The Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition published its new Report, Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century on the 23rd September 2016.
Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century
September 2016
Food systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century
his report includes important recommendations and advice for leaders at te most senior levels in countries and international organizations. It is also of direct relevance to all policy makers, decision makers, professionals, business people, experts and researcers wit interests in food systems and diets. Many of tese individuals will be directly concerned wit te production, processing, trade, regulation, supply and safety of food. However, oters may work in wider areas of policy and business, for example relating to: public ealt and well-being, mental ealt development, education, economic development, urbanization, globalization and demograpy.
Food systems and diets: Facing te callenges of te 21st century3
his report may be freely reproduced, in wole or in part, provided te original source is acknowledged. his publication is a product of te Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition and was autored by te Foresigt Project’s Lead Expert Group, supported by te Panel Secretariat. his publication was peer reviewed. he findings, interpretations, conclusions, advice and recommendations expressed in tis work do not necessarily reflect te views of te organizations or te governments te Global Panel members represent.
ISBN 978-0-9956228-0-7
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Global Panel members:
Jon Kufuor,(Co-Cair) Former President of Gana
José Graziano da Silva,Director General, Food and Agriculture Organization of te United Nations (FAO)
Roda Peace Tumusiime, Commissioner for Rural Economy and Agriculture, African Union Commission
Sir Jon Beddington, (Co-Cair) Former UK Government Cief Scientific Adviser
Agnes Kalibata,President, Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA)
Srinat Reddy,President, Public Healt Foundation of India
Akinwumi Adesina, President, African Development Bank (AfDB)
Racel Kyte,Special Representative of te UN Secretary General for Sustainable Energy; and CEO of Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All)
Emmy Simmons,Board Member, Partnersip to Cut Hunger and Poverty in Africa/AGree
Tom Arnold,Director General, Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA)
he Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition commissioned tis Foresigt report in 2015 to take a close look at te extent to wic food systems are delivering ealty diets today and to assess weter tey are fit for te future.
Wile te focus as been on low- and middle-income countries, te findings constitute a stark warning for all countries. Despite past progress, approximately 3 billion people across te globe now ave low-quality diets. Nearly a quarter of all cildren under five years of age are stunted, more tan 2 billion people ave insufficient micronutrients and te incidence of overweigt and obesity is growing in every region. As a result, many economies are seriously underperforming, and diet-related cronic diseases are placing ever-greater demands on ealt care systems. Moreover, te situation is set to worsen dramatically over te next 20 years as powerful drivers of cange suc as population growt, climate cange and urbanization converge on food systems.
his report sows tat unless policy makers act decisively to control overweigt, obesity and diet-related disease and accelerate efforts to reduce undernutrition, all countries will pay a eavy price in terms of mortality, pysical ealt, mental well-being, economic losses and degradation of te environment. he stark message to world leaders is tat only a response on te scale and commitment used to tackle HIV/AIDS and malaria will be sufficient to meet te callenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. It is also essential tat te public and private sectors work togeter to acieve tis.
his report sows ow tese considerable callenges can be addressed. In particular, food systems needto be arnessed so tat tey nouris rater tan merely feed people. his alone will open up countless opportunities for interventions tat decision makers can tailor to specific situations. he report also sets out clear priorities for action at national and international levels, as well as detailed advice and guidance, wic will be of practical and immediate use to decision makers.
On bealf of te Global Panel, we would like to take tis opportunity to express our sincere tanks to teBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and te UK Department for International Development wo togeter ave funded tis groundbreaking study. We would also like to tank te group of leading experts, caired by Professor Lawrence Haddad, wo undertook muc of te work and drafted tis report, te many oter experts and policy makers from across te world wo contributed, and te team at te Global Panel Secretariat wo managed te entire process.
Jon Kufuor (Co-Cair) Former President of Gana
Sir Jon Beddington (Co-Cair) Former UK Government Cief Scientific Adviser
Foreword
Malnutrition as for too long been a neglected issue. Yet it is a problem tat affects one in tree people worldwide. Today, 159 million cildren are stunted, 50 million are wasted and more tan 2 billion people are overweigt or obese. But in 2015 for te first time in istory, troug te Global Goals, te world as committed to ending malnutrition in all its forms. As te 2016Global Nutrition Reportmakes clear, tackling malnutrition is one of te largest callenges facing all countries. Malnutrition comes in many guises: stunting, wasting, deficiencies of essential vitamins and minerals, and obesity. Reacing te ambitious target of ending malnutrition is only acievable if world leaders can ensure agriculture and food systems policies strengten nutrition outcomes.
here is a moral imperative to eliminate malnutrition. Undernutrition contributes to 45% of te 16,000 cildren under te age of five wo die every day. he impacts extend well beyond ealt: stunted cildren wo survive are permanently disadvantaged, perform worse at scool and are robbed of future earnings tat could support tem and teir families. But eliminating malnutrition is also an economic imperative. he costs of undernutrition in terms of lost national productivity are significant, wit between 3% and 16% of GDP lost annually in Africa and Asia. he good news is tat we know tat te economic returns from investing in nutrition are ig – GBP 16 generated for every pound invested. Boosting nutrition can boost growt.
his Foresigt report from te Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition on te future of diets provides fres insigts into canges in diets across te world. It igligts te impact of major drivers of cange in dietary patterns, including population growt, rising incomes, urbanization and globalization. he report complements te 2016 Global Nutrition Report in delivering strong evidence to underpin policy cange. he data presented ere focus on te callenges tat decision makers face wen attempting to integrate nutrition witin current food systems and agricultural policies. It sets out ways to approac tese callenges so tat policies are saped in a way tat delivers ealty, safe and nutritious diets for all.
he Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition was first launced by te former UK Secretary of State for International Development at te 2013 Nutrition for Growt Summit. It as proven invaluable for campioning te role of agriculture and food systems in preventing malnutrition. he Panel and its work – including tis report – are an important contribution to te UK Government’s commitment to improve te nutrition of 50 million people by 2020.
Ridding te world of malnutrition will require sustained investment, drive and energy. It will also require innovative solutions tat work to tackle bot undernutrition and te rising burden of obesity afflicting almost all countries around te world. I urge nutrition and agriculture leaders in governments, business and civil society to act on te Foresigt report findings.
James Warton MP Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State Department for International Development
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Acknowledgements
he Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition would like to tank te Project’s Lead Expert Group wo oversaw te tecnical aspects of te Project, wo were involved in muc of te work and in producing te Project outputs and in drafting tis report. hey were led by Professor Lawrence Haddad.
he Global Panel is also grateful to te many individuals and organizations from across te world wo were involved in te detailed tecnical work and te Project’s advisory bodies – some of tese are specifically mentioned below. he Global Panel would also like to tank te Representatives of te Global Panel members, te many oter individuals from organizations across te world wo contributed views and advice, attended worksops in Africa, Asia and Europe, peer reviewed individual papers, and provided oter support.
Project Lead Expert Group Professor Lawrence Haddad, (Cair), Senior Researc Fellow, International Food Policy Researc Institute; Co-Cair of te Global Nutrition Report’s Independent Expert Group;Professor Corinna Hawkes, Director of he Centre for Food Policy, City University; Co-Cair of te Global Nutrition Report’s Independent Expert Group;Professor Jeff WaageOBE, Director, London International Development Centre; cair of Leverulme Centre for Integrative Researc on Agriculture and Healt (LCIRAH); and tecnical adviser to te Global Panel;Professor Patrick Webb, Professor of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University; policy and evidence adviser to te Global Panel;Professor Carles GodfrayCBE FRS, Hope Professor, University of Oxford;Dr Camilla Toulmin, Senior Fellow, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).
Autors and oter contributors of te evidence reviews commissioned by te lead expert group Mr Lukasz Aleksandrowicz, PD Candidate, London Scool of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine;Dr Pillip Baker, Researc Fellow, Australian National University;Ms Komal Batia, Data Analyst, Global Nutrition Report, Institute for Global Healt, University College London;Dr Giuseppe Carrus, Associate Professor, Università Roma Tre;Dr. Fenton D. Beed, Regional Director -East and Souteast Asia/Oceania, World Vegetable Center;Ms Kamilla Gert Eriksen, Data Analyst, Global Nutrition Report; Dr Tara Garnett, Director, Food Climate Researc Network, University of Oxford;Ms Samyukta Kannan, MS Applied Economics, Cornell University;Professor William Masters, Friedman Scool of Nutrition, Tufts University;Ms Birgit Meade, Agricultural Economist, United States Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Researc Service;Dr Andrew Muammed, Cief, International Demand and Trade Branc, United States Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Researc Service;Ms Stepanie Myers, Systems Administration, United States Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Researc Service;Professor Sabine Pircio, Sapienza University of Rome;Mr Alejandro Nin Pratt, Researc Fellow, International Food Policy Researc Institute (IFPRI);Dr Roseline Remans, Associate Researc Scientist, Agriculture and Food Security Center, Eart Institute, Columbia University;Dr Marco Springmann, Researcer, James Martin Fellow, University of Oxford;Ms Meroos Tak, PD Candidate, Leverulme Centre for Integrative Researc in Agriculture and Healt (LCIRAH), SOAS; Ms Suzanne hornsbury; Branc Cief – Crops, United States Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Economic Researc Service.
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Private sector worksop Mr Marc Van Ameringen, Executive Director, Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN);Ms Robynne Anderson, President, Emerging Ag. Inc.;Ms Anne Heugan, Formerly External Affairs Director, Nutrition and Healt at Unilever; Dr Oliver Ouillier, Head of Strategy, Global Healt and Healtcare Industries, Member of te Executive Committee, World Economic Forum, Geneva;Ms Hilary Parsons, Global Senior Public Affairs Manager, Nestlé;Mr Stuart Ponder,Senior Vice-President EMEA, INTL STONE;Dr Howard Sapiro,MARS Inc., Cief Agricultural Officer, Mars Advanced Researc Institute Fellow, MARS, Inc.;Ms Anna Swaites, Director of Sustainable Development, SABMiller;Mr Julian Walker-Palin, Managing Director, ETANTE;Dr Derek Yac, Cief Healt Officer, he Vitality Group.
Reviewers of commissioned evidence papers and te final report Professor Per Pinstrup-Andersen, H. E. Babcock Professor of Food, Nutrition and Public Policy, Cornell University; Professor Jessica Fanzo, Director, Global Food Etics and Policy Program, Jons Hopkins University;Professor Seryl Hendriks, Director of te Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well-being at te University of Pretoria;Ms Anne Heugan, Formerly External Affairs Director, Nutrition and Healt at Unilever;Professor Eileen Kennedy, Dean Emeritus and Professor, Friedman Scool of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University;Ms Mary Mpere, Gana National Development Planning Commission; Dr Emorn Udomkesmalee, Associate Professor, Maidol University, hailand; Co-Cair of te Global Nutrition Report’s Independent Expert Group;Dr Steven Wiggins, Researcer, Overseas Development Institute (ODI);Professor Geoff Dixon, Visiting Professor Agriculture Building, University of Reading; Professor Bavani Sankar, Professor of International Food, Agriculture and Healt, Scool of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) London;Ms Laura Wellesley, Researc Associate, he Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Global Panel Secretariat Professor Sandy homas, Director;Professor Jeff Waage OBE, Director, London International Development Centre; cair of Leverulme Centre for Integrative Researc on Agriculture and Healt (LCIRAH); and tecnical adviser to te Global Panel;Professor Patrick Webb, Professor of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University; policy and evidence adviser to te Global Panel;Ms Sodona Kettle, Foresigt Project Manager;Ms Fernanda Marrocos Leite Villamarin, Foresigt Project Assistant (Researc);Ms CaterineLeBlanc, Assistant to te Director;Ms Deirdre McMaon, Researcer;Ms Manuela Puricelli, Communications Officer; Ms Cristina Spencer, Coordinator.
Global Panel consultants Mr Derek Flynn, Foresigt Project Consultant;Dr Darren A Huges, Consultant;Mr Micael Reilly, Researc Manager, Kent Business Scool;Mr Jon Parke, International Programmes Consultant.
Food systems and diets: Facing te callenges of te 21st century
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Capter 1: he central role of ig-quality diets and food systems in ending malnutrition in all its forms
Contents
Preface6 Foreword7 Acknowledgements8 List of abbreviations11 List of figures/tables/boxes1 Executive summary15 1:he central role of ig-quality diets and food systems in ending malnutrition in all its forms3 2:Wat is a ig-quality diet?31 3:How diets are canging43 4:Forecasting canges in food availability59 5:Wy are diets canging?69 6:Food systems and diet quality81 7:Policies and tools for diet-friendly food systems97 8:A call to action113 References118 Appendices128 1: Table 1.1. Recent reports on food systems: Aims and key messages18 2: Table 3.1. Initiatives to improve food consumption quality and availability19 3: Table 3.2. ‘Healty’ and ‘unealty’ categories used by Imamura et al. (2015) and wat tey mean130 4: Table 3.3. Definitions of categories of processed foods, non-alcoolic beverages and ultra-processed foods used in Capter 3131 5: Table 6.1. he world’s top 25 food and non-alcoolic beverage companies (2003, 2010 and 2015)13
List of abbreviations
AgMIP
ASFBaUCGIAR
CHDDALYsFAO
FBDGsFDIGAINGDPGNPHDDS
AgriculturalModelIntercomparisonandImprovement Project animal source foods business as usual ConsortiumofInternationalAgriculturalResearc Centers coronary eart disease disability-adjusted life years FoodandAgriculturalOrganizationof te United Nations food-based dietary guidelines foreign direct investment Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition gross domestic product gross national product ouseold diet diversity score
International Fund for Agricultural Development International Food Policy Researc Institute minimum acceptable diet minimum diet diversity non-communicable diseases Pan American Healt Organization Sustainable Development Goals sub-Saaran Africa total factor productivity United Nations women’s dietary diversity score United Nations World Food Programme World Healt Assembly World Healt Organization World Trade Organization
Food systems and diets: Facing te callenges of te 21st century11
List of figures
Figure 1.1:Different forms of malnutrition
Figure 1.2:Six of te top 11 risk factors driving te global burden of disease are related to diet Figure 1.3:he multiple burdens of malnutrition faced by countries Figure 1.4:Conceptual framework for te links between diet quality and food systems
Figure 2.1:Wat 83 national food-based dietary guidelines recommend Figure 2.2:he global burden of foodborne disease (total DALYs) by azard groups, 2010 Figure 2.3:he global burden of foodborne disease (DALYs per 100,000 population) by azard groups and by subregion, 2010
Figure 2.4:he food system’s contribution to total global energy consumption and greenouse gas emissions
Figure 2.5:Indices of average energy use, blue-water footprint and greenouse gas emissions per calorie of food for eac food group, US data Figure 2.6:he water-use consequences of different diets in te EU-28 countries Figure 3.1:Intake of key foods and diet components by region, 2013 Panel A Panel B
Figure 3.2:Canges in intake of key foods and diet components by region, 1990–2013 (%) Panel A Panel B Figure 3.3:Consumption of foods and oter diet components by national income group, 2013 Figure 3.4:Percentage of infants aged 0–5 monts wo are exclusively breastfed by region, around 2000 and 2012
Figure 3.5:Percentage of women aged 15–49 years wo gave birt in te last tree years wo consumed various food groups in te day or nigt preceding te survey, DHS surveys 2007–10
Figure 3.6:Trends in per capita sales volumes of non-alcoolic beverages, processed foods and ultra-processed foods by country income group, 2000–15, wit 15-year average growt rates sown
Figure 3.7:Total cange (percentage) in sales of processed foods (kg/capita per year), by country income group, 2010–15
Figure 3.8:Per capita sales volumes of non-alcoolic beverage categories by region, 2000–15
Figure 3.9:Percentage of monetary value of food consumed from different categories: Etiopia 2004/2005, Uganda 2009/2010, Tanzania 2010/2011, Mozambique 2008/2009, Malawi 2001/2011, Sout Africa 2010
Figure 3.10:Consumption of (Panel A) fruits and vegetables and (Panel B) sodium in relation to WHO recommended levels
12List of figures
Figure 4.1:Undernourisment in te base year and projections to 2030 in te business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, FAO
Figure 4.2:Growt in per capita daily caloric intake (2005/ 2007-2030): Low- and middle-income countries and ig-income countries
Figure 4.3:Growt in per capita daily caloric intake (2005/2007-2030): Sub-Saaran Africa and Sout Asia
Figure 4.4:Growt in per capita daily caloric intake (2005/2007-2030): East Asia and Latin America
Figure 4.5:Projections of sales per capita of processed foods, non-alcoolic beverages and ultra-processed foods and beverages to 2035 in countries at different levels of income
Figure 4.6:Trends in te numbers of men and women affected by obesity: 1980–2010
Figure 4.7:Deats avoided by applying dietary guidelines for fruits and vegetables, red meat and energy intake to food availability data (compared to 2050 FAO projections) by region Figure 4.8:Deats avoided by applying dietary guidelines for fruits and vegetables, red meat and energy intake to food availability data (compared to 2050 FAO projections) – selected countries Figure 5.1:Projected annual growt rate (%) of real per capita GDP by region, 2015–30
Figure 5.2:Global poverty projections wit different assumptions about te inclusivity of growt
Figure 5.3:Projected canges in population, 2015–50
Figure 5.4:Profile of female deats by age, low-income countries
Figure 5.5:Urban percentage of overall population by region, 1950–2050
Figure 6.1:Conceptual framework for te links between diet quality and food systems
Figure 6.2:Percentage of ouseold value of food consumed by source of acquisition
Figure 6.3:Percentage of energy from non-staple foods and total dietary energy per capita by region, 1961–2011
Figure 6.4:Global per capita availability per day (kcal) from different foods: 1961, 1986 and 2011
Figure 6.5:East Asia, 1961–2011, calories from different categories
Figure 6.6: CGIAR researc funding allocated to specific crops in 2012 (in US$ million)
Figure 6.7:Per capita food losses and waste at consumption and pre-consumption stage, in different regions