Energy policy, economic cooperation, and sustainable development in Central Asia [Elektronische Ressource] : the case of Uzbekistan / vorgelegt von Sagdullaev Djakhangir

Informations

• Publié par: justus-liebig-universitat_giessen
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2005
• Nombre de lectures: 20
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Energy Policy, Economic Cooperation, and Sustainable
Development in Central Asia:
the case of Uzbekistan










Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades (Dr.rer.soc.)
des Fachbereichs Gesellschaftswissenschaften der Justus-Liebig-
Universität








Vorgelegt von

Sagdullaev Djakhangir

aus Taschkent










iiCONTENTS

Acknowledgements…………………………………………………………………………………….....v

List of Diagrams and Boxes……………………………………………………………………………...vi

List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………………………..vi

List of Acronyms…………………………………………………………………………………….…..vii

I. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………1

Chapter II. THE ESSENCE AND PRIORITIES OF ECONOMIC REFORMS IN UZBEKISTAN IN THE
YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE
2.1. Uzbekistan under the Plan System: Process and Consequences……………………………………15

2.2. The Transformation Process and its Outcome in the Last Decade
2.2.1. The Choice of Further Development Strategy: Possibilities and Contradictions.
The Essence of the “Uzbek Economic Model”………………………………………..………..27
2.2.2. The Key Spheres of Reforms during the First Phase (1991-1996)
Determination of Priorities…………………………………………………………….....32
Fiscal and Monetary Policies……………………………..35
Institutional and Structural Reforms…………………………………………...39
2.2.3. Tasks for the Second Phase (1997-2002)……………………………………………………….42
Deepening Structural Transformation………………………………………………………43
The Priorities of Investment Policy…………………………45
Overview of Changes in the External Sector………….………………………………….…48
New Opportunities for Small and Medium-size Enterprises…………..51
2.3. Against the Challenges of Transition
2.3.1. Discourses on the Overall Strategy of Reforms………………………………………………...54
2.3.2. Unemployment…………………………………………………………….62
2.3.3. Income and Poverty……………………………………………..64
2.3.4. Structural Changes and SMB……………………………………………...66
2.3.5. Challenges in the Financial Sector………………………………………..68
2.3.6. Availability of Data and Statistics………………………………………………………………71
2.3.7. The Staff Monitored Programme of the IMF…………………………………………………...72
2.4. Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………….74

Chapter III. THE ENERGY SPHERE IN THE CONTEXT OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN
UZBEKISTAN
3.1. The Energy Sphere as Integral Part of the Development Strategy
3.1.1. National Priorities in the Energy Sector after Independence…………………………………...76
3.1.2. Organization of Decision-Making in the Energy Sector………………………………………..82
3.1.3. Main Producers in the Energy Sector…………………………..87
iii
???????3.1.4. Main Consumers of Energy Resources…………………………………………………………92
3.1.5. Contemporary Challenges in the Energy Sector…………………………..95
3.1.6. Strategy for Further Development
Urgent Tasks…………………………………………………………………………….98
Complementary Measures……………………………..101
3.2. Perspectives for Resource-Based Industrialization
3.2.1. Mineral Base…………………………………………………………………………………...105
3.2.2. What May It Bring ?……………………..108
3.3. Possible Scenarios of Development…….................................……………………………………111
3.4. Between Constraints and Opportunities…………………………………………………………...113
3.5. Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………...115

Chapter IV. THE ENERGY ISSUE IN THE CENTRAL ASIAN REGION
4.1. Energy Potential of the Region…………………………………………………………………….118
4.2. Common Development Challenges……………………..124
4.3. Intra-regional Priorities……………………………………………………………………………127
4.4. Growing International Interests
4.4.1. General Patterns……………………………………………………………………………….131
The USA……………….133
Russia…………………………………………………………………………………..136
China…………………..141
Iran……………………………………………………………………………………..144
The EU……………………………146
Turkey………………………………………………………………………………….149
4.4.2. Geopolitical Implications…………………………………………………………………...…151
4.5. Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………...157

Chapter V. INTEGRATION WITH THE WORLD ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
5.1. New Pillars of Foreign Trade Policy………………………………………………………………160
5.1.1. Necessity for Import Policy Adjustment………………………………………………………163
5.1.2. Rethinking Commodity-Based Policy Behavior………………169
5.1.3. Domestic Potential for Export Expansion and Diversification………………………………..173

5.2. The Significance of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in the Foreign Economic Strategy of
Uzbekistan
5.2.1. Necessity, Role, and Advantages of FDI in Economic Development: Global Trends and
Features………………………………………………………………………………………...180
5.2.2. Driving Forces of FDI Inflows………………………………………………………………...185
5.2.3. Legislative Guarantees for FDI…………………….191
iv
????????5.2.4. Government Regulation: Where Are The Limits?…………………………………………….198
5.2.5. Domestic Policy Coherence……………………………………………...205
5.2.6. Foreign Investment Policy Statement………………………………………………………….209
5.2.7. Promotion Campaign, or Information Component in National Investment Strategy………….211

5.3. Free Economic Zones……………………………………………………………………………...216
5.4. Summary………………………………………………...221

Chapter VI. THE PROSPECTS FOR REGIONAL (CENTRAL ASIAN) COOPERATION
6.1. Theoretical Aspects of Regionalism
6.1.1. Definition and Theories of Regionalism….............……………………………………..……225
6.1.2. Lessons From the International Past………………………………………………………….229

6.2. Central Asia: Vision, Reality, Challenges Ahead
6.2.1. History of Institutionalization……….......…………………………………………………....234
6.2.2. Confronting Reality
6.2.2.1. Economic Constraints on Regional Efforts………….…………………………………..240
6.2.2.2. Non-Economic Determinants………………………………………246
6.2.3. Shaping the Premises of Central Asian Cooperation…………………………………………249

6.3. The Scenarios of Prospective Regional Trends in Central Asia:
Priorities, Forms, Nature
6.3.1. Determinants of the Scenarios………………………………………………………………..255
6.3.2. Features of the Scenarios
6.3.2.1. Economic Bilateralism vs Multilateral Cooperation……………………………………256
6.3.2.2. Common Interests and Common Projects: Huge, but Untapped Potential……………..258
6.3.2.3. New Constitutionalism in Central Asia?……………………….……………………….264
6.3.3. General and Specific Constraints…………………………………………………………….268

6.4. Contribution of Foreign Partners
6.4.1. Mutually Beneficial Relations With “Good Neighborhood”…………………………………270
6.4.2. Importance of Coordination Among Foreign Partners……………………………..272
6.4.3. Methods to Promote Regional Cooperation………………………………76

6.5. Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………...279

VII. Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………..283

Annexes……………………………………………………………………………………………...…293

References...............................................................................................................................................312




vACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This study was accomplished within the research project „Conflict management, security, and
economic cooperation in Central Asia“ at the Institute of Political Science, the University of
Giessen in 2002-2005. This work is another attempt to rethink some general issues of
transformation from the planned to market system in Uzbekistan through the prism of energy policy,
regional cooperation, and sustainable development. It can also be as background reading among
series of studies on the strategies of political and economic reforms for Central Asian transition
societies.
Taking this opportunity, I owe a substantial debt to all those who directly and indirectly assisted me
in writing and preparation of the given research. First and foremost, my sincere gratitude to
Pr.Dr.Reimund Seidelmann for his parent-like wise, patient, helpful and encouraging leadership
over the whole project and all related issues, as well as for reading and critical but useful comments
throughout a long way of the preparatory process of this study. I also thank the Volkswagen
Foundation for the provided interest and financial support to put our project into life.
I am grateful to the members of various institutions and scholars in the region, both former and
present, including Dr.Ravshan Alimov, Dr.Alisher Fayzullaev, as well as to the University of World
Economy and Diplomacy and the Center for Economic Research in Tashkent for their assistance
and contributions to my successful activities within the project.
I am also indebted to Dr.Kirsten Westphal for reading and commenting different parts of the
research, as well as for editory work. My particular thanks to Annedore Messner and Johannes
Rank for their invaluable assistance to prepare various versions of the study.
Some ideas in this work is a product of hot and frank debates during the two international
conferences in Giessen (May 2003) and Tashkent (September 2004), and those within our regular
team meetings with my friends and project colleagues Doerthe List, Khurshidbek Inomjonov,
Aynura Asakeeva and Azamat Nurmatov who set up an unprecedented favorable atmosphere to
enjoy the work and for which I am very much thankful too. I also appreciate all the contributions
made by the scholars and research