La lecture à portée de main
Description
Informations
Publié par | brun1 |
Publié le | 05 juin 2015 |
Nombre de lectures | 423 |
Langue | English |
Poids de l'ouvrage | 1 Mo |
Extrait
GreekReforms
inthecontextofthe
20/02/2015EUROGROUPAgreement
MARCH2015
1. Introduction
Thisdocumentpresentsforthefirsttimeafullsummaryofthereformsandlegislativeprojectsthat
willbeundertakenbytheGovernmentofGreeceunderthetermsoftheFebruary20,2015extension
oftheMFAFA.ItispresentedtoGreece'sEuropeanpartnersasasteptowardscompletionofthe
FinalReviewofthepresentarrangementbytheagreedtargetdateoftheendofApril,2015.Over
theinterveningmonth,theGreekGovernmentispreparedtosharefulldetailsofthetechnical
judgmentsunderlyingthefiscalprojectionspresentedhere,whileseekingthebenefitoftheexpertise
andpracticalexperienceofitspartnerstorefineandimprovetheestimates.
Thelargerpurposeofthisdocumentis,inthefirstinstance,tounlockshort-termfinancingthatwill
permittheGreekgovernmenttomeetimmediateobligations,andtomeetthestipulationsofthe
EuropeanCentralBanksothatGreekgovernmentbillsmayagainbeissuedtoGreekbanksand
rediscounted at the ECB. The Greek government considers that these steps are now essential
preconditions for the stabilization of the Greek economy and to begin the recovery of Greek
institutionsandsocietyfromthecrisisofthepastsixyears,whoseconsequencesarevisibleand
knowntoall.
TheHellenicRepublicconsidersitselftobeaproudandindefeasiblememberoftheEuropeanUnion
andanirrevocablememberoftheEurozone.YettheviabilityofthatUnion,andespeciallyofthe
commoncurrency,isnowinquestion,inthemindsofmanyGreekcitizensasitisinthemindsof
many among our European partners. The question before us all, as Europeans, is whether the
EuropeanUnioncanrisetothechallengebeforeit.Itisnecessarynow,withoutfurtherdelaytoturn
acorneronthemistakesofthepastandtoforgeanewrelationshipbetweenmemberstates,a
relationshipbasedonsolidarity,resolve,mutualrespectandanewhopeforcommonprogress.To
thatend,itisnowurgentthatthebooksbeclosedonthepastprogrammewiththerapidconclusion
oftheFinalReview,sothatGreeceandherpartnerscanproceedtonegotiateandtolaunchanew
partnershipandanewmodelfordevelopmentandgrowthinGreece.
2. MacroeconomicandFiscalContext
Macroeconomicframework
TherealoutputgrowthforecastfortheGreekeconomyis1.4%for2015and2.9%for2016.Both
forecastsarelowerthanthoseprojectedbytheBudgetfor2015(2.9%)andtheProgrammefor2016
(3.7%).Inparticular,thenewscenarioassumesdelayofconsumptionandinvestmentplansinthe
firsttwoquartersof2015duetocontinueduncertaintyandareboundinthesecondhalfof2015that
continuesinto2016asuncertaintyclears.Themaindriversofrealgrowthareconsumptionand
investmentexpenditure-theformerbeingmorerobustin2016.Thebaselinescenarioassumesno
policychanges.Underthisnewscenario,unemploymentisestimatedat23.4%in2015(incomparison
to22.6%inthe2015Budget)and21.1%in2016.
Source:MinistryofFinance,preliminaryprojections.
TheMinistryofFinancerealoutputgrowthforecastfor2015isapproximatelyequaltothemedian
forecastofawiderangeofdomesticandforeignbanksandresearchinstitutes.
2 Fiscalprojections
Assumingnopolicychanges,thenewmacroeconomicenvironmentisconsistentwithaprimaryfiscal
surplusof1.2%for2015.Takingintoaccounttheeffectofthemeasurestobroadenthetaxbaseand
increaserevenuesfor2015,whichamountto€4.7billion,theprimaryfiscalsurplusfor2015could
increasesubstantiallyopeningupsomefiscalspace.
Source:MinistryofFinance,preliminaryprojections
Tax administration in Greece has been plagued for decades by loose legislation, primitive
technologiesandweakenforcement,whichtogetherhavefosteredaclimateofnon-compliance.This
inturnimposesarequirementofhighrates,especiallyontaxesthatfallonconsumptionandproperty
andthatarethereforehardertoavoid,andtheconsequenceofthatintimesoffiscalstressis
extreme tax pressure on the general working population, along with increasing informality, tax
evasionandalargebacklogoftaxarrears,mostofwhichbecomeuncollectibleastimepasses.
The new government is conscious that this cycle of non-compliance, tax pressure and
deformalizationmustbebroken,andtheonlywaytodothatistoforgeanewsystemofefficientand
seamlesstaxadministrationinGreece.Forthisreason,thetaxproposalsofthenewgovernmentseek
toexploitbest---practiceexperienceinthepartnercountriesoveralargespectrumoftaxpolicies.
Eachofthesemayberelativelysmallinimmediaterevenueraised,andtheprospectiverevenuesin
eachcasearesubjecttouncertainty.Butthecomprehensiveandbroad---basedapproachwillhelpto
assure that, in the aggregate, significant revenues will be forthcoming. More important,
comprehensivereformoftaxadministrationwilllaythegroundworkforamoreefficientandfairtax
systeminthefuture,andthereforealowertaxburdenongoingbusinessconcernsandcompliant
householdsastheGreekeconomyrecovers.
Financingneeds
Inthegovernment’sbaselinescenario,whichassumesnopolicychanges,thecountry'sfinancing
needsstandsatapproximately€19billion.Itisimportanttohighlightthattheshortfallofthe2014
primarysurplusby2709millionswascarriedoverinto2015,paidforfromthegeneralgovernment’s
liquidityreserves.
3 FinancialandFiscaloverviewoftheGreekReforms
Table3showsanoverviewofthetotalfinancialandfiscalimpactofGreekReformprogram.
Source:MinistryofFinanceandTechnicalGroup,preliminaryprojections
Table4showstherangeoffiscalscenariosassociatedwiththefullimplementationofthereform
agenda.
Source:MinistryofFinanceandTechnicalGroup,preliminaryprojections.
4 Table5describesthelistofpolicymeasureswithaprojectedpositivefiscalimpactfor2015.
Source:MinistryofFinanceandTechnicalGroup,preliminaryprojections.
Table6aggregatesthemeasureswithanexpectednegativefiscalimpact.
Source:MinistryofFinanceandTechnicalGroup,preliminaryprojections.
5 Table7and8aggregatethosemeasuresthatdonotaffecttheprimarysurplus,buthaveapositive
financialeffectforotherreasons.
Source:MinistryofFinanceandTechnicalGroup,preliminaryprojections.
ReformAreas
3. Taxation
3.1. Intensificationofauditsonlistsofbanktransfersandoffshoreentities
a.Currentsituation:Thegovernmentisintheprocessoffinalizingtheauditingoftransfers.Thisaudit
willmakeitpossibletohomeinonun-taxedincomes,potentiallyrepresentingasourceofsignificant
taxrevenues.ThesameistrueoflistsofGreekcitizenswithdepositsinforeignbankinginstitutions.
Moreover,thereare500pendingcasesthatrefertoauditsthathavebeencompletedsince2013,but
correspondingtaxobligationshaveyettobeassessedgiventhelegalrequirementdeterminingthat
existingcasesareauditedagainbytherespectivetaxoffices.
b.Proposedmeasures:TheGSPR(GeneralSecretariatofPublicRevenues)willcombinebanktransfer
and tax return databases in cooperation with SDOE (the financial crime squad) anti-corruption
prosecutors.
• Strengthenbankingsectordataminingtechniquesandimprovecurrentriskanalysissystem
undertheguidanceoftheGreekgovernment ’sOECDexperts.
• GSPRhasidentifiedasetof5complementarymeasurestoaccomplishthispolicygoal.Thedetails
oftheseinitiativesarereadilyavailablefordiscussionwiththeinstitutions.
• ThispolicyisacomponentofoneoftheitemsintheEightBills-Actions-StructuralReforms
(EBASR)tobeintroducedshortly(EBASR-3).
c.Responsibleauthority:GSPR,SDOE.
d.Timetable:Q2of2015.
e.Quantificationoffiscalimpacts:€725to€875millionin2015.€1billionfrom2016onwards.
TechnicaldetailsforthiscalculationareavailablefromGSPR.
3.2. Combatingillegaltradeonoil,tobaccoandalcohol
a.Currentsituation:Petroleum,alcoholandtobaccoproductssmugglingwillbetargeted.Inprevious
yearsanti-smugglingeffortshavebeenfragmentedandnotreflectingbestpractices.
b.Proposedmeasures:StaffingandoperationofCustomsMobileControlUnitswithauditors,in
ordertocarryout24/7checksonadailybasis.FurthercooperationandassistancewithEuropean
partners.GSPRhasidentifiedasetof11complementaryreformstoaccomplishthispolicygoal.The
detailoftheseinitiativesisreadilyavailablefordiscussionwiththeinstitutions.
c.Responsibleauthority:GSPR,SDOE.
d.Timetable:JunethroughH2of2015.
e. Quantification of fiscal impacts: from€250to€400millionin2015. €400millionfrom2016
onwards.TechnicaldetailsforthiscalculationareavailablefromGSPR.
3.3. Enforcementoftransferpricinglegislation
a. Current situation:GreecedelayedtheadoptionoftheOECD’sTransferPricingGuidelinesfor
Multinational Enterprises. Greek legislation also envisages the conclusion of Advance Pricing
Agreements(APAs).Specificactionswillneedtobetakenfortheenforcementofboththeguidelines
andexistinglegislation.
6 b. Proposed measures: Legislation has recently been introduced (Law 4321/2015, article
21)
accordingtowhichexpendituresrepresentingahighriskoftransferpricingincidencewillincurexantethecorporatetaxofrateof26%.
• IntroductionofaDivertedProfitTaxsimilartotheonerecentlyadoptedbytheUnitedKingdom.
• ClosecooperationwithOECD,TFGRexpertsandEuropeanpartnerstofacilitatetheprocessof
implementationoftheguidelines.Furthermore,cooperationwillallowundertakingstudiesto
identify current gray areas and companies over-exploiting opportunities via intra-group
transactions.
c.Responsibleauthority:GSPR.
d.Timetable:Q2of2015.
e.Quantificationoffiscalimpacts:from€40to€