Supply shock from North American oil rippling through global markets

Youngblood_R

Sujets

• Oil
• North America

Informations

• Publié par: Fil_Environnement
• Publié le: 14 mai 2013
• Nombre de lectures: 44
• Langue: English

Extrait

Platts 6thh Annual Crude Oilil 
Summit
London, 14 May 2013 
©©  OECDOECD//IIEAEA  20132013A pivotal time in oil markets
mb/d
Medium-Term Oil Market Balance
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Implied OPEC Spare Capacity World Demand Growth World Supply Capacity Growth
© OECD/IEA 2013Demand: rise of the non-OECD region
Global Oil Demand Growth
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0.0%
-2.5%
-5.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
OECD Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2013Transport still drives oil use…
…but transport gas is around the corner
Gllobaobal RoRoa ad TrTraanns sport SeSectoorr
Gasolline DeDemmanandd, kbkb/d
100%
15 000
80%
60%
10 000
40%
20%
0%
5 000
1990 2000 2010 2015 2018
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
OECD Non-OECD
Gasoline Diesel Natural gas LPG Others
© OECD/IEA 2013US & Iraq lead supply growth
Global Liquids Growth 2012-18
mb/d
Crude US Light Tight Oil
10
NGLs Non-Conv
8.4
Biofuels Processing Gain
8
0.5
6.0
2.0
6
1.4
4
2.3
2.4
2.3
060.6
2
2.8
1.8
1.0
0
OPEC* Non-OPEC Total
* OPEC cruud dee is capacittyy adaddditions
Global Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC
© OECD/IEA 2013New trends in capital expenditures
TightTight oil, deepwater spending on the rise
Annual CaCapex by OilOil TyTypepe
100% 600
90%
500
80%
70%
Total Capex (RHS)
400
60%
50% 300
Other
40%
200
14%
30% Tight Oil
7%
20%
100
Deepwater 22%
10% 16%
Oil Sands
0% -
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source:IEA Analysis of Rystad Energy.  Oil deposits only.
© OECD/IEA 2013
Sh
a
r
e
 
of
 
Ca
p
e
x
 
(
%
)
$
B
i
llio
nNon-OPEC supply: West Side story
Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change
mb/d
114.4
1.0
0.6
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
-1.0
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
NAM LAM OECD EUR FSU China
Africa PG & Biofuels Other Non-OPEC Total
© OECD/IEA 2013OPEC capacity growth hits hurdles
Growth now forecast at 1.75 mb/d, to 36.75 mb/d
Change inin OPEC Crrudeude Oil
mb/d
Production Capacity
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
040.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-060.6
-0.8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Iran Iraq
UAE Saudi Arabia
OtOther Total OPEC
© OECD/IEA 2013Mid. East leads OPEC capacity growth
Iraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE offset Iran decline
Incremental OPEC Crude
Prodductition Capacitity 2012-1818
Iraq
Angola
UAE
Nigeria
LiLibya
Venezuela
Kuwait
Algeria
Qatar
EEdcuador
Saudi Arabia
Iran
mb/d -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6
© OECD/IEA 2013Biofuels supplies grow to 2.4 mb/d
mb/d
252.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
000.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rest of Global Biofuels OECD EUR Biofuels
BrBraaz zil BBiiofofuels USUS BiBiofuellss
© OECD/IEA 2013