Wheat Comment 10-27-09

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Wheat Morning Update & Commentary Monday’s trade shaped up to be a continuation of the Reversal seen on Friday. Wheat looks poised to test the $5.20 to $5.25 area. Plantings in the HRW and SRW Belts continue to run behind schedule. Crop progress pegged 76% of the US winter wheat crop planted up from last week's 69% and long term average plantings of 85%. 59% of the Winter Wheat crop has emerged, up from the prior week's 48%. A year ago at this time 66% had, while the long term average is 66%. Winter Wheat was rated 62% good to excellent vs. 65% last year. Merchandisers say the UN bought 65,000 mt of Black Sea origin Wheat as food aid for Ethiopia. Bangladesh and Iraq remain around the market, but Japan is notably absent. As a response to low cash prices, Russia announced that it will begin a grain intervention program starting on November 2nd. Basis values remain flat, despite the 10 percent rally in wheat futures. SRW Basis remains burdened by a full pipeline. HRW has firmed as more buyers seem to be stepping into the market. PNW pipeline remains full. India's farm ministry said the country hopes to produce 82 mln mt of Wheat in the 09/10 crop year, up from the 80.6 mln mt in 08/09. Overnight markets had fairly active trade with Chicago trading 4855 contracts. Chicago closed down 3 1/2 cents. Kansas City finished overnight trade up 1 1/2 cents and MPLS closed down 3 31/2 cents. Kansas City/Chicago spread is now trading at 8 3/4 in the DEC. The MPLS ...

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• Publié par: Maceb
• Nombre de lectures: 21
• Langue: English

Extrait

http://www.linngroup.com

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312.896.2001

Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be

reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for

informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates

may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wheat Morning Update & Commentary

Monday’s trade shaped up to be a continuation of the Reversal seen on Friday. Wheat looks poised to

test the $5.20 to $5.25 area. Plantings in the HRW and SRW Belts continue to run behind schedule.

Crop progress pegged 76% of the US winter wheat crop planted up from last week's 69% and long term

average plantings of 85%. 59% of the Winter Wheat crop has emerged, up from the prior week's 48%. A

year ago at this time 66% had, while the long term average is 66%. Winter Wheat was rated 62% good

to excellent vs. 65% last year. Merchandisers say the UN bought 65,000 mt of Black Sea origin Wheat

as food aid for Ethiopia. Bangladesh and Iraq remain around the market, but Japan is notably absent. As

a response to low cash prices, Russia announced that it will begin a grain intervention program starting

on November 2nd.

Basis values remain flat, despite the 10 percent rally in wheat futures. SRW Basis

remains burdened by a full pipeline. HRW has firmed as more buyers seem to be stepping into the

market. PNW pipeline remains full. India's farm ministry said the country hopes to produce 82 mln mt

of Wheat in the 09/10 crop year, up from the 80.6 mln mt in 08/09.

Overnight markets had fairly active trade with Chicago trading 4855 contracts. Chicago closed down 3

1/2 cents. Kansas City finished overnight trade up 1 1/2 cents and MPLS closed down 3 31/2 cents.

Kansas City/Chicago spread is now trading at 8 3/4 in the DEC. The MPLS/Chicago spread is back out

to 18 3/4 cents. Euronext (Matif) Milling Wheat continues to gain with a last trade at $5.16/bu USD in

the Nov.

Globex Overnight

Contract

Last

Net Change

High Low

Volume

ZWZ9

523^4 -3^4

529^2 521^0 4855

ZWH10

542^0 -4^2

547^0 539^6 537

ZWK10

552^0 -5^6

552^0 551^0 4

ZWN10

563^2 -3^6

567^4 561^6 214

KEZ9

532^2 1^2

534^6 526^4 482

KEH10

548^0 0^6

549^2 542^6 102

MWEZ9

542^2 -3^4

544^4 537^0 164

MWEH10

557^6 -5^0

557^6 557^6 1

Early Opening Calls: off 2-3 cents

Top News

-- Merchandisers say the UN bought 65,000 mt of Black Sea origin Wheat as food aid for Ethiopia

-- Japanese Ag Ministry announced that it would skip its weekly Thursday Wheat tender this week, but

will likley return next week.

-- Approximately 76% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted up from last week's 69% and long

term average plantings of 85%.

http://www.linngroup.com

Page 2 of 2

312.896.2001

Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be

reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for

informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates

may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

-- India's farm ministry said the country hopes to produce 82 mln mt of Wheat in the 09/10 crop year, up

from the 80.6 mln mt in 08/09

-- Ukraine Ag Ministry data shows the country as of Oct 23 harvested 94% of its grain crops bringing in

43.3 mln mt of grain on bunkerweight basis.

Average yield is 2.96 mt/ha

-- Latest weekly USDA data shows 59% of the Winter Wheat crop has emerged, up from the prior

week's 48%. A year ago at this time 66% had, while the long term average is 66%.

-- Winter Wheat was rated 62% good to excellent vs. 65% last year.

-- Monday's USDA Weekly Wheat Inspections: 14.336 mln bu ; expected 17.5 mln bu

-- Pending Tender: Oct 26th is bid deadline for 100,000 mt plus Wheat tender floated by Iraq's Grain

Board on Tuesday, acc. to their website.

-- Pending Tender: Japan's Ag Ministry also floated Oct 29th SBS tender for 52,200 mt of food grade

Wheat

-- Pending Tender: 60,000 mt of optional origin Wheat is sought by Bangladesh's gov't in a November

16th tender deadline

-- Pending Tender: A new 100,000 mt of Wheat tender for Dec 2nd was issued by Bangladesh state run

grainary, acc. to traders

-- Liffe Jan milling wheat futures were off -1.00 euro at 130.0 euros/mt.

-- Globex Wheat Vol. 98,250; Pit Vol. 3,307; Open Interest Change: + 46

-- Weather: 6-10 day Forecast: Normal to Below Temps. Normal to Below Precip

-- Outside markets: Energy Complex +0.25 at $78.93; Gold & Silver: -1.6 at $1041.2 & -0.045 at

$17.050; US $ -0.090 at $76.105

Cash Markets

-- CIF SR Wheat steady:: Oct. -10 to -?? Nov. -5 to +10 Dec. Opt. to +15

--

John Christopher

Linn Group

312.896.2061