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DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE Looking beyond 2021 © PA Knowledge Ltd. | November 2018 CONTENTS FOREWORD INTRODUCTION THIS YEAR’S RANKINGS– TIME IS RUNNING OUT HOW CAR MAKERS PERFORM– A VARIETY OF STRATEGIES WHAT CAR MAKERS CAN DO– THE NEXT THREE YEARS WHAT CAR MAKERS CAN DO– THE MEDIUM TERM THE COUNTRY RESULTS– NORWAY STILL LEADS THE WAY MAKING PROGRESS BUT MORE TO DO METHODOLOGY 3 5 10 13 28 32 36 38 40 FOREWORD For many years, car making was a stable business that experienced incremental changes in technology and markets but where the fundamentals remained the same. All that has changed. Manufacturers need to manage significant technological, commercial, market and political developments like autonomous driving, new mobility platforms, connectivity, customer demand for low emission vehicles and Brexit. Legislation and regulation are also playing an important part, with minds increasingly focused on the European Union (EU) 2021 CO₂ emissions targets. That means car makers face some diicult choices about their future direction. As our latest analysis shows, some car makers have got their strategy right and will meet their targets easily, but others have woken up too DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 2021 late and will struggle.

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Publié par
Ajouté le 08 avril 2019
Nombre de lectures 1 490
Langue English
Signaler un problème
DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE
Looking beyond 2021
© PA Knowledge Ltd | November 
CONTENTS
FOREWORD
INTRODUCTION
THIS YEAR’S RANKINGS– TIME IS RUNNING OUT
HOW CAR MAKERS PERFORM– A VARIETY OF STRATEGIES
WHAT CAR MAKERS CAN DO– THE NEXT THREE YEARS
WHAT CAR MAKERS CAN DO– THE MEDIUM TERM
THE COUNTRY RESULTS– NORWAY STILL LEADS THE WAY
MAKING PROGRESS BUT MORE TO DO
METHODOLOGY
3
5
10
13
28
32
36
38
40
FOREWORD
For many years car makîng was a stable
busîness that experîenced încremental changes
în technology and markets but where the
undamentals remaîned the same All that
has changed Manuacturers need to manage sîgnîficant technologîcal commercîal market and polîtîcal developments lîke autonomous drîvîng new mobîlîty platorms connectîvîty customer demand or low emîssîon vehîcles and Brexît
Legîslatîon and regulatîon are also playîng an
împortant part wîth mînds încreasîngly ocused
on the European Unîon (EU)  CO₂ emîssîons
targets That means car makers ace some
dîicult choîces about theîr uture dîrectîon
As our latest analysîs shows some car makers
have got theîr strategy rîght and wîll meet theîr
targets easîly but others have woken up too
DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 
late and wîll struggle Whîle many o these late
rîsers have plans or new low emîssîon models
ît wîll be hard or them to împlement theîr plans
ast enough în the next three years to make a
real dîference în meetîng theîr targets Those
companîes at rîsk o mîssîng theîr targets wîll
need to prîorîtîse the sellîng marketîng and
prîcîng o these vehîcles to counter negatîve
perceptîons în the market
Yet ît would be a mîstake to let the ocus on
 obscure the challenges urther ahead The
EU îs debatîng îts next set o emîssîons targets
or  and  and these wîll be even more
demandîng The European automotîve îndustry
învests close to  bîllîon Euros în research and
development annually a large percentage o
whîch goes towards uel-eicîency technologîes
DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 
Car makers wîll have to be very clear about the
kînd o strategy and technology they wîll need to
învest în to meet those uture targets recognîsîng
that even today’s wînners could struggle
Movîng rom înternal combustîon engînes to new
powertraîn technologîes wîll not be easy and
wîll requîre dîferent technîcal and commercîal
approaches It wîll be expensîve and complex
but the automotîve îndustry has a good track
record o înnovatîon New technology not least
în batterîes îs developîng ast Wîth the rîght
strategy manuacturers can come out wînners
We have deep expertîse helpîng automotîve
companîes combîne strategy technology and înnovatîon to go urther aster We draw on our rîch hîstory o îngenîous thînkîng as we work sîde-by-sîde wîth îndustry partners For us the
© PA Knowledge Ltd | November 
challenge goes beyond meetîng complîance standards
It’s about buîldîng a posîtîve human uture by
reducîng emîssîons We’re energîsed by the
îmmensîty o the challenge at hand And we
have every reason to belîeve that the automotîve
sector wîll succeed în provîdîng consumers wîth
the new and attractîve products that meet uture
emîssîons requîrements
MICHAEL SCHWEIKL PA automotîve expert
mîchael.schweîkl@paconsultîng.com
+49 69 71702 363
INTRODUCTION
EU CO₂ emîssîons regulatîons are the most strîngent în the world Each car maker has a specîfic target or theîr regîstered car fleet în  The aîm îs to have a European average o  grams o CO₂ per kîlometre
Car makers ace penaltîes o  or every gram o CO₂ they are above
theîr lîmît multîplîed by the number o cars they regîstered în the EU în
the prevîous year In contrast Chîna has targets o gkm Japan g
km and the US gkm all to be reached by 
DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 


JC 08
WLTP

© PA Knowledge Ltd | November 
NEDC
WLTP / RDE
China




FTP 75
USA
Europe
Current emîssîon test
Planned emîssîon test
Implementatîon WLTP
DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 
July 2020 RDE starts în July 2023
Japan
Start în 2018 Fully complîant 2022





No împlementatîon planned
NEDC
WLTP / RDE
Start în 09/17 Fully complîant 2020







CO₂ targets [g/km]
 





Fîgure 1. Internatîonal comparîson o test cycles
 


Assumptîon  amount o tested CO rom NEDC to WLTP

Note: ICCT îs source or CO₂ values per car normalîsed on NEDC (USA, Japan) and EU 2025/30 Sources or convertîng actor o +20% rom NEDC to WLTP: 1. European Commîssîon Report 2017: “From NEDC to WLTP: efect on the type-approval CO₂ emîssîons o lîght-duty vehîcles”; 2. VDA 12/2016 “Posîtîon zur Umstellung von CO₂ basîerten Steuer-/Incentîve-Systemen au WLTP”, 3. ICCT 01/2018 “The European Commîssîon regulatory proposal or post-2020 CO₂ targets or cars and vans: A summary and evaluatîon”; 4. PA sîmulatîon 2018 based on vehîcle portolîo 2021 and adjustîng actor accordîng to European Commîssîon Report (1)
FTP 75
The îndustry îs also acîng a range o other challenges such as the development o autonomous cars încreasîng demand or connected cars and the prospect o cîty bans or
înternal combustîon engînes Then there’s the
dramatîc declîne o dîesel and the boom în SUV
sales meanîng there are more heavy cars on the
road încreasîng emîssîons
Lookîng urther ahead there wîll also be
challenges when changes to emîssîons testîng
come înto orce or regulatory purposes
DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 
The new Worldwîde Harmonîsed Lîght Vehîcle
test procedure (WLTP) measures emîssîons
durîng a more demandîng drîve cycle
The laboratory test îs closer to actual drîvîng
condîtîons and uses real drîvîng data to reînorce
results The test wîll be the basîs or EU emîssîons
targets în  and  Our analysîs suggests
WLTP wîll mean car makers show an average
încrease to CO₂ emîssîons o  per cent
DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 
CRITERIA
Duratîon
Dîstance
Mean velocîty
Maxîmum velocîty
Stop phases
UNITS
s
km
km/h
km/h
no.
NEDC
1180
11.03
33.6
120.0
14
WLTP
1800
23.27
46.5
131.3
9
Fîgure 2. Key dîferences between Europe’s current and uture test cycles
Thîs îs the ourth year we have assessed car makers’ perormance and the lîkelîhood that they wîll meet theîr  targets Thîs year’s rankîngs show small changes agaîn wîth eîght out o the thîrteen car markers orecasted to mîss theîr targets though some are gettîng closer by acceleratîng towards theîr  targets relatîve to how ast they’ve gone în prevîous years
© PA Knowledge Ltd | November 
Deceleratîon 178
Acceleratîon 247
NEDC
Stop 280
Constant drîvîng 475
DURATION BREAKDOWN
The realîty îs that gîven the proxîmîty o the  deadlîne and the lead-tîme needed to împlement technîcal changes there’s lîttle they can do în tîme However car makers are already at work on technîcal upgrades to meet the  and  targets
Deceleratîon 719
Stop 226
WLTP
Constant drîvîng 66
Acceleratîon 789
So or now they’re essentîally runnîng two parallel processes workîng to buîld market share or new low emîssîon models beore  whîle învestîng în the technology needed to meet uture regulatîons untîl 
INPUTS
Fleet weight
Registrations
CO emissions by car segment and powertrain type
Distribution by car segment and powertrain type
Engine improving rate
Powertrain CO saving potential vs gasoline
Legend
OEM-specific input
SIMULATION
OEM non-specific input
OUTPUTS
Target
DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 
DEVIATION
CO fleet emission (three scenarios)
OEM output
fîûe 3. Our benchmarkîng model îs based on varîous înputs and înorm three scenarîos
10
DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 
THIS YEAR’S RANKINGSTIME IS RUNNING OUT
Our unîque method o benchmarkîng examînes manuacturers’ perormance agaînst theîr specîfic targets and evaluates the gap car makers wîll need to close by 2021.
Our orecasts are made up o an assessment o each manuacturer’s capabîlîty to reduce average fleet weîght as well as to enhance theîr electrîfied portolîo. We also make orecasts o the number o regîstratîons o each type o car (dîesel, petrol, dîferent types o hybrîd and battery electrîc) to determîne the extent o each manuacturer’s sales o lower emîssîon vehîcles.
© Ā Kôéé . | ôéé 2018
Thîs year, we have looked at sales o these vehîcles by vehîcle segment (rom small to luxury cars) whîch has helped us make our orecasts more accurate. We then put thîs data together to develop our orecasts o average CO₂ (g/km) emîssîons în 2021.
We have also added orecasts or Mazda and Honda. A urther development în our work has been to provîde addîtîonal scenarîos whîch show a range o perormance based on optîmîstîc or pessîmîstîc assumptîons about the number o alternatîve vehîcles sold.
Thîs year’s results show small changes în the rankîngs. Toyota îs now at the top o the table ollowed by Renault-Nîssan-Mîtsubîshî and Volvo. However, eîght out o the thîrteen manuacturers wîll mîss theîr targets, although Daîmler and BMW have împroved theîr perormance and are gettîng closer to complyîng.
*rank on 2021 orecast **data rom ICCT 2017 ***based on actual data untîl 2017 (ICCT) and PA orecast estîmatîon
128
120
1
84.9
Toyota
5
PSA
93
100
106
Volvo
3
95.4
127.3
121.5
122
127.7
121
120
112
131.2
3.6
124.3
-1.1
2.6
-2.7
-13
-8
Mazda
7
3.2
122
-4.4
Ford
9
95.1
6.7
2017
6.5
4.1
103

5.1
90.7
-6.4
13
Jaguar-Land-Rover
1.8
151.4
3.6
9.7
ACTUAL DATA(g CO₂/km)** (g CO₂/km)**
(g CO₂/km)*****
150
Fîgure 4. How car makers rank on CO emîssîons 2
1.9
136.6
> 2
Daimler
6
< 0
3.8
0-2
4.4
2
11
12
BMW
-0.5
2021 FORECAST
2021 TARGET
98.1
93.7
92.1
94.8
106.7
96.1
95.6
95.5
96.6
94
94.9
91.8
97.7
102.4
104.6
102.8
101.5
104.4
98.5
99.8
DEVIATION
-0.9
DRIVING INTO A LOW EMISSIONS FUTURE – LOOKING BEYOND 
2021 CONSERVATIVE FORECAST
(g CO₂/km)
97.1
101.9
5.6
DEVIATION
112
3.3
126.9
111.2
124.7
110.4
RANK* CAR MAKER
105.5
2016
6
Hyundai-Kia
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi
2
122
2.1
4
Honda
120
Volkswagen
10
8
125.3
122.9
120.4
Fiat-Chrysler (FCA)
87.1
130.1
130.6
127
101.6
92.9
93.6
92.3
-4.3
-16.2
-5.9
93.9
100.3
98.5
0.6
88.9
2021 AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
DEVIATION
-10.2
90.5
-2.6
98.3
100.5
3.5
95.3
0.3
2.9
0.4
98
97.6
-1.1
103.3
101.5
-1.2
106.1
95.3
-1.9