Perspectives économiques de l'OCDE

Description

L’OCDE présente ses Perspectives économiques n° 96, qui contiennent des analyses et des projections relatives à ses 34 pays membres ainsi qu’à des économies émergentes.

Informations

• Publié par: Fil_actu
• Publié le: 25 novembre 2014
• Nombre de lectures: 10
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Putting the euro area on
a road to recovery
Paris, 25th November 2014
11h30 Paris time

Catherine L. Mann
OECD Chief Economist Key messages
The euro area continues to hinder global growth, which remains modest
Europe is doing poorly above all because of the lack of demand
Structural factors braking potential growth are interacting with demand weakness,
raising the risk of prolonged stagnation
Constrained demand management policies explain part of this weakness
Some countries have made good progress on structural reforms to reverse the
decline in growth, but others have to make greater efforts
Monetary, fiscal and structural policies are complementary tools to promote a
faster and more widely shared recovery
2 The global economy is stuck in low gear
1 GDP World GDP growth
Volume, percentage change Per cent, seasonally adjusted annualised rate
8 8
Column1 2013 2014 2015 2016
Average, 1995-2007 World 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.96 6
United States 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.0
4 4
Euro area -0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7
2 2 Japan 1.5 0.4 0.8 1.0
BRIICS 5.5 5.1 5.4 5.6
0 0
OECD Europe excl. euro area 2.0 2.8 2.7 3.0
-2 -2 Of which:
- UK 1.7 3.0 2.7 2.5
-4 -4
2 1.2 3.1 2.7 3.1 - CEE3
3 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.6-6 -6 - Scandinavia
-8 -8
1. GDP calculated at PPP exchange rates.
2. Weighted average of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, where weights are moving nominal GDP measured at USD PPP.
3. Weighted average of Denmark, Norway and Sweden, where weights are moving nominal GDP measured at USD PPP. 3
Source: November 2014 Economic Outlook database. Sluggishness is not evenly spread – the
euro area is a locus of weakness
GDP per capita
Volume index, 2008 = 100
110 110
108 108Euro area Japan OECD Europe excl. euro area United States
106 106
104 104
102 102
100 100
98 98
96 96
94 94
Source: November 2014 Economic Outlook database.
4 Slow growth in Europe matters for
world trade and output
Share of world GDP (2013) Share of world trade (2013)
Per cent Per cent
Euro area Euro area
22% 25%
Non-euro
area EU Non-euro
Rest of the 8% Rest of the area EU
world world 11%
64%
70%
Source: November 2014 Economic Outlook database.
5 The expected follow-through to the initial
recovery has been repeatedly delayed
Past Economic Outlook projections of euro area GDP
Volume index, Q1 2008 = 100
102 102
100 100
98 98
96 96
94 94
Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14
92 92
Source: November 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 Economic Outlook databases.
6 The realisation of downside risks would
leave the euro area in stagnation
1 Growth, inflation and unemployment in a downside scenario
GDP Unemployment rate
Annual percentage change Per cent
3 3 12 12
Average 1999-2007
2 2 11 11
1 1 10 10
0 0 9 9
Average 1999-2007
-1 -1 8 8
Inflation
Per cent
3 3
Average 1999-2007
2 2
ECB's inflation target
1 1
0 0
1. Downside scenario shown in red. The shocks modelled in the downside scenario are a 50 basis point reduction in inflation
expectations, a 10% decline in equity prices and a 100 basis point increase in the corporate bond spread, the equity risk premium 7
and the spread between household borrowing and lending rates.
Source: November 2014 Economic Outlook database; and OECD calculations. Post-crisis euro area output weakness: not
export performance, but domestic demand
GDP, exports, consumption and investment
Volume indices, Q2 2009 = 100
130 130
Real GDP Consumption Fixed investment Exports
120 120
110 110
100 100
90 90
Source: November 2014 Economic Outlook database.
8 Part of the euro area’s relative demand
weakness reflects constrained policies
Central bank assets Change in underlying primary balance
Per cent of broad money (M3) Per cent of potential GDP
5 545 45
4 42007-2009 2009-2011 2011-2013United States Euro area40 40 3 3
Japan United Kingdom35 35 2 2
1 130 30
0 0
25 25
-1 -1
20 20 -2 -2
-3 -315 15
-4 -4
10 10
-5 -5
5 5 -6 -6
-7 -70 0
United States United Japan Euro area
Kingdom
Source: Datastream; National Central Banks; and November 2014 Economic Outlook database.
9 Macroeconomic policies in the euro area:
now becoming less of a drag on demand
ECB assets Underlying primary balance
Trillions of euros Annualised change during period, per cent of potential GDP
8 84 4 2012-2013 2014-2016
7 7ECB's target
6 6
3 3
5 5
4 4
2 2 3 3
2 2
1 1 1 1
0 0
-1 -10 0
Source: Datastream; and November 2014 Economic Outlook database.
10