Environment, energy, and economic performance [Elektronische Ressource] / vorgelegt von Ulrich Oberndorfer

Oberndorfer.Ulrich

Informations

• Publié par: carl_von_ossietzky_universitat_oldenburg
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2009
• Nombre de lectures: 23
• Langue: Deutsch

Extrait

Environment, Energy, and Economic
Performance


Von der
Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg
– Fakultät II für Informatik, Wirtschafts- und Rechtswissenschaften –
genehmigte

DISSERTATION
zur Erlangung des Grades eines
Doktors der Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Dr. rer. pol.)

vorgelegt von
Ulrich Oberndorfer
geboren am 06. März 1981 in Weiden i.d. Opf.


Referent:
Prof. Dr. Christoph Böhringer

Koreferenten:
Prof. Dr. Heinz Welsch
Prof. Dr. Michael Rauscher, Universität Rostock

Einreichung der Dissertation: 09. November 2008
Tag der Disputation: 25. September 20091



Kurzzusammenfassung

Die vorliegende Dissertation analysiert das Verhältnis zwischen einerseits
ökonomischem Erfolg, und andererseits Umweltregulierung und
Energiemarktentwicklungen. Vor dem Hintergrund, dass negative ökonomische
Effekte ein weitverbreiteter Einwand gegenüber ambitionierter Umweltpolitik
sind, sucht diese Dissertation vor allem nach empirischer Evidenz. Dabei wird
aufgezeigt, dass die ökonomischen Folgen der jüngsten Klimapolitik der
Europäischen Union im besten Falle gering waren. Konsistent mit der
ökonomischen Theorie wird als Hauptgrund dafür die geringe Stringenz der
Regulierung identifiziert. Die Ausgestaltung von Umweltpolitik wird wiederum in
den Zusammenhang polit-ökonomischer Mechanismen gestellt. Zudem zeigt diese
Dissertation die wichtige Rolle von Investitionen in umweltfreundliche
Technologien und Produkte auf, die eine Stimulation von Investitionen durch
Umweltpolitik nahelegt. Weiterhin eröffnet die vorliegende Arbeit neue Einblicke
in die ökonomischen Konsequenzen von Energiemarktentwicklungen. Sie enthält
eine erste Analyse der Aktienmarkteffekte des Europäischen
Emissionshandelssystems. Darin wird aufgezeigt, dass der Firmenwert
aktiengehandelter europäischer Stromerzeuger vom Preis der
Verschmutzungsrechte abhängig ist. Schließlich unterstreicht diese Arbeit die
Relevanz der Energiemärkte für die gesamte Volkswirtschaft. Der Ölmarkt wird
dabei als der – aus Sicht der Finanzmärkte – wichtigste Energiemarkt identifiziert.
Dabei wird aufgezeigt, dass nicht nur Ölpreis-, sondern auch
Ölvolatilitätsschwankungen auf den Aktienmarkt und damit den Wert von
Aktiengesellschaften wirken. In diesem Zusammenhang belegt die Arbeit die
Relevanz von Ölpreisschocks für die Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland.
Insbesondere illustriert sie, dass der Ölpreis trotz Energieeffizienzsteigerungen
auch in jüngster Zeit auf die deutsche Volkswirtschaft wirkt. Dies suggeriert einen
signifikanten Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland im Falle einer erneuten
Ölkrise.
2



Abstract

This thesis analyzes the relationship between environmental regulation as well as
energy market developments on the one hand, and economic performance on the
other. Due to its economic effects environmental regulation is controversially
disputed. The thesis shows, however, that the economic impacts of the recently
adopted climate policy in Europe, namely of the implementation of the European
Union Emission Trading Scheme, have been modest at most. Consistent with
economic theory, the low stringency of this regulatory measure that is aimed at
combating man-made climate change is identified as one important driver of this
result. Moreover, results presented in this thesis also indicate the important role
which the political economy plays for the design of environmental regulation in
general. These mechanisms are shown to be a driver of the low stringency and,
consequently, of the small economic effects during the first phase of the European
Union Emission Trading Scheme. The thesis highlights the role of investment
stimulation if the goal of environmental regulation is not only the protection of the
environment, but also the compatibility with economic goals. This thesis also
provides new insights into the role of energy market developments for the
economy. In this respect, the relevance of the EU carbon market for the financial
market performance of European electricity generators is shown. Besides, this
thesis particularly demonstrates the paramount importance of oil market
developments for the economy as a whole. It suggests that amongst all natural
resources, oil is the most relevant one to the pricing of Eurozone energy stocks. It
is also shown that besides oil prices, oil volatility plays an important role for stock
market development. Finally, the thesis highlights the relevance of oil market
developments to the overall economy, in showing that unemployment in Germany
is strongly affected by oil price shocks. In this respect, it also opposes claims that
the German oil to macroeconomy relationship has weakened since the 1980s. This
suggests that an emerging oil crisis would imply a significant increase in German
unemployment. 3



Acknowledgements

This dissertation was accomplished while I was a research fellow at the Centre for
European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim. I would like to express my
gratitude to a number of persons without whom this thesis would not have been
possible. First of all, I would like to thank Christoph Böhringer for encouraging
my scientific interest in the topics covered by this thesis, for scientific advice, and
support. Moreover, I would particularly like to thank Heinz Welsch for many
helpful comments and suggestions, and Andreas Löschel, head of ZEW’s
department Environmental and Resource Economics, Environmental
Management, for his ideas, encouragement and support during my stay at the
ZEW.

Besides them, I would like to thank many friends, colleagues and co-authors
particularly from the ZEW for their support, their helpful comments and
suggestions and – last, but not least – for making the time of my dissertation
research as pleasant as it was. To name just a few, I would like to thank Victoria
Alexeeva-Talebi, Niels Anger, Astrid Dannenberg, Tim Hoffmann, Andreas
Keller, Andreas Lange, Tim Mennel, Ulf Moslener, Andreas Schrimpf, Dirk
Ulbricht, Alexander F. Wagner, and Andreas Ziegler.

I am grateful for comments and suggestions of partly anonymous referees of
selected chapters of this thesis, and of participants at national and international
conferences where I have presented my work. This includes the participants of
congresses of the European Economic Association, the European Association of
Ecological Economics, the European Association of Environmental and Resource
Economists, the International Association for Energy Economics, the Public
Choice Societies, and of the Spring Meeting of Young Economists.

Moreover, I would like to thank the participants of the colloquium at the Carl von
Ossietzky University Oldenburg, of workshops of the Ph.D. network on
International Climate Policy and the Research Committee Environmental and 4

Resource Economics of the Verein für Socialpolitik, and of other workshops in
Berlin, Dresden, and Mannheim for helpful comments and discussions. Financial
support particularly from the ZEW, but also from the Anglo-German Foundation,
the European Commission, the Fritz Thyssen Foundation, the German Federal
Environment Agency, the Swiss National Science Foundation, the UK
Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, and the World Wide
Fund For Nature International is gratefully acknowledged. 5



Contents


1. Introduction........................................................................................................14
2. Environmental Regulation and Economic Performance...................................26
2.1. Public Interest vs. Interest Groups: Allowance Allocation in the EU
Emission Trading Scheme .................................................................................27
2.1.1. Introduction..........................................................................................27
2.1.2. Theoretical Framework........................................................................30
2.1.3. Empirical Analysis for Germany .........................................................39
2.1.4. Conclusions52
2.2. Firm Performance and Employment in the EU Emission Trading
Scheme: An Empirical Assessment for Germany..............................................55
2.2.1. Introduction55
2.2.2. Literature Review ................................................................................57
2.2.3. Data and Variables...............................................................................60
2.2.4. Econometric Analysis for Germany ....................................................64
2.2.5. Conclusions..........................................................................................70
2.3. Clean and Productive? Evidence from the German
Manufacturing Industry .....................................................................................72
2.3.1. Introduction72
2.3.2. Theoreti