Assessing global change from a regional perspective [Elektronische Ressource] : an economic close-up of climate change and migration / vorgelegt von Markus Zimmer

Markus Zimmer

Informations

• Publié par: ludwig-maximilians-universitat_munchen
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2008
• Nombre de lectures: 13
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 2 Mo

Extrait

Assessing Global Change
from a Regional Perspective:

An Economic Close-Up of
Climate Change and Migration




Markus Zimmer







München 2008
Assessing Global Change
from a Regional Perspective:

An Economic Close-Up of
Climate Change and Migration

Inaugural-Dissertation
Zur Erlangung des Grades Doctor oeconomiae publicae (Dr. oec. publ.)
an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

2008

vorgelegt von

Markus Zimmer

Referent: Prof. Dr. Peter Egger
Korreferent: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Hans-Werner Sinn

Promotionsabschlussberatung am Mittwoch, den 16. Juli 2008













Unless we change direction, we are likely to end up where we are going.
Chinese proverb Contents

Preface 11

Part One: Climate and the Industry

Chapter 1.1: Does Climate Change Matter?
Regional Water-Related Environmental Issues of Climate Change from
the Perspective of a Corporation 17

Introduction 18
GLOWA-Danube and DANUBIA: A Multidisciplinary Environmental
Decision Support System 21
The Proxel Concept 25
Results 31
Water Contingents 31
Water withdrawal and water shortage 33
Water quality 36
Investments in water-saving technologies 36
How to Save Water in the Production Process 37
Conclusion 39




Chapter 1.2: GLOWA–Danube
Steps Towards the Global Change Decision Support System DANUBIA 43

Introduction 44
The Industrial Agent 44
Behind the Scenes: The Macroeconomic Model 46
Constructing an Industrial Agent 49
Implementation of the Agent-Based Industry Model in the DANUBIA Decision
Support System 51
On Stage: How Does the Industrial Agent Perform? 54

Chapter 1.3: For What It’s Worth!
The Value of Polluting Water for Industrial Production 57

Introduction 58
The Water Cycle does Not Care for Administrative Borders 59
Pollution Measures and Resource Consumption 61
Data 62
Extension of the Translog-Production Function Framework 63
For What It’s Worth 66
Results 70
Conclusion 72

Appendix to Part One:
(Ap. I.I) Discussion Guidelines for the Visited Production Sites and
the Telephone Interviews 75
(Ap. I.II) STATA-code for estimation 77 Part Two: Domestic Migration

Chapter 2.1: Where are We Going?
Agent-Based Modelling of the Population 83

Introduction 84
The Population in DANUBIA 85
The Projection of the Population in Population Units 86
Comparison of the Data of the Official Statistics 89
Implementation of an Agent-Based Demography Model 91
Objects Behind the Tool 97
Results 101

Chapter 2.2: Network Effects on Domestic Migration Flows
Across Germany
A Spatial Autoregressive Perspective with Spatially Structured Origin
and Destination Effects and Heteroskedastic Innovations 105

Introduction 106
Background of the Economic Model 108
Data 111
Spatial Structure of Origin-Destination Flows 113
The Econometric Model 115
The GM Estimator for the Autoregressive Disturbance Parameters 118
Choice of Instruments 121
Estimation Results 122
Comparing the Specification-Specific Results 124 Does Gender and Nationality Matter for Migration Behaviour? 127
Sensitivity Analysis 130
Conclusions 132

Appendix to Part Two:
(Ap. II.I) Construction of the Vector of Migration-Flows 135
(Ap. II.II) Limiting Properties of the Autoregressive Parameters 138
(Ap. II.III) The Trace Calculation 138
(Ap. II.IV) A Note on the Calculation of the Moran’s I Statistics 139
(Ap. II.V) Sample STATA-Code for the Estimation of the SARAR(2,2)
Model for the Total Population 141

References 153