Prédictions Scelles

Nicolas

Description

Table 8 Predictions of the match outcomes for the 2014 World Cup based on our model for data with 2014 World Cup teams from 08/2012 to 12/2013 (changes compared to Table 7 in bold; adjusted R = 0.460) Match Teams Score A1 Brazil-Croatia +3.11 A2 Mexico-Cameroon +0.41 A3 Brazil-Mexico +3.43 A4 Cameroon-Croatia -0.74 A5 Cameroon-Brazil -3.15 A6 Croatia-Mexico +1.03 A: 1. Brazil 9 (+9), 2. Croatia 6 (-1), 3. Mexico 1 (-4), 4. Cameroon 1 (-4) B1 Spain-Netherlands +1.49 B2 Chile-Australia +3.12 B3 Australia-Netherlands -1.98 B4 Spain-Chile +0.35 B5 Australia-Spain -3.15 B6 Netherlands-Chile -0.43 B: 1. Spain 7 (+5), 2. Chile 5 (+3), 3. Netherlands 4 (0), 4. Australia 0 (-8) C1 Colombia-Greece +1.96 C2 Côte d’Ivoire-Japan +1.22 C3 Colombia-Côte d’Ivoire +1.81 C4 Japan-Greece +0.44 C5 Japan-Colombia -2.31 C6 Greece-Côte d’Ivoire -0.83 C: 1. Colombia 9 (+6), 2. Côte d’Ivoire 6 (0), 3. Japan 1 (-3), 4. Greece 1 (-3) D1 Uruguay-Costa Rica +2.499 D2 England-Italy -0.26 D3 Uruguay-England +0.81 D4 Italy-Costa Rica +1.95 D5 Italy-Uruguay +0.16 D6 Costa Rica-England -2.78 D: 1. Uruguay 7 (+3), 2. Italy 5 (+2), 3. England 4 (+2), 4. Costa Rica 0 (-7) E1 Switzerland-Ecuador +0.01 E2 France-Honduras +2.03 E3 Switzerland-France -0.99 E4 Honduras-Ecuador -2.45 E5 Honduras-Switzerland -2.13 E6 Ecuador-France -0.30 E: 1. France 7 (+3), 2. Ecuador 5 (+2), 3. Switzerland 4 (+1), 4. Honduras 0 (-6) F1 Argentina-Bosnia and Herzegovina +2.

Informations

• Publié par: A_Maes
• Publié le: 02 juin 2014
• Nombre de lectures: 13
• Langue: Français

Extrait

Table 8 Predictions of the match outcomes for the 2014 World Cup based on our model for data with 2014 World Cup teams from 08/2012 to 12/2013 (changes compared to Table 7 in bold; adjusted R² = 0.460)

Match A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6

B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6

C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6

E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6

F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6

G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5

Teams Score Brazil-Croatia +3.11 Mexico-Cameroon +0.41 Brazil-Mexico +3.43 Cameroon-Croatia -0.74 Cameroon-Brazil -3.15 Croatia-Mexico +1.03 A: 1. Brazil 9 (+9), 2. Croatia 6 (-1), 3. Mexico 1 (-4), 4. Cameroon 1 (-4) Spain-Netherlands +1.49 Chile-Australia +3.12 Australia-Netherlands -1.98 Spain-Chile +0.35 Australia-Spain -3.15 Netherlands-Chile -0.43 B: 1. Spain 7 (+5), 2. Chile 5 (+3), 3. Netherlands 4 (0), 4. Australia 0 (-8) Colombia-Greece +1.96 Côte d’Ivoire-Japan+1.22 Colombia-Côte d’Ivoire+1.81 Japan-Greece +0.44 Japan-Colombia -2.31 Greece-Côte d’Ivoire-0.83 C: 1. Colombia 9 (+6), 2. Côte d’Ivoire 6 (0), 3. Japan 1 (-3), 4. Greece 1 (-3) Uruguay-Costa Rica+2.499 England-Italy -0.26 Uruguay-England +0.81 Italy-Costa Rica+1.95 Italy-Uruguay +0.16 Costa Rica-England-2.78 D:1. Uruguay7 (+3),2. Italy5 (+2),3. England4 (+2), 4. Costa Rica 0 (-7) Switzerland-Ecuador +0.01 France-Honduras +2.03 Switzerland-France -0.99 Honduras-Ecuador -2.45 Honduras-Switzerland -2.13 Ecuador-France -0.30 E: 1. France 7 (+3),2. Ecuador5 (+2),3. Switzerland4 (+1), 4. Honduras 0 (-6) Argentina-Bosnia and Herzegovina+2.496 Iran-Nigeria -1.44 Argentina-Iran +3.25 Nigeria-Bosnia and Herzegovina-0.73 Nigeria-Argentina -2.84 Bosnia and Herzegovina-Iran+1.87 F: 1. Argentina 9 (+7), 2. Bosnia and Herzegovina 6 (+2), 3. Nigeria 3 (-3), 4. Iran 0 (-6) Germany-Portugal +1.53 Ghana-USA +0.74 Germany-Ghana +1.57 USA-Portugal -0.78 USA-Germany -1.60 Portugal-Ghana +0.77 G: 1. Germany 9 (+6),2. Portugal6 (0),3. Ghana3 (-2), 4. USA 0 (-4) Belgium-Algeria +1.18 Russia-South Korea+1.70 Belgium-Russia +0.47 South Korea-Algeria+0.42 South Korea-Belgium-1.48

H6 Algeria-Russia-1.41 H:1. Russia7 (+3),2. Belgium7 (+2), 3. Algeria 1 (-2), 4. South Korea 1 (-3) M49 Brazil-Chile+1.77 M50 Colombia-Italy -0.16 M51 Spain-Croatia+1.69 M52Uruguay-Côte d’Ivoire+1.82 M53 France-Bosniaand Herzegovina+1.36 M54 Germany-Belgium +1.28 M55 Argentina-Ecuador +1.504 M56 Russia-Portugal -0.28 M57 France-Germany-0.83 M58 Brazil-Italy(or Colombia)+2.48 (or +1.95) M59 Argentina-Portugal (or Russia)(or +2.89) +2.47 M60 Spain-Uruguay +0.53 M61 Brazil-Germany+2.41 M62 Spain-Argentina-1.36 M63 Germany-Spain+0.41 M64 Brazil-Argentina+1.21 Appendix 3 Predictions of the match outcomes for the 2014 World Cup based on our model 08/12-12/13 with betting odds instead of dummies (changes compared to Table 8 in bold; adjusted R² = 0.444) Match TeamsScore A1 Brazil-Croatia+2.73 A2 Mexico-Cameroon-0.10 A3 Brazil-Mexico+2.86 A4 Cameroon-Croatia-0.14 A5 Cameroon-Brazil-3.81 A6 Croatia-Mexico+0.25 A: 1. Brazil 9 (+10), 2. Croatia 2 (-3), 3. Mexico 2 (-3), 4. Cameroon 2 (-4) B1 Spain-Netherlands+0.71 B2 Chile-Australia+2.54 B3 Australia-Netherlands-1.62 B4 Spain-Chile-0.30 B5 Australia-Spain-2.20 B6 Netherlands-Chile-1.02 B:1. Chile7 (+4),2. Spain7 (+3), 3. Netherlands 3 (0), 4. Australia 0 (-7) C1 Colombia-Greece+1.29 C2 Côted’Ivoire-Japan +0.39 C3 Colombia-Côted’Ivoire +1.16 C4 Japan-Greece-0.16 C5 Japan-Colombia-1.75 C6 Greece-Côted’Ivoire -0.007 C: 1. Colombia 9 (+4), 2. Côte d’Ivoire 2 (-1),3. Greece2 (-1),4. Japan1 (-2) D1 Uruguay-CostaRica +2.10 D2 England-Italy+0.36 D3 Uruguay-England+0.24 D4 Italy-CostaRica +1.49 D5 Italy-Uruguay-0.57 D6 CostaRica-England -1.57 D: 1. Uruguay 7 (+3),2. England5 (+2),3. Italy4 (0), 4. Costa Rica 0 (-5) E1 Switzerland-Ecuador-0.497 E2 France-Honduras+1.80 E3 Switzerland-France-0.25 E4 Honduras-Ecuador-1.82 E5 Honduras-Switzerland-1.24 E6 Ecuador-France+0.29 E:1. Ecuador5 (+2),2. France5 (+2), 3. Switzerland 5 (+1), 4. Honduras 0 (-5)

F1 Argentina-Bosniaand Herzegovina+2.17 F2 Iran-Nigeria-0.86 F3 Argentina-Iran+3.49 F4 Nigeria-Bosniaand Herzegovina-0.01 F5 Nigeria-Argentina-2.85 F6 Bosniaand Herzegovina-Iran+0.87 F: 1. Argentina 9 (+8), 2. Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 (-1), 3. Nigeria 4 (-2), 4. Iran 0 (-5) G1 Germany-Portugal+0.90 G2 Ghana-USA-0.15 G3 Germany-Ghana+1.19 G4 USA-Portugal-0.08 G5 USA-Germany-1.51 G6 Portugal-Ghana+0.22 G: 1. Germany 9 (+4), 2. Portugal 2 (-1), 3. Ghana 2 (-1), 4. USA 2 (-2) H1 Belgium-Algeria+0.82 H2 Russia-SouthKorea +0.99 H3 Belgium-Russia-0.12 H4 SouthKorea-Algeria -0.21 H5 SouthKorea-Belgium -0.90 H6 Algeria-Russia-0.83 H: 1. Russia 7 (+2), 2. Belgium 7 (+2), 3. Algeria 1 (-2), 4. South Korea 1 (-2) M49 Brazil-Spain +1.38 M50 Colombia-England +0.14 M51Chile-Croatia(or Mexico)+1.38 (or +1.58) M52 Uruguay-Côted’Ivoire(or Greece)+1.26 (or +1.53) M53Ecuador(or France)-Bosnia and Herzegovina+1.04 (or +0.80) M54 Germany-Belgium(or Russia)+0.60 (or +0.61) M55 Argentina-France(or Ecuador)+1.19 (or +1.30) M56 Russia(or Belgium)-Portugal(or Ghana)+0.31 (or +0.54 or -0.04 or +0.52) M57Ecuador-0.16 (or -0.24)(or France)-Germany M58 Brazil-Colombia (or England)(or +1.46) +1.32 +3.29 (+1.51 without Climate or M59 Argentina-Russia(or Portugalor Belgium) +1.80 or +2.00) M60Chile-Uruguay +0.13 M61 Brazil-Germany(or Ecuador or France)+1.56 (or +1.84 or +1.85) M62Chile (or Uruguay)-Argentina -0.55(or -0.55) Chile +0.496 (or +0.48 or +0.79) M63Chile (or Uruguay)-Germany(or Ecuador or France) Uruguay +0.40 (or +0.40 or +0.66) M64 Brazil-Argentina+0.15 Appendix 4 Predictions of the match outcomes for the 2014 World Cup based on home advantage and country dummies for matches with 2014 World Cup teams from 08/2012 to 12/2013 (changes compared to Appendix 3 in bold; adjusted R² = 0.543)

Match A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6

B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6

Teams Score Brazil-Croatia +2.52 Mexico-Cameroon +0.36 Brazil-Mexico +2.82 Cameroon-Croatia -0.67 Cameroon-Brazil -3.19 Croatia-Mexico +0.30 A: 1. Brazil 9 (+9), 2. Croatia 4 (-2), 3. Mexico 2 (-3), 4. Cameroon 1 (-4) Spain-Netherlands +0.84 Chile-Australia +2.24 Australia-Netherlands -2.01 Spain-Chile +0.60 Australia-Spain -2.84 Netherlands-Chile -0.23

B:1. Spain9 (+5),2. Chile4 (+1), 3. Netherlands 4 (+1), 4. Australia 0 (-7) C1 Colombia-Greece+1.88 C2 Côted’Ivoire-Japan +0.69 C3 Colombia-Côted’Ivoire +1.70 C4 Japan-Greece-0.51 C5 Japan-Colombia-2.39 C6 Greece-Côted’Ivoire -0.18 C: 1. Colombia 9 (+6), 2. Côte d’Ivoire 4 (-1), 3. Greece 4 (-1), 4. Japan 0 (-4) D1 Uruguay-CostaRica +1.25 D2 England-Italy-0.08 D3 Uruguay-England+0.36 D4 Italy-CostaRica +0.97 D5 Italy-Uruguay-0.28 D6 CostaRica-England -0.89 D: 1. Uruguay 5 (+1),2. Italy5 (+1),3. England5 (+1), 4. Costa Rica 0 (-3) E1 Switzerland-Ecuador-0.72 E2 France-Honduras+1.35 E3 Switzerland-France-0.51 E4 Honduras-Ecuador-1.57 E5 Honduras-Switzerland-0.84 E6 Ecuador-France+0.22 E: 1. Ecuador 7 (+3), 2. France 7 (+2), 3. Switzerland 3 (-1), 4. Honduras 0 (-4) F1 Argentina-Bosniaand Herzegovina+0.89 F2 Iran-Nigeria-1.23 F3 Argentina-Iran+2.86 F4 Nigeria-Bosniaand Herzegovina-0.74 F5 Nigeria-Argentina-1.63 F6 Bosniaand Herzegovina-Iran+1.98 F: 1. Argentina 9 (+6), 2. Bosnia and Herzegovina 6 (+2), 3. Nigeria 3 (-2), 4. Iran 0 (-6) G1 Germany-Portugal+0.62 G2 Ghana-USA-0.98 G3 Germany-Ghana+1.97 G4 USA-Portugal-0.37 G5 USA-Germany-0.99 G6 Portugal-Ghana+1.34 G: 1. Germany 9 (+4), 2. Portugal 4 (0),3. USA4 (0),4. Ghana0 (-4) H1 Belgium-Algeria+1.05 H2 Russia-SouthKorea +1.97 H3 Belgium-Russia-0.40 H4 SouthKorea-Algeria -0.52 H5 SouthKorea-Belgium -1.57 H6 Algeria-Russia-1.45 H: 1. Russia 7 (+3), 2. Belgium 7 (+3), 3. Algeria 3 (-1), 4. South Korea 0 (-5) M49 Brazil-Chile (or Netherlands) +1.58(or +1.80) M50 Colombia-Italy (or Uruguayor England)+1.35 (or +1.08 or +1.43) M51Spain-Croatia +1.55 Uruguay +0.62 (or +0.80) M52 Uruguay(or Italy or England)Italy +0.35 (or +0.53)-Côte d’Ivoire (or Greece) England +0.27 (or +0.45) M53 Ecuador-Bosniaand Herzegovina+0.18 M54 Germany-Belgium(or Russia)+0.79 (or +0.39) M55 Argentina-France+0.93 Russia +0.23 (or +0.60) M56 Russia(or Belgium)-Portugal(or USA) Belgium -0.17 (or +0.20) Ecuador(or Bosnia and Herzegovina)-Germany(orEcuador -0.09 (or +0.3) M57 Russia) Bosnia -0.31 (or +0.08) M58 Brazil-Colombia+0.77 M59 Argentina-Russia(or Portugal or Belgiumor USA) +1.01(or +1.25 or +1.41 or +1.61)

Spain-Uruguay(or Italy or England or Côte d’Ivoire or M60 Greece) Brazil-Germany (or Ecuadoror Bosnia and Herzegovina M61 or Russia) M62Spain-Argentina Spain (or Argentina)-Germany (or Ecuadoror Bosnia and M63 Herzegovina or Russia)

M64

Brazil-Argentina(or Spain)

+0.87 (or +1.15 or +1.23 or +1.495 or +1.67)

+1.37 (or +1.46 or +1.68 or +1.76)

-0.22 Spain +0.40 (+0.49 or +0.71 or +0.79) Argentina +0.62 (or +0.71 or +0.93 or +1.01) +0.75 (or +0.97)