A time-space constrained approach for modeling travel and activity patterns [Elektronische Ressource] / Andreas Justen. Gutachter: Barbara Lenz ; Francisco Javier Martínez Concha ; Christian Schiller

Andreas Justen

Informations

• Publié par: humboldt-universitat_zu_berlin
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2011
• Nombre de lectures: 22
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

A Time-Space Constrained Approach
for Modeling Travel and Activity Patterns

Dissertation

zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades
Dr. rer. nat. im Fach Geographie

eingereicht an der
Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät II
der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
von
Diplom Geograph Andreas Justen



Präsident der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin:
Prof. Dr. Jan-Hendrik Olbertz
Dekan der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät II:
Prof. Dr. Elmar Kulke

Gutachter/in:
1. Prof. Dr. Barbara Lenz
2. Prof. Francisco Javier Martínez Concha, PhD
3. PD Dr. Christian Schiller

eingereicht: 04.05.2011
Tag der Verteidigung: 14.07.2011

Acknowledgement
At first, I would like to thank my supervisor Prof. Francisco Martínez (University of Chile,
Santiago, Division of Transport Engineering) for his encouragement, his support and patience.
I am grateful for his generous expert guidance through this ‘scientific journey’, that is the
PhD. I owe thanks to Prof. Dr. Barbara Lenz for being my supervisor and the opportunity to
develop the study at the DLR Institute of Transport Research, Berlin. She always offered me
advice and supported this project and my professional career. Special thanks to PD Dr.
Christian Schiller (University of Dresden, Department Theory of Transportation Planning) for
valuable discussions and accepting the appraisal of the thesis. Special thanks are due also to
Prof. Cristián Cortés (University of Chile, Santiago) who gave me sound advice during
innumerable working sessions in Santiago and in Berlin.
I also wish to extend my gratitude to all my colleagues at the DLR Institute of Transport
Research. In particular I appreciated the stimulating discussions and the professional company
of my colleague Rita Cyganski in the past years. Many thanks are devoted to Katja Köhler for
her advice on statistics and to Stefan Trommer for our conversations and his sympathy also at
tougher moments.
My appreciation is deemed to the colleagues from the Division of Transport Engineering at
the University of Chile who were generous with their time, insight, and hospitality during my
working stays in Chile. Felipe Sanhueza provided me with information on Santiago models of
transport and land use. Alan Thomas and Esteban Godoy from Sectra (Secretaría de
Planificación de Transporte) in Santiago offered support and willingly provided information.
The PhD was initiated during the course of the research initiative ‘Risk Habitat Megacity’,
funded by the Helmholtz-Association. Thus I am grateful to the project managers – in person
to Dirk Heinrichs and Kerstin Krellenberg – for the opportunity to be part of the project and
participate in the activities organized to provide and advance exchange between the Chilean
and German PhD students.
Mein ganz besonderer Dank gilt meinen Eltern Wolfgang und Christiane, die mich seit jeher
voll und ganz in meinen Ideen und Vorhaben unterstützen. Vielen Dank für Eure motivierende
Zusprache und das grenzenlose Vertrauen. Danke an meine Schwester Anja und Heiko für
viele befreiende Treffen, an denen es gerade nicht um die Doktorarbeit ging. Ja, und ganz
vorne stehen bei dieser Danksagung müsste eigentlich Ana. Gracias por tu apoyo ilimitado y
tu capacidad de hacer que este trabajo haya sido una experiencia sumamente positiva para mí.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ___________________________________________________ 2
LIST OF TABLES _________________________ 5
LIST OF FIGURES ________________________ 6
LIST OF FORMULAS ______________________ 7
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG ____________________________________________________ 8
ABSTRACT ______________________________ 9
1 INTRODUCTION _____________________ 10
1.1 Objectives and approach ____________________ 11
1.2 Chapter structure __________________________ 13
2 A REVIEW OF TRANSPORT DEMAND MODELS ________________________ 14
2.1 Trip-based approaches ______________________________________________________ 14
2.2 Trip-chaining approaches____________________ 18
2.3 Activity-based approaches ___________________ 22
2.4 Constraints and the role of time geography ______________________________________ 26
2.5 Summary 29
3 METHODOLOGY FOR THE MODELING OF ACTIVITY AND TRAVEL
PATTERN _______________________________________________________________ 32
3.1 The hierarchical structure of choices ___________ 32
3.1.1 The concept of macro and micro processes ________________________________ 35
3.1.2 Hierarchies of decision-making in daily travel ______________________________ 37
3.1.3 The hierarchical tour – terminology ______ 39
3.2 The hierarchical tour – methodology ___________ 41
3.3 Research questions _________________________________________________________ 50
4 DATA AND MODELS: EVIDENCES FROM SANTIAGO ___________________ 52
4.1 Santiago transport and land-use models ________________________________________ 52
4.2 EOD: Santiago Travel and Household Survey ___ 56
4.3 Activity and travel behavior in Santiago ________ 56
4.3.1 Summary on main data preparation steps __ 57
4.3.2 Activity prioritization _________________ 59
4.3.3 Tours and activity patterns _____________ 66
4.4 Summary ________________________________________________________________ 71
5 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF TIME-SPACE CONSTRAINTS ________________ 72
5.1 Dependency of mode choices ________________________________ 73
5.2 Total daily travel time ______________________ 76
5.3 Daily activity times ________________________ 77
5.3.1 Grouping of activity starting times and duration ____________________________ 77
5.3.2 Influence factors on time regimes ________ 81

5.4 Detour factors ____________________________________________________________ 84
5.4.1 Conceptual background _______________ 84
5.4.2 Empirical detour factors 87
5.5 Local attraction ___________________________ 94
5.5.1 Attractiveness _______________________ 95
5.5.2 Tour relations 96
5.5.3 Accessibility ________________________________________________________ 98
5.6 Summary _______________________________ 100
6 MODEL APPLICATION AND RESULTS ________________________________ 102
6.1 Estimation of pattern demand _______________ 103
6.2 The hierarchical choice process ______________ 105
6.2.1 Defining the search space _____________ 105
6.2.2 The daily travel time restriction ________ 107
6.2.3 Matching level: search spaces and EOD __ 109
6.2.4 Ranking of secondary activities locations _________________________________ 110
6.2.5 The final choice set __________________________________________________ 112
6.3 The spatial path flow ______________________ 117
6.4 Calibration of destination choice _____________ 119
6.4.1 Scenario: Adjusted travel times ________ 123
6.4.2 Visualization of spatial path flow _______ 127
6.5 Time regimes: EOD and model ______________ 128
6.6 Reduction of choice options: quantification ____________________________________ 129
7 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ________ 132
7.1 Transferability of the approach ______________ 133
7.2 The magical number seven _________________________________________________ 135
7.3 Suggestions for further development __________ 135
7.4 Closing remarks __________________________ 138
REFERENCES ________________________________ 140
ANNEX ________________________________ 145
Annex-1: Aggregation of travel purposes ___________ 145
Annex-2: Mode combination probabilities __________ 150
Annex-3: Final choice set _______________________ 151
Annex-4: Time regimes: duration of primary activity _ 152
Annex-5: Daily travel times by mode combinations: model and EOD _____________________ 153
DIGITAL ANNEX ________________________________ 154

List of tables
Table 3.1: Time hierarchies for activities ...............................................................................................34
Table 4.1: Household user groups by income and car ownership ..........................55
Table 4.2: Primary activities durations ...................................63
Table 4.3: Typology of activity patterns .................................................................69
Table 5.1: Daily travel time by mode combination ................................................................................76
Table 5.2: Correlation between time regimes, user groups and city sectors ..........82
Table 5.3: Detour factors by mode combination ....................88
Table 5.4: Detour factors by primary activity duration ..........................................................................89
Table 5.5: Detour factors by user group .................................89
Table 5.6: Detour factors by distance between home and work .............................................................89
Table 5.7: Influence of distance and time on detour factors - parameter estimates ...............................92
Table 5.8: Detour factors by time periods and distance categories ........................94
Table 5.9: Share of home and work related tours by mode combinations ..............................................97
Table 5.10: OD travel times by mode and time slots ............