The World Bank Group
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The World Bank Group's Response to the Global Economic Crisis

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The World Bank Group has responded to the global economic crisis with a strong countercyclical expansion of financing. Its disbursements of $80 billion in the past two fiscal years were the largest among the Multilateral Development Banks. There was notable variation across the WBG, with vastly increased IBRD lending, moderately higher IDA financing, and overall responses from IFC and MIGA that were not counter-cyclical. The differences reflected the interplay of financial capacities, business models, and available instruments. While the level of financial flows is one aspect of crisis response, the crucial aspect is the results achieved with such financing and the related knowledge work of the WBG.
The question going forward concerns the effectiveness and sustainability of the crisis response. Effective and efficient use of funds to sustain growth and ensure macroeconomic stability is more important than ever in view of emerging fiscal deficits and financial stress in client countries. It is vital that the WBG support help clients keep focused on structural reforms for inclusive and environmentally sustainable growth. The WBG needs mechanisms to ensure early warning and preparedness in the face of an increasingly uncertain global environment. Skills and institutional capabilities in key thematic areas, such as the financial sector, need to be maintained. Attention is also needed to ensure that knowledge activities are not crowded out in the face of tight budgets and resource demands resulting from increased lending.

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Publié le 15 mars 2011
Nombre de lectures 105
EAN13 9780821386651
Langue English
Poids de l'ouvrage 4 Mo

PHASE 1
The World Bank Group’s Response
to the Global Economic CrisisThe World Bank Group
WORKING FOR A WORLD FREE
OF POVERTY
he World Bank Group consists of fi ve institutions—Tthe International Bank for Reconstruction and De-
velopment (IBRD), the International Finance Corporation
(IFC), the International Development Association (IDA),
the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA),
and the International Centre for the Settlement of Invest-
ment Disputes (ICSID). Its mission is to fi ght poverty for
lasting results and to help people help themselves and
their environment by providing resources, sharing knowl-
edge, building capacity, and forging partnerships in the
public and private sectors.
The Independent Evaluation Group
IMPROVING DEVELOPMENT RESULTS
THROUGH EXCELLENCE IN EVALUATION
he Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) is an indepen-Tdent, three-part unit within the World Bank Group.
IEG-World Bank is charged with evaluating the activities
of the IBRD (The World Bank) and IDA, IEG-IFC focuses on
assessment of IFC’s work toward private sector develop-
ment, and IEG-MIGA evaluates the contributions of MIGA
guarantee projects and services. IEG reports directly to the
Bank’s Board of Directors through the Director-General,
Evaluation.
The goals of evaluation are to learn from experience, to
provide an objective basis for assessing the results of the
Bank Group’s work, and to provide accountability in the
achievement of its objectives. It also improves Bank Group
work by identifying and disseminating the lessons learned
from experience and by framing recommendations drawn
from evaluation fi ndings.The World Bank Group’s
Response to the
Global Economic Crisis
—PHASE 1—
2011
The World Bank
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Cover photo: Child eating porridge from food bank, Lukula, Tanzania. Photo courtest of Gideon Mendel/Corbis.

ISBN: 978-0-8213-8665-1
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8666-8
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8665-1
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data have been applied for.
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ii | Gender and DevelopmentTable of Contents
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vi
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .viii
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ix
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x
Management Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xxi
Chairperson’s Comments: Committee on
Development Eff ectiveness (CODE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxix
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Evaluation Issues and Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2. The Global Crisis and Its Impact on Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Globalization of the U.S. Financial Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Impact of the Crisis on Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Social Impact of the Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Fiscal and Debt Dynamics: Before and After the Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Comparison with Previous Crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3. The World Bank Group’s Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
World Bank Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
IFC Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
MIGA Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
4. Assessment of the World Bank Group Response. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Assessment of World Bank Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Assessment of the IFC Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Assessment of MIGA’s Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
5. Lessons and Issues for the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Lessons from Past Crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Emerging Lessons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Issues Going Forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80
Appendix A: Evaluation Methodology | iiiStatistical Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110
Photographs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112
Boxes
3.1 Special Thematic Crisis Response Initiatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.2 Velocity of Disbursements: Comparison of DPOs and
Investment Lending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.3 Portfolio of AAA to Inform Lending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3.4 IBRD Capital Adequacy: Evolution of Development Committee Views . . . . 31
3.5 What Low-Income Countries Say about the Bank’s Crisis Performance . . . . 33
3.6 Examples of Projects Originated through the IFC Crisis Initiatives . . . . . . . . . 36
3.7 Examples of IFC’s Crisis-Period Interventions in IDA and
non-IDA Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
4.1 Case Study Countries: Crisis Severity and World Bank and
IMF Financial Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
4.2 Mexico: A Substantial Crisis Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
4.3 Indonesia: Bank Support through Contingency Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
4.4 India: Comprehensive Crisis Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
4.5 Hungary: Delayed Attempt to Support a Graduated Country . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
4.6 Georgia: Bank Readiness and Leadership in a Post-Confl ict Situation . . . . . . 53
4.7 Turkey: Adaptation of an Existing Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
4.8 Georgia: A Systemic Crisis Response by IFC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Figures
2.1 Crisis Chronology, 2007–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.2 Private Capital Flows, 2006–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.1 IBRD/IFC Financing to Developing Countries, Fiscal Years 1990–2010 . . . . . 19
3.2 World Bank Commitments and Disbursements: The Long View . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.3 The Evolving Forecast for 2009: The Bank and Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.4 Impact of Crises on Bank-Fund Collaboration in LICs and MICs . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.5 Implementation of IFC’s Global Crisis Initiatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
3.6 IFC Investment Commitments, Fiscal Years 2005–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.7 Net IFC Commitments by Region, Fiscal Years 2008–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
3.8 ommitments by IDA Status, Fiscal Years 2006–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
3.9 IFC Instrument Mix, Fiscal Years 2008–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.10 Net IFC Commitments by Industry Cluster, Fiscal Years 2008–10 . . . . . . . . . . 43
iv | The World Bank Group’s Response to the Global Economic Crisis3.11 MIGA: Volume of Guarantees Issued by Region, Fiscal Years 2008–10 . . . . . . 44
4.1 Changes in Net IFC Commitments and Net Private Investment
by Income Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63
4.2 Productivity of IFC Investment Staff , Fiscal Years 2008–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
4.3 IFC Financing Projections, 2009–13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
4.4 Additionality and Development Outcomes of IFC Investment
Operations in Past Crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Tables
2.1 Growth Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2 Poverty in Developing Countries, Alternative Scenarios, 2005–20 . . . . . . . . . 13
2.3 General Government Gross Debt by Country Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.4 ernment Balance by Country Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3.1 World Bank Group Commitments, Fiscal Years 2008–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.2 IFI Financial Flows, Fiscal Years 2009–10. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
3.3 Regional Shares of Bank Lending Commitments and Disbursements . . . . . 21
3.4 World Bank Operational Productivity for New Lending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.5 IFC’s Crisis Initiatives: Funding and Deployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3.6 Staff Mix in IFC Investment Operations, 2008–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
3.7 Countries with Largest Net Commitment Changes by IDA Status . . . . . . . . . 41
3.8 Changes in Net IFC Commitments by Subsector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.9 MIGA Projects and Guarantee Volume, Fiscal Years 2008–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.10 MIGA: Volume of Guarantees Issued by Sector, Fiscal Years 2008–10 . . . . . . . 43
4.1 Selected Development Policy Operations Approved in
Fiscal Years 2009–10. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54
4.2 Net IFC Commitments and Net Private Investment Relative to
Changes in Country Risk Perceptions, 2008–09 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
4.3 Changes in Private Investments of Multilateral Development Banks,
2007–09 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
4.4 Private Sector Deals Supported Jointly by IFC and Other IFIs in
Case Study Countries, 2008–10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
4.5 Performance of the GTFP and the GTLP, July 2008 to June 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . 69
4.6 Nature of IFC Investments in Case Study Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Table of Contents | vAbbreviations
AAA Analytic and advisory activities
ADB Asian Development Bank
AFD Agence Française De Développement
AfDB African Development Bank
AMC Asset Management Company
CDB Caribbean Development Bank
CODE Committee on Development Ef ectiveness
DARP Debt and Asset Recovery Program
DBSA Development Bank of Southern Africa
DDO Deferred drawdown option
DEC Development Economics Department
DEG German Finance Company for Investments in Developing Countries
DFIs Development f nancial institutions/direct foreign investments
DPL Development Policy Loan
DPO Development policy operation
EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
EC European Communities
EIB European Investment Bank
ESW Economic and sector work
EU European Union
FMO Netherlands Development Finance Company
FPD Financial and Private Sector Development Department
FSAP Financial Sector Assessment Program
GDP Gross domestic product
GFRP Global Food Response Program
GTFP Global Trade Finance Program
GTLP rade Liquidity Program
HDN Human Development Network
IADB Inter-American Development Bank
IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ICF Infrastructure Crisis Facility
IDA International Development Association
IDC Investissement Développement Conseil Sa
IEG Independent Evaluation Group
IFC International Finance Corporation
IFI International f nancial institution
IMF International Monetary Fund
INFRA Infrastructure Recovery and Assets Platform
IsDB Islamic Development Bank
JBIC Japan Bank of International Cooperation
KfW German Development Bank
LIBOR London interbank of ered rate
LIC Low-income country
MDB Multilateral development bank
vi | The World Bank Group’s Response to the Global Economic CrisisMDGs Millennium Development Goals
M&E Monitoring and evaluation
MEF Microf nance Enhancement Facility
MFI Microf nance institution
MIC Middle-income country
MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OPCS Operations Policy and Country Services (World Bank)
OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
PREM Poverty Reduction and Economic Management
RSR Rapid Social Response (Program)
SDN Social Development Network
SMEs Small and medium enterprises
SWAps Sector-wide approaches
Abbreviations | viiAcknowledgments
T is report presents f ndings of the f rst phase of an Indepen- Department and Chief Economist for the International Fi-
dent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluation of the World Bank nance Corporation.
Group’s response to the global economic crisis. T e second
Comments received from World Bank Group management
phase of the evaluation is expected to be completed in 2011.
on an earlier draf of this report are gratefully acknowledged.
T is evaluation was conducted by a team led by Ismail Ar-
In addition, the evaluation benef ted from comments and
slan and Daniel Crabtree, drawing on contributions from
suggestions raised, notably by the Bank’s Chief Economist
(in alphabetical order) Federico Arcelli, Amitava Banerjee,
and Regional Chief Economists, during an informal discus-Shahrokh Fardoust, Ann Flanagan, Nils Fostvedt, Javed
sion meeting convened by the Director-General.Hamid, Houqi Hong, Sarwat Jahan, Basil Kavalsky, Carla
Pazce, Manuel Peñalver-Quesada, Anwesha Prabhu, Joanne T is f rst phase of the evaluation was overseen by an IEG
Salop, Marcelo Selowsky, and Steven Webb. Agnes Santos Steering Committee comprising Daniela Gressani, Deputy
and Richard Kraus were responsible for administrative and to the Director-General, Evaluation, and Senior Advisor; Ali
production aspects. Caroline McEuen edited the document. Khadr, Senior Manager, IEG-World Bank; Marvin Taylor-
Dormond, Director, IEG-International Finance Corpora-T e peer reviewers for this f rst phase of the evaluation were
tion (IFC); and Stoyan Tenev, Head of Macro Evaluation, Johannes Linn, Senior Resident Fellow, Emerging Markets
IEG-IFC. T e evaluation is conducted under the guidance Forum, and former World Bank Vice President for Europe
of Cheryl Gray, Marvin Taylor-Dormond, and Christine I. and Central Asia, and Guy Pfef ermann, Chief Executive
Wallich. T e work is carried out under the overall leadership Of cer and Chairman of the Board at the Global Business
School Network and a former Director of the Economics of Vinod T omas, Director-General, Evaluation.
Director-General, Evaluation: Vinod T omas
Director, IEG-World Bank: Cheryl Gray
Director, IEG-IFC: Marvin Taylor-Dormond
Director, IEG-MIGA: Christine I. Wallich
Senior Manager, IEGCR-World Bank: Ali Khadr
Head, Macro Evaluation, IEG-IFC: Stoyan Tenev
Task Manager, IEG: Ismail Arslan
Task Manager, IEG: Daniel J. Crabtree
viii | The World Bank Group’s Response to the Global Economic Crisis