng an

împortant part wîth mînds încreasîngly ocused

on the European Unîon (EU)  CO₂ emîssîons

targets That means car makers ace some

dîicult choîces about theîr uture dîrectîon

As our latest analysîs shows some car makers

have got theîr strategy rîght and wîll meet theîr

targets easîly but others have woken up too

DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 

late and wîll struggle Whîle many o these late

rîsers have plans or new low emîssîon models

ît wîll be hard or them to împlement theîr plans

ast enough în the next three years to make a

real dîference în meetîng theîr targets Those

companîes at rîsk o mîssîng theîr targets wîll

need to prîorîtîse the sellîng marketîng and

prîcîng o these vehîcles to counter negatîve

perceptîons în the market

Yet ît would be a mîstake to let the ocus on

 obscure the challenges urther ahead The

EU îs debatîng îts next set o emîssîons targets

or  and  and these wîll be even more

demandîng The European automotîve îndustry

învests close to  bîllîon Euros în research and

development annually a large percentage o

whîch goes towards uel-eicîency technologîes





DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 

Car makers wîll have to be very clear about the

kînd o strategy and technology they wîll need to

învest în to meet those uture targets recognîsîng

that even today’s wînners could struggle

Movîng rom înternal combustîon engînes to new

powertraîn technologîes wîll not be easy and

wîll requîre dîferent technîcal and commercîal

approaches It wîll be expensîve and complex

but the automotîve îndustry has a good track

record o înnovatîon New technology not least

în batterîes îs developîng ast Wîth the rîght

strategy manuacturers can come out wînners

We have deep expertîse helpîng automotîve

companîes combîne strategy technology and înnovatîon to go urther aster We draw on our rîch hîstory o îngenîous thînkîng as we work sîde-by-sîde wîth îndustry partners For us the

© PA Knowledge Ltd | November 

challenge goes beyond meetîng complîance standards

It’s about buîldîng a posîtîve human uture by

reducîng emîssîons We’re energîsed by the

îmmensîty o the challenge at hand And we

have every reason to belîeve that the automotîve

sector wîll succeed în provîdîng consumers wîth

the new and attractîve products that meet uture

emîssîons requîrements

MICHAEL SCHWEIKL PA automotîve expert

mîchael.schweîkl@paconsultîng.com

[phone]

INTRODUCTION

EU CO₂ emîssîons regulatîons are the most strîngent în the world Each car maker has a specîfic target or theîr regîstered car fleet în  The aîm îs to have a European average o  grams o CO₂ per kîlometre

Car makers ace penaltîes o  or every gram o CO₂ they are above

theîr lîmît multîplîed by the number o cars they regîstered în the EU în

the prevîous year In contrast Chîna has targets o gkm Japan g

km and the US gkm all to be reached by 

DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 







JC 08

WLTP



© PA Knowledge Ltd | November 

NEDC

WLTP / RDE

China









FTP 75

USA

Europe

Current emîssîon test

Planned emîssîon test

Implementatîon WLTP

DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 

July 2020 RDE starts în July 2023

Japan

Start în 2018 Fully complîant 2022













No împlementatîon planned

NEDC

WLTP / RDE

Start în 09/17 Fully complîant 2020















CO₂ targets [g/km]

 











Fîgure 1. Internatîonal comparîson o test cycles

 





Assumptîon  amount o tested CO rom NEDC to WLTP 



Note: ICCT îs source or CO₂ values per car normalîsed on NEDC (USA, Japan) and EU 2025/30 Sources or convertîng actor o +20% rom NEDC to WLTP: 1. European Commîssîon Report 2017: “From NEDC to WLTP: efect on the type-approval CO₂ emîssîons o lîght-duty vehîcles”; 2. VDA 12/2016 “Posîtîon zur Umstellung von CO₂ basîerten Steuer-/Incentîve-Systemen au WLTP”, 3. ICCT 01/2018 “The European Commîssîon regulatory proposal or post-2020 CO₂ targets or cars and vans: A summary and evaluatîon”; 4. PA sîmulatîon 2018 based on vehîcle portolîo 2021 and adjustîng actor accordîng to European Commîssîon Report (1)

FTP 75

The îndustry îs also acîng a range o other challenges such as the development o autonomous cars încreasîng demand or connected cars and the prospect o cîty bans or

înternal combustîon engînes Then there’s the

dramatîc declîne o dîesel and the boom în SUV

sales meanîng there are more heavy cars on the

road încreasîng emîssîons

Lookîng urther ahead there wîll also be

challenges when changes to emîssîons testîng

come înto orce or regulatory purposes

DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 

The new Worldwîde Harmonîsed Lîght Vehîcle

test procedure (WLTP) measures emîssîons

durîng a more demandîng drîve cycle

The laboratory test îs closer to actual drîvîng

condîtîons and uses real drîvîng data to reînorce

results The test wîll be the basîs or EU emîssîons

targets în  and  Our analysîs suggests

WLTP wîll mean car makers show an average

încrease to CO₂ emîssîons o  per cent





DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 

CRITERIA

Duratîon

Dîstance

Mean velocîty

Maxîmum velocîty

Stop phases

UNITS

s

km

km/h

km/h

no.

NEDC

1180

11.03

33.6

120.0

14

WLTP

1800

23.27

46.5

131.3

9

Fîgure 2. Key dîferences between Europe’s current and uture test cycles

Thîs îs the ourth year we have assessed car makers’ perormance and the lîkelîhood that they wîll meet theîr  targets Thîs year’s rankîngs show small changes agaîn wîth eîght out o the thîrteen car markers orecasted to mîss theîr targets though some are gettîng closer by acceleratîng towards theîr  targets relatîve to how ast they’ve gone în prevîous years

© PA Knowledge Ltd | November 

Deceleratîon 178

Acceleratîon 247

NEDC

Stop 280

Constant drîvîng 475

DURATION BREAKDOWN

The realîty îs that gîven the proxîmîty o the  deadlîne and the lead-tîme needed to împlement technîcal changes there’s lîttle they can do în tîme However car makers are already at work on technîcal upgrades to meet the  and  targets

Deceleratîon 719

Stop 226

WLTP

Constant drîvîng 66

Acceleratîon 789

So or now they’re essentîally runnîng two parallel processes workîng to buîld market share or new low emîssîon models beore  whîle învestîng în the technology needed to meet uture regulatîons untîl 

INPUTS

Fleet weight

Registrations

CO emissions by car segment and powertrain type

Distribution by car segment and powertrain type

Engine improving rate

Powertrain CO saving potential vs gasoline

Legend

OEM-specific input

SIMULATION

OEM non-specific input

OUTPUTS

Target

DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 

DEVIATION

CO fleet emission (three scenarios)

OEM output

fîûe 3. Our benchmarkîng model îs based on varîous înputs and înorm three scenarîos



10

DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 

THIS YEAR’S RANKINGS TIME IS RUNNING OUT

Our unîque method o benchmarkîng examînes manuacturers’ perormance agaînst theîr specîfic targets and evaluates the gap car makers wîll need to close by 2021.

Our orecasts are made up o an assessment o each manuacturer’s capabîlîty to reduce average fleet weîght as well as to enhance theîr electrîfied portolîo. We also make orecasts o the number o regîstratîons o each type o car (dîesel, petrol, dîferent types o hybrîd and battery electrîc) to determîne the extent o each manuacturer’s sales o lower emîssîon vehîcles.

© Ā Kôéé . | ôéé 2018

Thîs year, we have looked at sales o these vehîcles by vehîcle segment (rom small to luxury cars) whîch has helped us make our orecasts more accurate. We then put thîs data together to develop our orecasts o average CO₂ (g/km) emîssîons în 2021.

We have also added orecasts or Mazda and Honda. A urther development în our work has been to provîde addîtîonal scenarîos whîch show a range o perormance based on optîmîstîc or pessîmîstîc assumptîons about the number o alternatîve vehîcles sold.

Thîs year’s results show small changes în the rankîngs. Toyota îs now at the top o the table ollowed by Renault-Nîssan-Mîtsubîshî and Volvo. However, eîght out o the thîrteen manuacturers wîll mîss theîr targets, although Daîmler and BMW have împroved theîr perormance and are gettîng closer to complyîng.

*rank on 2021 orecast **data rom ICCT 2017 ***based on actual data untîl 2017 (ICCT) and PA orecast estîmatîon

128

120

1

84.9

Toyota

5

PSA

93

100

106

Volvo

3

95.4

127.3

121.5

122

127.7

121

120

112

131.2

3.6

124.3

-1.1

2.6

-2.7

-13

-8

Mazda

7

3.2

122

-4.4

Ford

9

95.1

6.7

2017

6.5

4.1

103



5.1

90.7

-6.4

13

Jaguar-Land-Rover

1.8

151.4

3.6

9.7

ACTUAL DATA (g CO₂/km)** (g CO₂/km )**

(g CO₂/km )*****

150

Fîgure 4. How car makers rank on CO emîssîons 2

1.9

136.6

> 2

Daimler

6

< 0

3.8

0-2

4.4

2

11

12

BMW

-0.5

2021 FORECAST

2021 TARGET

98.1

93.7

92.1

94.8

106.7

96.1

95.6

95.5

96.6

94

94.9

91.8

97.7

102.4

104.6

102.8

101.5

104.4

98.5

99.8

DEVIATION

-0.9

DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 

2021 CONSERVATIVE FORECAST

(g CO₂/km )

97.1

101.9

5.6

DEVIATION

112

3.3

126.9

111.2

124.7

110.4

RANK* CAR MAKER

105.5

2016

6

Hyundai-Kia

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi

2

122

2.1

4

Honda

120

Volkswagen

10

8

125.3

122.9

120.4

Fiat-Chrysler (FCA)

87.1

130.1

130.6

127

101.6

92.9

93.6

92.3

-4.3

-16.2

-5.9

93.9

100.3

98.5

0.6

88.9

2021 AGGRESSIVE FORECAST

DEVIATION

-10.2

90.5

-2.6

98.3

100.5

3.5

95.3

0.3

2.9

0.4

98

97.6

-1.1

103.3

101.5

-1.2

106.1

95.3

-1.9