Le siècle de la contingence ? - article ; n°1 ; vol.1, pg 97-104

Vingtième Siècle. Revue d'histoire - Année 1984 - Volume 1 - Numéro 1 - Pages 97-104The century of contingency ?, René RémondVirtually all forecasts have corne to naught during the 20th century. This chronic discrepancy between prediction and reality confronts the contemporary historian with the central role of contingency, the irritating challenge to his desire to explain logically the passing of time. Population, economy, culture, and above all, politics — no field of human activity manages to escape the accident of contingency. The historian, therefore, has to avoid two contrary excesses : attributing to events a spurious logic, and making the flow of things depend on minor causes. Only the historian can show that all situations have a variety of possible future scenarios, and that choice is always irreversible.8 pagesSource : Persée ; Ministère de la jeunesse, de l’éducation nationale et de la recherche, Direction de l’enseignement supérieur, Sous-direction des bibliothèques et de la documentation.