Population Aging

Daniel Cotlear

Description

Latin America and the Caribbean will soon face the challenges of an aging population. This process, which took over a century in the rich world, will occur in two or three decades in the developing world; seven of the 25 countries that will age more rapidly are in LAC. Population aging will pose challenges and offer opportunities.
This book explores three sets of issues. First is a group of issues related to the support of the aging and poverty in the life cycle. This covers questions of work and retirement, income and wealth, and living arrangements and intergenerational transfers. It also explores the relation between the life cycle and poverty. Second is the question of the health transition. How does the demographic transition impact the health status of the population and the demand for health care? And how advanced is the health transition in LAC? Third is an understanding of the fiscal pressures that are likely to accompany population aging and to disentangle the role of demography from the role of policy in that process.
This book provides an introduction to the concepts and techniques at the intersection of demography and economics. It summarizes the policy debate about potential reforms needed to make population aging an opportunity for development.

Sujets

• Human development
• Population ageing
• Fiscal policy
• Demographic transition
• Epidemiological transition
• Health

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 13 décembre 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 52
• EAN13: 9780821384695
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 6 Mo

Extrait

DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT
Human Development
Population Aging
Is Latin America Ready?
Daniel Cotlear, EditorPopulation AgingPopulation Aging
Is Latin America Ready?
Edited by Daniel Cotlear© 2011 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
Telephone: [phone]
Internet: www.worldbank.org
All rights reserved
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This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this
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ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-8487-9
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8469-5
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8487-9
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Population aging: Is Latin America Ready? / Daniel Cotlear, editor.
p. cm. — (Directions in development)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8213-8487-9 (alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-8213-8469-5 (ebook)
1. Population aging—Social aspects—Latin America—Congresses. 2. Population aging—Social
aspects—Caribbean Area—Congresses. 3. Population aging—Economic aspects—Latin America—
Congresses. 4. Population aging—Economic aspects—Caribbean Area—Congresses. 5. Population
aging—Health aspects—Latin America—Congresses. 6. Population aging—Health aspects—
Caribbean Area—Congresses. 7. Older people—Latin America—Economic conditions. 8. Older
people—Caribbean Area—Economic conditions. I. Cotlear, Daniel.
HQ1064.L29P67 2010
305.26098—dc22
2010031650
Cover design by Quantum Think
Cover photo by [e-mail]
Preface xvii
Acknowledgments xxi
About the Authors xxiii
Abbreviations xxvii
Chapter 1 Population Aging: Is Latin America Ready? 1
Daniel Cotlear
Introduction 1
Support of the Elderly and Poverty in the
Life Cycle 16
The Impact of Population Aging on Health Status
and Health Care Demand 22opulation Aging on
Public Expenditures 27
Conclusions and Implications 31
Notes 36
References 38
vvi Contents
Chapter 2 Demographic Trends in Latin America and the
Caribbean 43
Paulo M. Saad
Introduction 43
Trends in Mortality, Fertility, and Migration 44
Changes in Population Size and Age Structure 51
Demographic Transition, Dependency Ratios,
and Demographic Dividend 55
Taking Advantage of the Demographic Dividend
to Face the Challenges of Population Aging 64
Annex 2.1 Population Projection, Dependency
Ratio, and Demographic Dividend under
Different Demographic Assumptions 65
Notes 75
References 75
Chapter 3 Poverty, the Aging, and the Life Cycle
in Latin America 79
Daniel Cotlear and Leopoldo Tornarolli
Introduction 79
Demographic and Residence Indicators in
Latin America 80
Poverty at Different Ages: Methodological Notes 83
PAges: Empirical Evidence 87
Drivers of Old-age Poverty and the Role
of Pensions and Other Transfers 101
The Labor Market and Old-age Poverty 113
Inequality among the Aging 118
Living Arrangements of the Aging and
Familial Transfers 119
Conclusions 130
Notes 131
References 132
Chapter 4 How Age Influences the Demand for
Health Care in Latin America 135
André C. Medici
Introduction 135
Objectives, Data, and Concepts 136Contents vii
Health Needs in LAC 138
Trends in Health Care Utilization by
Age in LAC 161
Health Expenditures and Health
Costs by Age 172
Conclusions 180
Notes 183
References 185
Chapter 5 The Economics of Happiness and Health Policy:
How Health Norms Vary across Cohorts in
Latin America 191
Carol Graham
The Economics of Happiness 193
Norms of Health: The Example
of Obesity 198
Health Satisfaction in Latin America 200
Valuing Different Health Conditions in
Latin America Based on the EQ-5D 201
Lessons for Policy 205
Notes 206
References 208
Chapter 6 Who Benefits from Public Transfers?
Incidence across Income Groups and
across Generations in Brazil and Chile 211
Cassio M. Turra, Mauricio Holz,
and Daniel Cotlear
Introduction 211
Methods 213
Benefit Incidence by Sector 215
The Incidence of Aggregate Public
Expenditures 220
Larger Support for One Generation: Is there
a Global Model? 225
Conclusions 228
Notes 230
References 231viii Contents
Chapter 7 The Fiscal Impact of Demographic Change
in Ten Latin American Countries:
Projecting Public Expenditures in
Education, Health, and Pensions 233
Tim Miller, Carl Mason, and Mauricio Holz
Introduction 233
The Influence of Demography and Policy
on Current Levels of Public Spending 235aphic and Policy
Change on Future Public Spending on
Education, Pensions, and Health Care 247
Fiscal Impact of Population Aging in
Latin America 264
Notes 270
References 270
Index 273
Figures
1.1 A Century of Changes in the LAC
Population Structure 6
1.2 Life Expectancy at Birth and Total Fertility Rate
in LAC, 2005–10 7
1.3 The Economic Life Cycle in LAC 12
1.4 Population Over 60 Receiving a Pension, Percent 14
1.5 Poverty among Children and the Aging 17
1.6 Sources of Income for the Aging Population, Percent 20
1.7 Probability of Dying between the Ages
of 5 to 59, (2001) 23
2.1 Life Expectancy at Birth in Selected LAC Countries,
1950–2050 46
2.2 Total Fertility Rate in Selected LAC Countries,
1950–2050 48
2.3 Natural and Total Growth Rates in LAC,
by Country, 2005–10 50
2.4 Population Growth Rates by Major Age Group
in LAC, 1950–2050 52
2.5 Population by Age Group in LAC, 1950–2050 53