Consideration of environmental changes in long-term radioactive waste disposal system evaluations

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ISSN 1018­5593 ***
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European Comr nission
nUCI62
lölogv and teohn
Consideration of environmental changes
in long-term radioactive waste
disposal system evaluations European Commission
nuclear science
and technology
Consideration of environmental changes
in long-term radioactive waste
disposal system evaluations
F. Recreo (coordinator), A. García-Olivares Rodríguez,
A. Franco Herrero, C. Torres Vidal, P. Prado Herrero
Ciemat
Av. Complutense 22
E-28040 Madrid
C. Bajos Parada,
Enresa
Calle E. Vargas 7
E-28043 Madrid
Contract No FI2W-CT92-0123
Final report
Work performed as part of the European Atomic Energy Community's
shared-cost programme (1990-94) on
'Management and storage of radioactive waste'
Task 5: Methods of evaluating the safety of disposal systems
Directorate-General
Science, Research and Development
1996 EUR 16751 EN LEGAL NOTICE
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on
behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the
following information
Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1996
ISBN 92-827-6168-1
© ECSC-EC-EAEC, Brussels · Luxembourg, 1996
Reproduction is authorized, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged
Printed in Luxembourg CONTENTS
Chapter A. BASIS FOR SAFETY EVALUATION OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE
WASTE DISPOSAL SYSTEMS 3
Al. INTRODUCTION
A.2. SAFETY OBJECTIVES 7
A.2.1. Burden on future generations
A.2.2. Protection of the environment 8
A.2.3.n of human health
A3. SAFETY CRITERIA AND INDICATORS 9
A3.1. Radiological Protection Criteria and indicators
A3.2. Other criteria and indicators 14
A.4. ASSESSMENT OF THE DEGREE OF SAFETY OBTAINED 18
Chapter B. ENVIRONMENTAL VARIATIONS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE
DISPOSAL SYSTEM 21
B.l. ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 2
B.l.l. Basis of environmental variation
B.1.2. Processes generating variation of climate2
B2. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 30
B.2.1. A brief history of climate 3
B.2.2. Palaeoclimatic indicators3
B.23. Geological evidence of orbital/climate cycles6
B3. EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL VARIATION ON THE REPOSITORY
PERFORMANCE7
B3.1. Impact on the geological setting
B3.2.t on the geosphere-biosphere interface 48
B33.t on the biosphere environment 51
Chapter C. HUMAN CAPACITY TO PREDICT ENVIRONMENTAL EVOLUTION 5
CI. ELEMENTS PARTICIPATING INL VARIABILITY
C.1.1. The theory of the climate system
III C. 1.2. The variability of the climate system 64
C.2. CURRENT CAPACITY OF EVALUATION AND PREDICTION 7
C.2.1. Modelling of the climate and its effect on the biosphere and
geosphere 76
C.2.2. Mechanismic climate system models7
C.2.3. Predictive phenomenological and semi-phenomenological models 81
C.2.4. Stochastic models : Prediction of climatic variability and its basic
effects on geospheric and biospheric systems. 84
C.3. AVAILABLE METHODS, MODELS AND TECHNIQUES9
C.3.1. Discussion of some specific climatic models
C.3.2. Modelling of the response of the geospheric and biospheric systems
to the climate changes 97
Chapter D. CONSIDERATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SAFETY
ASSESSMENT OF DISPOSAL SYSTEMS 103
D.I. THE NEED TO CONSIDERL CHANGE
D.2. EXISTING METHODS AND TECHNIQUES5
D3. APPROACHES OF DIFFERENT COUNTRIES TO CONSIDERATION OF
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 112
D.3.1. EU Countries
UNITED KINGDOM
FRANCE8
HOLLAND 124
BELGIUM5
SPAIN7
JOINT EUROPEAN STUDIES
D.3.2. Other Countries9
THE UNITED STATES
SWEDEN 13
CANADA5
Chapter E. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS WITHIN THE EVEREST PROJECT 13
E.l. THE EVEREST PROJECT
E.l.l. Scenario selection 140
E.2. SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR CLAY4
IV E.2.1. The Mol Site. Scenario description 144
E.2.2. Scenario Description for the French Clay Site 150
E3. SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR GRANITE
E.3.1. Scenario Description for the French Granite Site
E.4. SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR SALT - 158
E.4.1. Scenario Description for the Dutch Site 158
E.4.2.on for the Gorleben Site 160
E.4.3. Scenario Description for the French Salt Site2
Chapter F. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 165
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 179
REFERENCES 181
TABLE 212
ILLUSTRATIONS3
V CHAPTER A