Bin Laden and the bomb

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Bin

Laden and the bomb

By David Albright, Kathryn Buehler & Holly Higgins

E OSAMA BIN LADEN AND THE AL QAEDA NETWORK SHOPPING FOR N—W CURAELODT O RHEAYPONS lready have them? Is it possible that today’s terrorists could acquire such weapons—an hem? Answering these questions has taken on an added urgency in the wake of the Sept

1 attacks. Al Qaeda has sought nuclear weapons for years. Last year, the CIA intercept message from an Al Qaeda member who boasted that Osama bin Laden was planning to

out a “Hiroshima” against America. have contacted foreign “insiders” to secretly procure nu- Nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists is a frigchlteeanr -materials, equipment, or technology. Similar contact ing prospect. A surface detonation in a major U.S. citoyc ocfu rared in the late 1980s between the secret Iraqi five-kiloton nuclear bomb—one-third the size of thew eHia-pons program and German nuclear specialists who roshima blast—would destroy most buildings within ah sarebv-ored grudges against their employers or wanted eral-block radius. Many within about a mile from gromunodney. Through these illicit arrangements, Iraq covertly zero would receive severe radiation and burn injurieos.btained an astonishing variety and amount of classified Considering the stakes, everyone wants 100 pegracse nctentrifuge uranium enrichment components and in- certainty that terrorist groups do not have nufcolreamration from MAN New Technologies in Munich. weapons. But absolute certainty is impossible, so goCvoenrsni-dering the Taliban’s close cooperation with bin ments must exert extraordinary efforts to ensure thLatdteht re ecaednu-rcun ,n tralearrs mnsfeva eyah  nlpatek rorists never acquire such weapons. cover of the Afghani government’s civil activities. Following extensive analysis of open source inforImna -late October, authorities in Pakistan detained a tion and interviews with knowledgeable officials, thger oInu-p of former nuclear scientists for questioning about stitute for Science and International Security founthd einro involvement with the Taliban. One of the men, Sul- credible evidence that either bin Laden or Al Qaedat apno sB-ashiruddin Mahmood, was once a senior official in sesses nuclear weapons or sufficient fissile matePriathwlim raogprs onpaew raelcun s’nistakccsesbo to rdaa  make them. However, if Al Qaeda obtained enought op lcul-assified information. Western experts worried that tonium or highly enriched uranium, we believe it is tchaep as-cientists could have relayed nuclear knowledge, ble of building a crude nuclear explosive, despite sempneqiualervMahmood, who ot,mar rites alt otT ehbila .na difficult steps. We cannot say absolutely whethewro rAkled for Pakistan’s government for 28 years, felt be- Qaeda possesses fissile material, but to our knowletdrgaey endo by Islamabad, according to a family friend inter- evidence of possession has surfaced. viewed by thWeashington Po.s tThe friend said Mah- This uncertainty reflects several factors. We knomwo oih mhttadt lo doba tulwonegdeerid kedfe  hnsco previous attempts—all unsuccessful—by Al Qaeda aPgaeknitsstan’s nuclear program to be secret, but not his ex- to buy highly enriched uranium in the mid-1990pse ritnise on enriching uranium or producing weapon-grade Africa, Europe, and Russia. Bin Laden has loudlyp Qaer Alaveda hehT tct nao -loarbiiuon Fm. sewpeustul claimed his desire for nuclear capability, and on Notvheh icnr em iuanurbapac ot ytili pcetolu porduromuin.m- ber 9, he told a Pakistani journalist that he alreadBy uht aMsahmood, or his colleagues, may have transferred nuclear weapons. U.S. intelligence officials reporstuecdlhy know-how or become a conduit for sensitive infor- believe that bin Laden is actively seeking numclaetaiorn or items. weapons, but they doubt his claim that he possessesI f atnhye.y had a secret, fixed base in Afghanistan, over the Information on who may be helping Al Qaeda, laves tsea yalerQal  Arsna dde aaTilti salliban ouldes cdn how, remains sketchy. It is possible that Al Qaeda ahgaevnet smade significant progress on nuclear research. Such

January/February 2002 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists23