Results and Performance 2010
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Results and Performance 2010

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IEG ANNUAL REPORT 2010Results and Performance of the World Bank GroupVOLUME 1: MAIN REPORTThe World Bank GroupWORKING FOR A WORLD FREE OF POVERTYThe World Bank Group consists of five institutions—the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the Inter-national Development Association (IDA), the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), and the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). Its mission is to fight poverty for lasting results and to help people help themselves and their environment by provid-ing resources, sharing knowledge, building capacity, and forging partnerships in the public and private sectors.The Independent Evaluation GroupENHANCING DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS THROUGH EXCELLENCE AND INDEPENDENCE IN EVALUATIONhe Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) is an indepen-Tdent, three-part unit within the World Bank Group. IEG-World Bank is charged with evaluating the activities of the IBRD (The World Bank) and IDA, IEG-IFC focuses on assessment of IFC’s work toward private sector develop-ment, and IEG-MIGA evaluates the contributions of MIGA guarantee projects and services. IEG reports directly to the Bank’s Board of Directors through the Director-General, Evaluation.

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Publié le 15 mars 2011
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IEG ANNUAL REPORT 2010
Results and Performance
of the World Bank Group
VOLUME 1: MAIN REPORTThe World Bank Group
WORKING FOR A WORLD FREE OF POVERTY
The World Bank Group consists of five institutions—the
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
(IBRD), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the Inter-
national Development Association (IDA), the Multilateral
Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), and the International
Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).
Its mission is to fight poverty for lasting results and to help
people help themselves and their environment by provid-
ing resources, sharing knowledge, building capacity, and
forging partnerships in the public and private sectors.
The Independent Evaluation Group
ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT
EFFECTIVENESS THROUGH EXCELLENCE
AND INDEPENDENCE IN EVALUATION
he Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) is an indepen-Tdent, three-part unit within the World Bank Group.
IEG-World Bank is charged with evaluating the activities
of the IBRD (The World Bank) and IDA, IEG-IFC focuses on
assessment of IFC’s work toward private sector develop-
ment, and IEG-MIGA evaluates the contributions of MIGA
guarantee projects and services. IEG reports directly to the
Bank’s Board of Directors through the Director-General,
Evaluation.
The goals of evaluation are to learn from experience, to
rovide an objective basis for assessing the results of the
Bank Group’s work, and to provide accountability in the
achievement of its objectives. It also improves Bank Group
work by identifying and disseminating the lessons learned
from experience and by framing recommendations drawn
from evaluation findings.Results and Performance of the World Bank Group
IEG Annual Report 2010
Volume 1: Main Report
2010
The World Bank
Washington, D.C.Copyright © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank
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Printed on recycled paperTable of Contents
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .viii
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ix
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x
Management Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xviii
Chairman’s Summary: Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) . . . . xxvii
PART I: Activities and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1. Results and Performance 3
Unprecedented Change at the World Bank Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Rationale for a Review of the Whole World Bank Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Current Trends—A Year Dominated by Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Results and Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2. Management Follow-Up to IEG Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Overview of the IEG Follow-Up Processes/Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Adoption, Implementation, and Historic Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Selected International Practices on Recommendation Follow-Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
PART II: Selected Issues Related to Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3. World Bank: Decentralization and Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
4. IFC: Key Factors Affecting Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
IFC Development Impact: Factoring in Project Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
A Review of IFC’s Work Quality at Entry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Looking Ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
5. MIGA: Development Outcome and Quality of Underwriting . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Development Outcome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Quality of Underwriting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Table of Contents | iiiAppendixes
A IEG Evaluation Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
B Recent Trends in World Bank Project Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77
C Follow-Up to Evaluation in Other Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79
D Further Details of Regression Analysis—World Bank Decentralization . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81
E IFC Supplemental Data Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83
F Risk-Adjusted Expected Development Outcomes at IFC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89
G IEG-MIGA’s Ex Post Project Evaluation Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94
H MIGA Guarantee Projects Evaluated for This Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Boxes
1.1 How Well Have Previous Crisis-Related Loans Performed? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2 IFC’s Global Trade Finance Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
1.3 Satisfactory and Unsatisfactory Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
1.4 Evaluating the Performance of World Bank Water-Related Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
1.5 IFC Environmental and Social Performance Case Studies:
Client Commitment Is Key to Success . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
1.6 Attention to Gender Issues Enhances Development Effectiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
1.7 Monitoring AAA Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
2.1 Opportunities for Assessing Effectiveness of Recommendation Follow-Up . . . . . . . . .35
2.2 IEG Recommendations Consistent with the Direction of IFC’s Evolution . . . . . . . . . . . .36
2.3 Lessons from IEG-IFC’s Management Action Tracking Record . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37
2.4 Many IEG Recommendations Have Been Taken Up by MIGA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38
2.5 Key IEG Recommendations to Strengthen MIGA’s Effectiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
3.1 Decentralization Tensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46
3.2 Decentralization at IFC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
4.1 External and Internal Factors Affecting IFC Development Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
4.2 Examples of Observed Additionalities and Gaps in Achievement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63
5.1 Analyzing Project Financial Viability Is Key to Underwriting Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69
5.2 Quality of Underwriting: Assessing Banks’ Environment
and Social Management Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69
Figures
1.1 New Commitments, Investments, and Guarantees at the World Bank,
IFC, and MIGA—Present and Past Crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.2 World Bank and IFC: Precrisis, Crisis, and Postcrisis New Commitments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1.3 New World Bank and IFC Commitments and MIGA Guarantees
to IDA Countries and Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
iv | IEG Annual Report 2010 1.4 W orld Bank: Policy-Based Lending, Investment, and Financial
Intermediary Lending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
1.5 IFC Net Commitments by Instrument, 2000–09 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
1.6 Performance Ratings across the World Bank, IFC, and MIGA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
1.7 IFC Investment Outcomes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
1.8 Development Outcomes and IFC Investment Outcomes Correlated (2007–09) . . . . .16
1.9 World Bank Project Performance (1993–2009) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
1.10 World Bank DPLs and Investment Lending Outcomes (Fiscal 1993–2009) . . . . . . . . . .18
1.11 World Bank versus Borrower Performance (1990–2009) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
1.12 IFC Environmental and Social Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
1.13 IFC D evelopment Outcome Ratings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
1.14 World Bank and IFC: Expenditures on Advisory Services, Fiscal 2000–09 . . . . . . . . . . . .24
1.15 Development Effectiveness of IFC Advisory Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26
2.1 IEG-World Bank Ratings since 2007 . . . .33
2.2 IEG Average Level of Adoption Ratings over Time (2003–10) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
2.3 Management Action Tracking Record Ratings since 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
2.4 Mction Trackd Ratings for Country Evaluations in 2010 . . . . .38
3.1 Shares of Field-Based Staff and Country Directors since 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48
3.2 Results Chain for Bank Decentralization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49
4.1 High IFC Work Quality Effects on Business Environments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58
4.2 Loan Reserve Balances versus Development Outcome Ratings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58
4.3 Project Risk versus Sponsor and Market Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
4.4 Overall Work Quality versus Supervision Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
4.5 Role of Client Contributions to Development Effectiveness
Ratings in Advisory Services Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60
4.6 IFC Additionality by Type: Financial/Nonfinancial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62
4.7 Advisory Service Projects Linked to Investments versus Those with No Linkages . . .63
5.1 Project Development Outcome Ratings in Both Clusters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67
5.2 MIGA’s Quality of Underwriting in Both Clusters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68
5.3 Quality of Underwriting and Development Outcome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68
Tables
MR.1 IEG Ratings of IBRD- and IDA-Sponsored Operations at Exit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix
2.1 Comparison of IEG Management Action Tracking Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
3.1 Eff ects of Field-Based Task Team Leaders on Operations Design, Supervision,
and Partnerships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50
3.2 Field-Based Operations Outcomes versus Those Based in Headquarters . . . . . . . . . . . .51
3.3 Determinants of the Location of Task Team Leader at Closing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51
3.4 Determinants of IEG Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51
Table of Contents | v 3.5 Country Program Outcomes When Director Is In-Country versus
at Headquarters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52
3.6 Importance of Location of Team Leader by Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
3.7 Imporocation of the Team Leader in “Scattered Site” Projects . . . . . . . . . . . .54
Volume II Management Response to Recommendations
All are available online at http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/rap2010
IEG-WB Management Action Record and Implementation Report 2010
IEG-IFC Mction Tracking Record 2010
IEG-MIGA Management Action Trackd 2010
vi | IEG Annual Report 2010Abbreviations
AAA Analytic and advisory activities
ACP Agreement at Completion Point (International Fund for Agricultural Development)
ACS Activity Completion Summary
ADB Asian Development Bank
CAS Country Assistance Strategy
CRG Credit Review Guidelines
DOTS Development Outcome Tracking System
DPL Development Policy Loan
ECG Evaluation Cooperation Group
E&S Environmental and social (effects)
ESW Economic and sector work
FDI Foreign direct investment
GTFP Global Trade Finance Program
IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ICR Implementation Completion Report
IDA International Development Association
IED Independent Evaluation Department (Asian Development Bank)
IEG Independent Evaluation Group
IFC International Finance Corporation
IICCR Institutional Investor Country Credit Rating
M&E Monitoring and evaluation
MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
NLTA Nonlending technical assistance
PER Project Evaluation Report
PPAR Project Performance Assessment Review
PRSC Poverty Reduction Support Credit
QAG Quality Assurance Group
XPSR Expanded Project Supervision Report
Abbreviations | viiAcknowledgments
This report was prepared by a core team led by Anjali Ku- support from Ismail Arslan, Monika Huppi, Soniya Car-
mar, Independent Evaluation Group (IEG)–World Bank; valho, Nischint Bhatnagar, and Melvin Vaz.
Stephen Francis Pirozzi, IEG–International Finance Corpo-
The evaluation greatly benefitted from constructive advice
ration (IFC); and Stefan Apfalter, IEG–Multilateral Invest-
and feedback from many persons. Nils Fostvedt and Bruce
ment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), with contributions from
Murray served as peer reviewers to the report. Valuable
Anahit Aghumian, Andaleeb Alam, Marianne Ellen Ander-
commentary was also provided by Martha Ainsworth, Ami-
son, Unurjargal Demberel, Sidney Edelmann, Jouni Mar-
tava Banerjee, Hans-Martin Boehmer, Daniela Gressani, Ali
tii Eerikainen, Cheikh M’Backe Fall, Jean-Olivier Fraisse,
Khadr, Aart Kraay, and Andrew Warner. William Hurlbut
Hiroyuki Hatashima, Beata Lenard, Brett Libresco, Albert
and Heather Dittbrenner provided editorial support, and
Martinez, Bidjan Nashat, Garima Sahai, Cherian Samuel,
production assistance was provided by Yvette Jarencio.
Janardan Prasad Singh, Aurora Medina Siy, Aida Tapalova,
Yezena Yimer supported all aspects of document delivery.
Jesse Torrence, Yoshine Uchimura, and Victoria Viray-
The evaluation was conducted under the guidance of Mendoza. Contributions were also provided by consultants
Mark Sundberg, Cheryl Gray, Stoyan Tenev, Marvin Taylor-Luis Lopez-Calva, Osvaldo Feinstein, Linda Morra, Ray Rist,
Dormond, Christine Wallich, and Vinod Thomas. Joanne Salop, and Suleiman Wasty. The team appreciates
Director-General, Evaluation: Vinod Thomas
Director, IEG–World Bank: Cheryl Gray
Director, IEG–IFC: Marvin Taylor-Dormond
Director, IEG–MIGA: Christine Wallich
Manager, IEG–World Bank, Corporate and Global Evaluations and Methods: Mark Sundberg
Head, Macro Evaluation, IEG–IFC: Stoyan Tenev
Overall Task Coordinator, IEG–World Bank: Anjali Kumar
Task Manager, IEG–IFC: Stephen Francis Pirozzi
Task Manager, IEG–MIGA: P. Stefan Apfalter
viii | IEG Annual Report 2010