Poland's integration into the world economy [Elektronische Ressource] : foreign direct investment and the skill premium / vorgelegt von Andzelika Lorentowicz

Lorentowicz, Andzelika

Informations

• Publié par: ludwig-maximilians-universitat_munchen
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2006
• Nombre de lectures: 7
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 7 Mo

Extrait

Poland’s Integration
into the World Economy:
Foreign Direct Investment
and the Skill Premium
Inaugural-Dissertation
zur Erlangung des Grades
Doctor oeconomiae publicae (Dr. oec. publ.)
an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat¨
Munc¨ hen
2005 vorgelegt von
Andzelika Lorentowicz
Referent: Professor Dr. Dalia Marin
Korreferent: Professor Dr. Andreas Haufler
Promotionsabschlussberatung: 8. Februar 2006Contents
Contents I
List of Figures IV
List of Tables V
1 Introduction 1
2 FDI and the Skill Premium in Poland 7
2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.2 Review of the Empirical Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.3 The Model of International Outsourcing . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.4 FDI in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.4.1 The Role of FDI in the Polish Economy . . . . . . . . 19
2.5 Skills, Wages and Employment in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.5.1 Wages and Employment in Manufacturing . . . . . . . 23
2.6 Foreign Fixed Assets and the Labor
Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.7 Empirical Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.8 Data, Explanatory Variables and Estimation Strategy . . . . . 29
2.8.1 Data and Explanatory Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.8.2 Estimation Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.9 Results of Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.9.1 Fixed Effects Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.9.2 Robustness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
I2.10 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.11 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3 Technology and Trade: Predicted Wage Inequality Changes
in Poland 42
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.2 The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3.2.1 Relative Labor Demand Schedule in Heckscher-Ohlin
Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.3 Empirical Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.4 Review of Product Price Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
3.4.1 Summary of Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
3.5 Estimation Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
3.6 Variables and Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3.6.1 Structural Variables for the First Stage . . . . . . . . . 60
3.6.2 Dependent Variables for the Second Stage . . . . . . . 62
3.6.3 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.7 Estimation Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.7.1 One-Stage Mandated Wage Regressions . . . . . . . . . 63
3.7.2 First Stage Regressions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.7.3 Second Stage Regressions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.8 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
3.9 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
4 Location Determinants of Export-oriented versus Market-
seeking FDI in Poland 76
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
4.2 Related Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
4.2.1 Theoretical Foundations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
4.2.2 Survey of Empirical Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
4.3 Background on Regional Development
in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
4.3.1 GDP and GDP per Capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
II4.3.2 Employment Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.3.3 Labor Costs and Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
4.3.4 Foreign Investors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
4.4 Estimation and Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4.4.1 Estimation Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
4.4.2 Remarks on Definition of Vertical and
Horizontal FDI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
4.4.3 Explanatory Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
4.4.4 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
4.5 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
4.5.1 All Foreign Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
4.5.2 Market-seeking versus Export-oriented FDI . . . . . . . 126
4.5.3 Robustness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
4.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
4.7 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
5 Summary of Results and the Contribution of the Thesis 142
Bibliography 146
IIIList of Figures
2.1 Outsourcing from the North to the South (Feenstra and Han-
son (1996a)) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.2 The Evolution of Real Wages in Polish Manufacturing (in
PLN, 1993 prices) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.3 Relative Wages, Relative Employment and Non-Production
Workers’ Wage Share in Polish Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . 24
2.4 Foreign Fixed Assets, Relative Wages and Relative Employ-
ment of Non-Production Workers in Manufacturing Sectors in
Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.1 Relative Labor Demand in Heckscher-Ohlin Model . . . . . . . 48
4.1 Regional GDP in Poland in 1995 and 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . 98
4.2 Regional GDP per Capita in Poland in 1995 and 2002 . . . . . 99
4.3 Employment by Kinds of Activity in Polish Regions in 1995
and 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
4.4 Average Wages across Polish Regions in 1995 and 2003 . . . . 103
4.5 Unit Labor Costs across Polish Regions in 1995 and 2002 . . . 104
4.6 Shares of Employment in Foreign Firms in Total Employment
in Polish Regions in 1996 and 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
4.7 Shares of Exports in Foreign Firms’ Revenues in Polish Re-
gions in 1996 and 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
4.8 The Distribution of Special Economic Zones in Poland . . . . 120
4.9 Poland in 1831 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
4.10 Poland today . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
IVList of Tables
1.1 Skill Endowments of Main Trading Partners of Poland in 1998 5
2.1 Foreign Direct Investment in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
a2.2 Structure of Foreign Direct Investment Stock (end of 2002) . 21
2.3 Wages and Composition of Employment According to Educa-
ational Levels in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.4 Foreign Investors and Demand for High-Skilled Labor . . . . . 33
2.5 Foreign Investors and Decomposed Demand for High-Skilled
Labor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
2.6 Foreign Investors and Demand for High-Skilled Labor (GMM) 37
2.7 Foreign Investors and Decomposed Demand for High-Skilled
Labor (GMM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
2.8 Definition and Source of Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
3.1 “Consistency Check” Regressions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
3.2 One-Stage Mandated Wage Regressions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
3.3 First Stage Regressions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
3.4 Second Stage Regressions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
4.1 Empirical Evidence on Determinants of FDI’s Location Choices 94
4.2 Sectoral Breakdown of Employment in Foreign Firms in Polish
Voivodships (2002), in Percent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
4.3 Composition of Foreign Firms’ Equity in Voivodships by
Country (2002), in Percent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
4.4 Location Decision: Employment Share (I) . . . . . . . . . . . 123
V4.5 Location Decision: Employment Share (II) . . . . . . . . . . . 124
4.6 Location Decision: Export Share (I) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
4.7 Location Decision: Export Share (II) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
4.8 Location Decision: Foreign Firms’ Export Share in Regional
Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
4.9 Location Decision: Foreign Firms’ Local Sales Share in Re-
gional Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
4.10 Definition and Source of Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
4.11 Infrastructure Taxonomy of Polish Regions . . . . . . . . . . . 141
VIList of Abbreviations
CEE Central and Eastern Europe
COMECON Council for Mutual Economic Assistance
EU European Union
IMF International Monetary Fund
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GMM General Method of Moments
IV Instrumental Variables
MNE Multinational Enterprise
NACE Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community
NBER National Bureau of Economic Research
NEG New Economic Geography
NIE Newly Industrialized Economies
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OLS Ordinary Least Squares
PAIiIZ Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency
PCSE Panel-Corrected Standard Error
PGSS Polish General Social Survey
PLN Polish Zloty
PSO Polish Statistical Office
R&D Research and Development
S