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Etat de l'industrie bancaire européenne Edition 2014 Roland Berger

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The State of the European Banking Industry th2014 edition Press conference thJuly, 17 2014 Contents Page A. 2013 European Banking industry performance 3 B. Performance analysis per main business line 14 C. Moving forward 22 D. Update on Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 27 Appendices 30 This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness and accuracy of the statements made in this document. © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 20140715_State of the European Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.pptx 2 B. 2013 European Banking industry performance 20140715_State of the European Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.

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Publié le 17 juillet 2014
Nombre de lectures 95
Langue English
Poids de l'ouvrage 2 Mo

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The State of the European Banking Industry th 2014 edition Press conference
th July, 172014
© Roland BergerStrategy Consultants
B. Performance analysis per main business line
D. Update on Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Appendices
Contents
This documentshall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. Itmay not be passedon and/or may not be made availableto third parties without prior written consent from RolandBerger StrategyConsultants. RBSCdoes not assume any responsibility for the completeness and accuracy of the statements made in this document.
22
14
3
Page
27
30
C. Moving forward
20140715_State of theEuropean Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.pptx2
A. 2013 European Banking industry performance
B. 2013European Banking industry performance
_ _.
th The State of the EuropeanBanking Industry2014 edition We have screenedthe performanceof 100 key European banks representing more than 90% of the EU 27 banking industry Banking revenues from core activities [2013; EUR Bn] 1) 700 PERIMETER Specialized Financial Services5% > 100European banks covering ~90% of the 13% Insurance and Investor Services EU 27 banking industry in 2013 METHODOLOGY Corporate and Investment Banking 23% > 2levels of analysis: Economic performance (revenue, profit) Retail & Business Banking Financial sustainability (balance sheet structure) 59%> Aggregateddata at global level and then zooming in by business line with a comparable perimeter Group CIB: Corporate and Investment Bank RBB: Retail and Business Bank (from RegionsNordics ROWTotalUK, IberiaItaly CEEGermany France 1individuals to SMEs) of activityBeNeLux Switzerland, Ireland AustriaSFS: Specialized Financial Services Specialized Financial Services (SFS)Corporate and Investment Banking(CIB)IIS: Insurance and Investor Services Insurance and investor services (IIS)Retail & business banking > Aswell as comparison between nine regions
1) excludingSME banking,integrated within CIB Source: Annual reports, Financial presentations,Roland Berger analysis
20140715_State of theEuropean Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.pptx4
2013: another year of recovery for the European Banking industry supported by ECB EU policies
Euro Stoxx Banks Index
Eurogroup chief announces European Spain will not Central Bank use European decreased Stability interest rates Mechanism from 0.75% to help 0.5%
ECB announced it would keep interest rate levels at current or lower rates for an extended period
Cyprus bailout plan isEuropean announced regulations decisions (facta, FTF) 01.01.2013 01.04.201301.07.2013
1) 5-year averageCDS - Northern European banks
European Banking Authority publishedrisk dashboard with positive conditions of European banks
Proposal on banking structural reform adopted by the European Commission
Judiciary complaint against12 major banks for FOREX manipulation
Banks results show signs of revival
European Central Bank decreased interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25%
5-year average CDS (bps)
Country specific recommendations under the StabilityGrowth Pact released by the European Commission
Single Resolution Mechanism with a EUR 55 bn fund is proposed by the European Commission 01.10.2013 01.01.2014 01.04.2014 01.07.2014
2) 5-year averageCDS - Southern European banks
1) Basedon BNPP, Société Générale, Deutsche Bank ,Commerzbank, UBS, KBC, Lloyds, HSBC, RBS 2) Basedon Santander, BBVA, Caixa,Banco EspirituSanto, Monte Paschi,Unicredit, Intesa Source: Bloomberg;Press; Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
2010-2011 evolution
-39%
+84%
+118%
2011-2012 evolution
+10%
-46%
-56%
2012-2013 evolution
+20%
-35%
-26%
20140715_State of theEuropean Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.pptx5
Slowly but surely, non-bankinginvestors continue to gain market shares in the overall EU zone Economy financing
1) Breakdown of financial sector assets by supply-side segment [2008-2014; Euro zone; EUR Tn]
2) MFIs Insurers &Pension funds 3) Investment funds Financial vehicle corporations47,9 4) 45,6 44,8
Banks share
49,2 49,7 48,4
2,4 2,4 2,4 2,3 2,1 1,9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Q1 2014
71% 68% 67% 68% 66% 63% 62%
CAGR CAGR 08-11 11-13 3% -0%
2% -5%
5% 6% 12% 13% -1% -9%
1) Austria,Belgium, Cyprus,Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,Greece, Ireland, Italy,Latvia, Luxembourg,Malta, theNether lands, Portugal,Slovakia, Slovenia, andSpain 2) Monetary FinancialInstitutions (incl. banks); 3)Including hedge funds and retail mutual funds; 4) Carries out securitization transactions andissues debtinstruments Source: European Central Bank; Roland Berger analysis20140715_State of theEuropean Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.pptx6
Meanwhile, European Banks have pursued their efforts to strengthen their balance sheet in line with Basel III requirements…
Capital and assets indicators [2007-2013]
Less assetsand less risks for higher Tier 1 ratio Risk 39 35 38 37 35 34 32 weighting* % Base 100 [2007]% T1ratio
158 150 144 147 131 0 112112 118107 104 1000101
Capital raised by EU banks[EUR bn]
140
110
State Private
H2 2014e 2) H1 2014
1) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013H2- 20082009 2010 2011 20122013 2014e 2007 Total assetsTier 1 capitalTier 1 capitalratio 1) Of which 11bn for RBS and 8.62) Of which 8Barclays ;bn forbn for Deutsche Bank and 5bn for Monte dei Paschi *) Risk weighting is Total RWAs/Total assets Source: Press research, Bankscope,Company reports, Roland Berger analysisEuropean Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.pptx20140715_State of the7
… andin anticipation of the convergence that will result fromECB Comprehensive Assessment
NPL situationat top European banks [as of end of June 2013]
Global portfolio
Coverage 1) ratio Average: 3,7%
Standard deviation: 2,3
1) Provisionson total non-performingloans 2) Rate of non-performingloans on total loans; 3) Weighted average Source: EBA,Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Average: 43%
Exposure 2) ratio
Retail vs. Corporates clients
Coverage 1) ratio
Avg Retail: 5,6%
Retail Corporate
Standard deviation Corporate: 4,0 Standard deviation Retail: 3,9 Avg Corporate: 7,1%
3) Avg. Retail: 48%
3) Avg. Corpo.: 43%
Exposure 2) ratio
20140715_State of theEuropean Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.pptx8
Overall, EuropeanBanking industry revenues have continued to decrease but at a slower pace and costs have started to be contained
Key indicatorsby Bank's origin [2009-2013;EUR bn]
1) Net banking income and Operating expensesOperating expenses vs. NBI[2012-2013 growth] NBI growth NBI 717717 707 704700 8% Iberia Nordics 6% Switzerland 4% 2% Netherlands UK + Irl. 0% France CEE OPEX393 386Belgium 375 354 328-2% Germany -4% Austria Italy 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -18% OPEX 46% 50% 52% 56% 55% [%NBI] Operating expense OPEX growth 1) Excludingnon-relevant banks(NBI or expense growth >15% or <-15%), which represent 7%NBI of our scope Source: Capital IQ, annual reports, Roland Berger analysis9European Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.pptx20140715_State of the
The profitability recoveryin 2013 has mainly been driven by margin increase and reduction of exceptional items
Profit Beforetax variation [2013 vs. 2012; EUR Bn]
60
1) PBT 2011
1) PBT 2012
+57
Margin impact
1) Profitbefore tax Source: Bankscope,Capital IQ, annual reports, Roland Berger analysis
-15
Volume impact
+53.8 Bn
-28
Productivity impact
-4
Mainly driven by Spain (70%)
1) Cost of riskNon-core andPBT 2013 impact exceptionalimpact
20140715_State of theEuropean Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.pptx10
Intl' retail banks and SFS specialists still the most profitable models; Universal Banks support complexity costs not offset by diversification benefits
Key performanceindicators per bank model [2013; %] NBI [% ofCost of risk 1) 2) Scope totalassets] [%of income]Cost-income ratio
Domestic retail banks
International retail banks
2,4% 24% 2,5%
2,5% 20% 2,6%
3,1% SFS 2% specialists 3,2%
27% 20%
26% 23%
15% 17%
65% 62%
52% 52%
59% 61%
3) Core PBTto NBI
7% 11%
25% 31%
29% 28%
Driven by risk transfer out of Domestic Spanish banks
Mainly impacted 1,8% 14%73% 15% Universalby Italian and 54% Irish Universal banks 2,0% 17%73% 14% banks 2 0122 013 1) Share of 2013 Net Banking Income; 2) Operating expenseson Net banking income; 3) Profit Before Tax excludingexceptional itemsand non-core activities Source: Annual reports, Financial presentations,Roland Berger analysisEuropean Banking Industry_FINAL VERSION.pptx1120140715_State of the