Swine Audit AU up-dated 4-5-07

Ulmera

Informations

• Publié par: Indo
• Nombre de lectures: 24
• Langue: English

Extrait

The Missouri Swine Audit:
An Analysis of Missouri’s Competitive
Position in the Swine Industry
April 2007
The University of Missouri Commercial Agriculture Program
Project Funded by Missouri’s Pork Producers




The Missouri Swine Audit:

An Analysis of Missouri’s Competitive Position in the Swine Industry









Contributing Authors:
Christian Boessen, Eric Berg, Tom Fangman, Charlie Fulhage, Ray
Massey, Rex Ricketts, Tim Safranski, Amy Schmidt, Marcia Shannon,
Ann Ulmer, Heather Wilt and Joe Zulovich





Contact Person:
Ann Ulmer





Updated:
April 2007 Table of Contents

1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................................................1
2 HISTORICAL ECONOMIC, STRUCTURAL AND COMPETITIVE TREND ANALYSIS ....1
2.1 ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF MISSOURI’S SWINE INDUSTRY........................................1
2.1.1 Historical Perspective on the Missouri Swine Industry4
2.1.2 Changes in the Missouri Swine Inventory ............................................................6
2.1.3 Missouri Relative to Region and Nation...............................................................7
2.2 SWINE PRODUCTION TRENDS .....................................................................................8
2.2.1 National and Regional Trends ..............................................................................8
2.2.2 Size of Farms ......................................................................................................13
2.2.3 Swine Numbers...................................................................................................16
2.2.4 Total Pork Production.........................................................................................17
2.2.5 Pork Production per Sow ....................................................................................19
2.2.6 Missouri Pig Exports ..........................................................................................21
2.3 COST OF PRODUCTION..............................................................................................24
2.3.1 Farm Real Estate Values25
2.3.2 Agriculture Real Estate Taxes ............................................................................26
2.3.3 Feed Costs...........................................................................................................27
2.3.4 Environmental Regulations.................................................................................29
2.3.5 Farm Labor.........................................................................................................30
2.3.6 Transportation Costs...........................................................................................30
2.4 REGIONAL SWINE PRICE RELATIONSHIPS .................................................................32
2.5 CONTRACT PRODUCTION TRENDS ............................................................................33
3. MISSOURI SWINE INDUSTRY’S COMPETITIVE POSITION................................................. 35
3.1 PRODUCTION............................................................................................................35
3.2 MARKETING .............................................................................................................35
3.3 SUMMARY OF MISSOURI’S SWINE INDUSTRY CURRENT COMPETITIVE POSITION......36
3.4 GLOBAL PORK PRODUCTION ....................................................................................37
4 FUTURE OF MISSOURI’S SWINE INDUSTRY ........................................................................... 41
4.1 FUTURE SWINE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MISSOURI-SWOT ANALYSIS..................41
4.1.1 System 1: Farrow to Wean – 1,200 sows...........................................................41
4.1.2 System 2: Farrow to Wean – 2,400 sows42
4.1.3 System 3: Farrow to Finish – 150 sow, Monthly Production ............................44
4.1.4 System 4: Farrow to Finish – 300 sow, Biweekly...........................44
4.1.5 System 5: Farrow to Finish – 600 sow, Weekly Production..............................45
4.1.6 System 6: Farrow to – 1200 sow, Weekly Production46
4.1.7 System 7: Feeder to Finish – 2,000 head capacity.............................................47
4.1.8 System 8: Feeder to Finish – 4,000 he47
4.1.9 System 9: Feeder to Finish – 8,000 head capacity48
4.1.10 System 10: Wean to Finish – 2,000 he ............................................49
4.1.11 System 11: Wean to Finish – 4,000 head capacity49
4.1.12 System 12: Wean to Finish – 7,000 he .............................................50
4.2 STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE PROFITABILITY ON MISSOURI SWINE FARMS....................51
4.2.1 Tactic 1: Attaining/Maintaining High Health Status .........................................51
4.2.2 Tactic 2: Maximizing Feed Efficiency ..............................................................51
4.2.3 Tactic 3: Segregated Early Weaning..................................................................52
4.2.4 Tactic 4: Phase Feeding .....................................................................................52
iiList of Tables

Table 1. Economic Impact of the Swine Industry in Missouri * ....................................... 3
Table 2. Comparison of U.S. and Missouri Swine Inventories,* 1920-2005 ................... 5
Table 3. Hog and Pig Inventory of Missouri and Surrounding States Compared to U.S. 7
Table 4. Annual Hog Marketings, Selected States and U.S. ............................................. 7
Table 5. Farm Labor and Wage Rates, Missouri and Iowa,* 1997-2002 ....................... 30
Table 6. Average Distance U.S. Hogs are Hauled for Slaughter 2003: Percent of Firms
Responding by Size Category .......................................................................................... 31
Table 7. Percent of U.S. Hogs Raised by Contract Firms, 1997, 2000 and 2003 ........... 34
Table 8. Percent of U.S. Hogs Raised under Contract, 1997, 2000 and 2003 ................ 34
Table 9. World Pork Production in Leading Countries .................................................. 38
Table 10. World Pork Consumption in Leading Countries ............................................ 39
Table 11. World Pork Imports in Leading Countries ..................................................... 40
Table 12. World Pork Exports in Leading Countries 41

iii
List of Figures

Figure 1. Value of Missouri’s Hog Production, 1980-2005 ............................................. 5
Figure 2. Changes in Missouri Swine Inventory by National Agricultural Statistics
Service Regions in the Last 20 Years ................................................................................ 6
Figure 3. Total US Pork Production, Millions of Pounds ................................................. 8
Figure 4. U.S. Per Capita Pork Consumption, Boneless Weight ...................................... 9
Figure 5. Change in Inventory of Breeding Swine ......................................................... 10
Figure 6. Changes in the United States Hog and Pig Inventory ..................................... 12
Figure 7. Value of Hogs and Pigs as a Percent of Agriculture Products Sold, 2002 ...... 13
Figure 8. Changes in Missouri Pork Industry, Inventory* vs. Operation Numbers ....... 14
Figure 9. Percent of Operations vs. Size of Operations in Missouri ............................... 15
Figure 10. Percent of Inventory vs. Size of Operations in Missouri ............................... 15
Figure 11. Swine Numbers in Missouri Counties ........................................................... 16
Figure 12. Barrows and Gilts Slaughtered in U.S., Federally Inspected ........................ 17
Figure 13. Barrows andhtered in Missouri, Federally Inspected ................. 18
Figure 14. U.S. Average Live and Dressed Weights of Barrows and Gilts, Federally
Inspected .......................................................................................................................... 19
Figure 15. Litters per Sow per Year in the U.S. and Missouri * .................................... 20
Figure 16. Pigs Per Litter in the U.S. and Missouri ........................................................ 21
Figure 17. Pigs per Litter in Surrounding States, 2005 ................................................... 21
Figure 18. Missouri Yearly Feeder Pig Out Shipments .................................................. 22
Figure 19. Feeder Pig Out Shipments, Percent of Total Missouri Out Shipments to Each
State, 2003 ........................................................................................................................ 23
Figure 20. Missouri Pig Exports by Origin County and Destination State, 2004 ........... 24
Figure 21. Farm Real Estate Percent Change from 2000-2005 and 2005 Values .......... 26
Figure 22. Average Agricultural Real Estate Taxes per Acre in 1995 ........................... 27
Figure 23. Corn Price Basis Map, December 2004 ........................................................ 28
Figure 24. Corn Price Basis Map, May 2003 .............