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Summer School 2009 - CÉRIUM Montréal, 1 July 2009 Economic Challenges How To Solve Them… And At What Costs? Speaker: Author: Laurent Martin Francis Généreux Senior Economist, CDPQ Senior Economist, DesjardinsEconomic challenges: How to solve them… and at what costs? Plan Plan 1. The American Economy I. Structure of the Economy II. International Comparisons 2. The Crisis I. Decades of Imbalances II. Financial Crisis III. American Recession IV. World Recession 3. The Response I. Federal Government II. Federal Reserve III. State and Local Government 4. Medium Term Consequences 5. Forecasts 6. ChallengesEconomic challenges: How to solve them… and at what costs? Plan Plan 1. The American Economy I. Structure of the Economy II. International Comparisons 2. The Crisis I. Decades of Imbalances II. Financial Crisis III. American Recession IV. World Recession 3. The Response I. Federal Government II. Federal Reserve III. State and Local Government 4. Medium Term Consequences 5. Forecasts 6. ChallengesSize of the economy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States US$ 14 097 192 000 000 (Q1 2009) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Desjardins, Études économiquesA service-based economy Shares of GDP by industry (2008) Goods 21.1% Private Services 66.1% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Desjardins, Études économiquesThe transformation of the American economy The transformation of the Ame th during the second half of the XX century century % of the gross domestic product % of the gross domestic product Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Desjardins, Études économiquesRecessions have become less frequent Real GDP annual change (inflation adjusted) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Desjardins, Études économiquesServices production is more stable Real GDP annual change (inflation adjusted) * One year moving average. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Desjardins, Études économiquesHousehold consumption: the largest share of aggregate demand Composition of GDP in billions of US $ (Q1 2009) Consumption 70% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Desjardins, Études économiquesEconomic challenges: How to solve them… and at what costs? Plan Plan 1. The American Economy I. Structure of the Economy II. International Comparisons 2. The Crisis I. Decades of Imbalances II. Financial Crisis III. American Recession IV. World Recession 3. The Response I. Federal Government II. Federal Reserve III. State and Local Government 4. Medium Term Consequences 5. Forecasts 6. Challenges