Development and application of a model interface to couple land surface models with regional climate models for climate change risk assessment in the upper Danube watershed [Elektronische Ressource] / vorgelegt von Thomas Marke
220 pages
English

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Development and application of a model interface to couple land surface models with regional climate models for climate change risk assessment in the upper Danube watershed [Elektronische Ressource] / vorgelegt von Thomas Marke

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Development and Application of a Model Interface To couple Land Surface Models with Regional Climate Models For Climate Change Risk Assessment In the Upper Danube Watershed Dissertation der Fakultät für Geowissenschaften der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München vorgelegt von: Thomas Marke aus München Eingereicht am: 04.08.2008 1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Wolfram Mauser 2. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Karsten Schulz Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 10.10.2008 „Alle reden vom Wetter, aber keiner unternimmt was dagegen.“ Karl Valentin (1882-1948) Preface PREFACE In the last decades regional climate models (RCMs) have proven their ability to provide valuable information about potential future changes in the earth’s climate system. Research projects like GLOWA-Danube (Global Change of the Water Cycle) are given the possibility to utilize RCM simulations as meteorological drivers for land surface model components. To adequately describe all sorts of water fluxes in the research area of the Upper Danube watershed the different components of the interdisciplinary DANUBIA model require data in high spatial and temporal resolution.

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Publié par
Publié le 01 janvier 2008
Nombre de lectures 17
Langue English
Poids de l'ouvrage 26 Mo

Extrait



Development and Application of a Model Interface
To couple Land Surface Models with Regional Climate Models
For Climate Change Risk Assessment
In the Upper Danube Watershed



Dissertation
der Fakultät für Geowissenschaften
der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München







vorgelegt von:
Thomas Marke
aus München


Eingereicht am: 04.08.2008











































1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Wolfram Mauser
2. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Karsten Schulz


Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 10.10.2008







































„Alle reden vom Wetter, aber keiner unternimmt was dagegen.“
Karl Valentin (1882-1948)

Preface

PREFACE
In the last decades regional climate models (RCMs) have proven their ability to provide
valuable information about potential future changes in the earth’s climate system. Research
projects like GLOWA-Danube (Global Change of the Water Cycle) are given the possibility to
utilize RCM simulations as meteorological drivers for land surface model components. To
adequately describe all sorts of water fluxes in the research area of the Upper Danube
watershed the different components of the interdisciplinary DANUBIA model require data in
high spatial and temporal resolution. While the latter can be satisfactorily provided by most
RCMs, the spatial resolution at which atmospheric processes can be resolved is
computationally limited to at best 10 x 10 km at present. A clear need has been identified to
develop appropriate methods to bridge the gap between RCMs and high resolution land
surface models. The application of such downscaling techniques is in particularly necessary
in highly complex terrain, where the limited spatial resolution of RCM simulations does not
fully capture the natural climatic variability. In the present work a model interface has been
developed that provides adequate scaling techniques to overcome the mismatch between
the model scales permitting the investigation of climate change impacts at regional to local
scales.
Besides the downscaling of meteorological simulations, the coupler scales up fluxes
calculated at the land surface and provides the aggregated fluxes as inputs for the RCMs. As
the latter allows to consider the nonlinearity and complexity of the interactions between the
atmosphere and the land surface as well as the mutual dependency of the respective
processes at the investigated scale the approach can be expected to contribute to a better
understanding of the complex land-atmosphere-system. A comprehensive description of the
implemented algorithms is given. Further first results of one-way coupled model runs using
the regional climate model REMO to simulate the atmosphere and the hydrological model
PROMET to describe all hydrological relevant processes at the land surface are presented.
By comparing the results achieved for a potential future climate to those achieved for past
climate conditions the climate change impact on the water resources is analyzed.
The model interface SCALMET has been developed in the framework of the GLOWA-
Danube Project at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University in Munich. The financial funding of
GLOWA-Danube by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMB+F) is gratefully
acknowledged.
At this point, I want to take the chance to thank all those people who have directly or
indirectly contributed to the successful fulfillment of this work. First of all, I would like to
express my deepest gratefulness to my supervisor and doctor father Prof. Dr. Wolfram
Mauser. He not only gave me the opportunity to work in the fascinating field of coupled land-Preface

atmosphere modeling after my graduation, but supported me for the whole duration of my
work. His inspiring comments as well as the confidence he placed in me enabled me to
develop and realize my own ideas. Beyond his support in the process of this thesis, I was
given the opportunity to gain valuable experience by giving student courses and organizing
field trips. Finally, I would like to thank him for the excellent working conditions as well as for
the technical infrastructure I was provided. Both have been fundamental for the successful
outcome of this work.
For taking on the second review of this work, I want to express my deepest gratefulness to
Prof. Dr. Karsten Schulz.
As an interdisciplinary work can only be successfully realized with interdisciplinary support,
my special thanks go to my project partners in the field of atmospheric science. I would like
to thank Dr. Daniela Jacob for providing me the climate model simulations used in the
framework of this work. I further thank her and the whole REMO developer team at the MPI-
M (Dr. Sven Kotlarski, Holger Göttel, Swantje Preuschmann, Dr. Susanne Pfeifer and Dr.
Stefan Hagemann) for the invaluable insights in the regional climate model REMO. Cordial
thanks also go to Dr. Günther Zängl and Andreas Pfeiffer who kept supporting me with
meteorological advice and expert knowledge concerning the regional climate model MM5.
Further, I would like to thank all other project partners whose names are not mentioned here
explicitly for the valuable insights into their disciplines and their willing cooperation.
Apart from the developers of the meteorological model components I would like to thank all
colleagues who have contributed to the development of the PROMET model. Prof. Dr.
Wolfram Mauser, Dr. Heike Bach, Tobias Hank, Markus Muerth, Monika Prasch and Daniel
Waldmann should be explicitly mentioned here. Thank you for all your support and the
valuable discussions concerning the different components of the PROMET model.
I greatly appreciate the friendly spirit at my working place and would like to thank all my
colleagues at the institute for the excellent working atmosphere. Special thanks go to Dr.
Alexander Löw, Dr. Ulrich Strasser and Dr. Florian Siebel, who have always helped me out
with scientific advice even when they were very busy themselves. For the supply of
meteorological data I want to thank Ruth Weidinger and Andrea Reiter, in particular.
I would also like to thank my office roommates Tobias Hank, Mathias Bernhardt and Florian
Zabel for the very special atmosphere and all the valuable discussions in our office.

Finally, my thanks go to all my friends who encouraged me to take on and complete this
thesis and, particularly, to my parents and my girlfriend Stefanie Mayer for their loyal and
unlimited support, patience and understanding. Above all I want to thank my mum for all that
she is and for all that she does. It is her I want to dedicate this work to. Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................. I 
LIST OF TABLES ............. VII 
LIST OF ACRONYMS ..... VIII 
LIST OF SYMBOLS ........... X 
SUMMARY .................. XVI 
1  INTRODUCTION ...... 1 
1.1  THE ROLE OF NUMERICAL MODELS IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH ......................................................................... 1 
1.2  STATE OF THE ART ........................................................................................................................................... 2 
1.2.1  General Characteristics Of Climate Models ....................................................................................... 2 
1.2.2  Effects of a limited spatial resolution................................................................................................. 4 
1.2.3  Downscaling Techniques .................................................................................................................... 5 
1.3  GLOWA‐DANUBE ........... 9 
1.4  MOTIVATION OF THIS THESIS ........................................................................................................................... 11 
2  THE UPPER DANUBE WATERSHED ........................................................................................................ 15 
2.1  CLIMATE ..................................................................................................................................................... 16 
2.2  HYDROLOGY ................. 18 
2.3  GEOMORPHOLOGY&#

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