Australia 2050 - what will the population of Australia look like in 2050 and how can we manage the

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• Publié par: Orga
• Nombre de lectures: 19
• Langue: English

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2004 Australasian Transport Research Forum

Keynote address

Population futures and implications for society

As the title indicates, I’ve NOT been asked to talk about

transport, which is just as well since I have no expertise on the

subject, while you have lots. However I’ve been doing a lot of

reading in the area of population ageing and its implications for

the transport industry, and I’ve become quite fascinated with the

topic – if you’ll forgive a novice’s understanding of the industry

itself I’m going to weave these into my talk here and there.

I’m going to begin with an overview of what is causing

population ageing, and what this means for population growth

and so on. I find this a particularly important place to start,

because it provides an indication of the degree of confidence

with which you can anticipate the various dimensions of

population ageing. Once you understand these dimensions and

what we might think of as their ‘confidence levels’, you are

much better placed to respond. As I have argued in a soon-to-be-

published paper on local government funding, I feel particularly

strongly that governments need to gear their funding ahead of

the unfolding ‘ageing game’, rather than behind it.

SLIDE 2 – Numerical ageing etc.

SLIDES 6-7 – Change by age – PROFOUND IMPLICATIONS

that I will come back to.

SLIDE 17:

Automobile drivers by age:

Enormous implications – and fortunately an equally enormous

literature about them:

•

1998 rates of usage – the current generation of elderly is

the first that has experienced mass car ownership and

licence holding, and so these rates will almost certainly

increase, especially among women (and if more women

drive, their husbands and partners are likely to be better

catered for than in the past, which could in turn have an

impact on public transport demand)

•

The literature covers older people as drivers, their accident

rates and so on, also the imperative to keep driving as long

as possible to ensure their independence and their

continued participation in society, which older people

value greatly – and this will be even more likely among

the baby boom generation; hearing loss, vision

impairment, ethnic groups and their english language skills

which tend to reduce in old age (post war migrants)

•

These characteristics run into the driving environment and

what you can do about it (highway and road design,

signage that you can read, improved reflectivity, reducing

glare, raised warning tiles in the road surface when

approaching intersections etc.); vehicle design.

The list is endless. However there are indications that at this

point Transport and Infrastructure Development Departments

and Branches are not engaging with population ageing as much

as they are complying with the Disability Discrimination Act.

SLIDE 20: Structural Changes:

Would you build a new peak hour transport system based on

these changes?

•

Many bus routes were set up for transporting school

children. In addition to increasing numbers of elderly who

will use different forms of transport at different times of

the day to the young and working age populations, there

will be increasing numbers of mature age workers and part

time workers, people needing to make multi-purpose trips..

•

From the literature, changes to the public transport

environment will extend to things like better platform and

en-route announcements; flash cards for attracting buses.

•

Pedestrian issues – older people walk a lot, and the more

they do, the better for them – unfortunately according to a

Victorian study, in urban areas older pedestrians are more

likely to be killed than older drivers, while the reverse is

true in rural areas (older drivers more likely)

•

And what about that cross between pedestrian and

motorised vehicles - those ride-on scooters, and what

about the power poles that grow out of the middle of

footpaths (footpaths designed for people on foot, not on

motorised vehicles)

•

Pedestrian Crossings – timing of the period for crossing,

overseas use of countdown signals, less ambiguity with

buzzers.

•

Older people and family support – current elderly are the

parents of the baby boom – on average have more children

to call on for their transport needs than will forthcoming

waves of elderly, who had fewer children.

•

Changing family structures – more people living alone –

will have an impact on the type of transport required.

SLIDE 27:

The same fanning out is evident at all school ages – this has

implications for the number and type of school bus services;

also for funding.

If declining numbers of children and young adults equate with

declining funding, it is time for the policies to change. These

policies were typically developed at a time when natural

increase was never expected to decline and in fact become

negative.

But there will be enormous resource competition issues